Russian Military Buildup Outside Ukraine

So, what is the Russian (public) reasoning for invading Ukraine?

Will Russia be able to rule Ukraine if they do invade, or will it be a guerilla nightmare?

How should NATO, the USA, and the rest of the world respond now, and also after a Russian offensive has begun?

Putin’s slipping poll numbers. Anytime they dip too far, it’s time to whoop up on Ukraine.

All very interesting questions, and I’m curious if other have thoughts on this. Haven’t much decided on it myself.

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As someone who lives in an ex-USSR country, on the border with Russia, i will start with a bit of history -
I find it intereseting how aftter “Allied Forces” won WW2, Russia somehow gets romanticized in America.
A super quick history - after Allies “saved the world from Hitler” , US and UK forces went back to their dreamland with food and fat people.
Russia, however, took control of half the Europe, and started devastating those countries more than Hitler ever did.
Hitler was an asshole to jews, but Stalin… well… he just wanted everyone to die. There are lots of data on how Stalin actually killed more people than Hitler did, its just that the info is super unpopular because it would mean that US actually helped.
Anyway, Stalin just starved to death millions of people just to get rid of them. Took away properties from everyone and just gave it away to russians. My family owned 3 buildings in a capital, which were taken and just given to russian workers to live in for free. In fact, to this day, even tho we have the buildings back, there are some people we cant evict because of laws, they live for free and make debts for water and electricity, which we have to pay for.

Anyway, because of this politics, most eastern europe, and Ukraine also, is populated with russians alot. Some countries managed to get rid of them a bit better than others. Mine didnt. Ukraine didnt.
So basically 90s come along, USSR crumbles, capitalism kicks in.
Before that, government gave you job, medicine and school for free. You had money, but nothing to buy with it. No one had anything good. My grandmothers appartment looks exactly the same as any other appartment in that building as in USSR all the stuff was identical.
In fact, there is a Russian comedy from 70s about a guy who got drunk and went to the wrong house and wrong appartment and lived there for 2 days before he understood he is not at his home.

When capitalism kicked in, people started creating busineses. But as it is with capitalism - not everyone succeeds. So people who havent addapted and succeeded - mostly russians, they start to live in memories of their childhood, when everyone had jobs and money.
Like in Undisputed 2, when american fighter talked with russian fighter, american said : “in my world there aint shit for free” and russian said : “i my world everything is free but its all shit”.
I guess, when you dont have anything, you are ok with having shit also.

A long time has passed and many russians scattered around the world, who havent succeeded in modern world, start to live in memories and legends about “the old days”. They see Putin as a leader of something great. Being a russian is nothing special in Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine, etc, so its easy to get caught into Putins bullshit about how great Russia is.
Fun fact - actual russians in Russia dont think that russians in other countries are “real russians” so the ones we have here are actually NOT welcome in Russia. They just rarelly know that.

Russian mentality in the world could be something simmilar to what Americans have - called hillbillies? I mean those guys with confederate flags, still hating on different races, still thinking they will bring back slavery or shit? Like, they dont understand enough, so they are stuck into fact that being white is good, even tho even whites know that those rednecks(?) are the lowest people ever.
Its simmilar with russians - like 50% of russians in every country are like redneck idiots who just dream about USSR being created again.

So now back to Ukraine and other countries Russia always tries to fuck with.
There are these russian rednecks in every country who say that this country hates them, took away their jobs etc, so Putin uses the excuse of “freeing his people” and helping them.
In my country we also have whole cities populated only by Russians and if they would call for “help” Putin would be on our border also. In fact, he actually is. At least once a year Russia does these military “trainings” on the borders of Ukraine, Baltics, etc, which are mostly like demonstration of power.

Putin also knows that he can do what he wants because lets be real - America does not give a shit, NOR should they. If i was American, i wouldnt want my son to go and die for some shit country also. It just creates this huge problem of no one helping, and Putin knowing that.
He already killed thousands of Ukrainians when he anected Crimea and the world just let that slide. Its round 2 for Ukraine.

As much as i know, Ukraine now says they are twice as ready. My country has sent help also last week.
We know we have to stick together because if Russia invades Ukraine and gets away with it, we are next. Thats why these border countries stick together.
Sad fact is that even if we all combine our forces we still make up for like 1/10th of what Russia has.
The only hope we have is the opposition in Russia because not all russians are retarded idiots. There are many young people who want to be a part of the modern world, and we kind of hope that these people wont let their sons to die for this stupid shit.
But sadly, being in Russian military is a proud thing and of course - being on the winning side is cool.
Imagine you being a poor 20yr old from nowhere, and Putin saying : “we are 100 to 1, we will win, we will conquer them and you can take their stuff”. Most people do agree without thinking.

Russia acts simmilar to North Korea only they actually practice that shit.
For those who dont know or forgot - Russia already invaded Ukraine 8 years ago. There were dead bodies hanged in electrical wires and every kind of gore you can see in movies.
I find it funny how 8 years ago Russia invaded Ukraine, took away Crimea, but now world wonders “will Russia attack?”… I mean - why the fuck not? They did it super successfully just 8 years back.

