T Nation

S&P 500 Below 200 Day Moving Average


I am now mostly out of stocks, looking for at least another 30 to 40% drop.

The CAPE (10 averaged PE ratio) is a also very high historically.

What are the tools that you guys use?



I don't use the 200 day ma. I use trend lines and support levels. When the S&P broke the 1200 level it was very significant to me and I sold everything except Peru and an Israeli stock. Since then we've put in two bottoms, the second one slightly higher than the first. I like to see that. If this current run up can put in a higher high it will get back over 1200 and to me that's an indication that this was just a correction. I would start getting back in the market if that is the case.

I would really prefer it to just keep dropping so I can get some fantastic bargain deals.


Security analysis and value investing. The last time I made a move was two quarters ago, and am now waiting to find something to buy.


I have had pretty good luck playing the 200 day MA, get whipsawed once in a while but keeps me out of some bad bear markets. Also don't like the CAPE at 20...that's just too darned high historically. When it gets down to about 14 or so, then I'd be buying again.


Elliot wave, Fibonacci ratios, chart structure, extremes in sentiment, historical perspective, and that gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach that says were are about to be ass banged with a barbed dick.