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However, to clarify that there are some details that most here are probably not familiar with. Crimea was part of the Russian Empire for over 200 years and then part of Ukraine, which was part of the USSR. But how he became part of Ukraine. The answer is that during the Soviet era, Crimea was ceded -even literally donated to Ukraine by then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who was an ethnic Ukrainian. Many people have found this unfair, as the majority of Crimean residents are ethnic Russians, not Ukrainians. Yes, there was an attack on a sovereign state, but for the conquest of a territory that was largely inhabited by Russians and that had been Russian for centuries. I’m just saying this not to justify the Russians, but I think it’s good to be known by those who are interested.
I also want to say that there are ethnic Russians in the former Soviet republics, not in the former communist countries that were not part of the USSR. At least in my country you can meet Russians only in summer resorts, where many of them have bought houses and apartments live there all year round. But they are a drop in the face of the rest of the population.

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You are correct about Crimea.
Then again, Baltic States, one of which i live in, were a part of so called Livonia, for 700 years. It was a German rulled kingdom. Lots of our culture is germanic, lots of words in our language ar the same as in german language, lots of peoples names are also germanic.
In fact, in WW2, Hitler had a plan to not destroy latvians and estonians because of this fact as he believe that there is a lot of german blood in us. Sure, his plan was to enslave, not kill, but still… my point is - i dont think its ok for Germany to start a war, kill our people and take these countries because for 700 years they belonged to them and we still sound a bit german. Russians wanted that great spot for military bases. They dont give a shit about half the lands they already have, for example. It wasnt because of their big love for history of that place. It was just a cool reason to start a war.
Just like now, Putin claims that he is only defending himself from NATO. He dislikes the fact that there are NATO military around his borders so he just fights against that. Technically, the whole problem with him and Ukraine is the fact that he wants NATO forces gone from his sight. When you look at it that way it almost sounds reasonable. He is afraid that NATO will use Ukraine to invade Russia. Poor Putin.

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I am aware. The Baltic states have nothing in common in terms of culture, traditions and development with the Russians. They are much closer to Western culture and mentality. The Lithuanian principality, for example, was a serious state centuries ago.
I am Balkan. The mentality of the majority of people from these countries in most things of everyday life is much closer to the Orient than to Western European culture. whatever they say is seen all the time. But let’s not deviate from the topic. By no means do I support any invasion of a sovereign state. I hope there is no trouble.

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Exchanged for Belgorod oblast. If the Russians claim that giving AP Crimea to the Ukraninian SSR was a gift, then surely they will give Belgorod back they’ve been given by Khruschev in exchange for Crimea?

Racist but not far from the truth. They’re extremely incensed by the higher living standards of former subjected peoples.

And it’s not that different when an religous/ethnic group dominates a military-security apparatus and suddenly loses that status and finds itself having to fight it with former subjugates peoples out in something resembling a free market system. The anger can be very palpable.

You’ve probably missed it, but China is slowly making Russia their bitch. In the future Xi will use Russia as a giant North Korea.

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i hope so, because in here we are afraid that China will HELP Russia. We know all there is to know about Putin, so Xi would at least be POSSIBLY MAYBE less of a threat. To be honest, my country sucks and most countries around also suck - there is nothing to take. Putin just does this shit out of spite.
A good violent leader wouldnt waste his time on this little garbage country.

This is the ‘biden needs a ratings boost’ war. 1.2.3.4. we don’t want your fucking war…

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Why do you talk like that about your country and I guess the other Baltic states. I am left with the impression that in Latvia you have a very good standard of living and in general the country is very well regulated. Maybe I’m wrong and you know best.

So, Putin justifies an invasion of Ukraine as a preemptive strike against NATO aggression… Despite Ukraine not being a NATO member? Or, is Putin saying that he’s liberating Russians from illegitimate Ukrainian rule? How is the Putin regime justifying this military action to the Russian people?

Does anyone here think the USA should respond? If so, why?

I’m on the fence here, but my thoughts are:

  • we shouldn’t intervene because it’s simply not our fucking problem, and we wouldn’t get the same support if the roles were reversed.
  • we should intervene because Russia/China have been consistently pushing aggressive moves virtually unobstructed. They will continue to push the envelope until the line in the sand is drawn, ie. once Ukraine falls, who’s Russia going to overthrow next/when does it stop?
  • speaking of China, if Russia doesn’t receive international pushback in their invading of Ukraine, China will see no reason why they shouldn’t invade Taiwan.

This conflict, i believe, can set the precedent. At least for a little while.

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Militarily? No
In some other way? Yes, but I admit I don’t know what would be appropriate. Definitely shut down the pipeline to Germany. I think sanctions are probably a joke.

Restoration of the Empire, with “empire” meaning both the USSR and Tsarist Russia simultaneously.

In addition, there’s the problem of Ukraine moving West as a general concept. It shows that non-authoritarian rule among East Slavic peoples is possible and therefore it has to be snuffed out as soon as possible. Otherwise the new generation of Russians may get strange ideas…

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Unless I’m misunderstanding, dont these two sentiments conflict?

Sanctions against a country with little trade tend to not do much from what we’ve seen with North Korea, Iran, etc. personal opinion there.

I don’t think they conflict. Shut the pipeline. That hurts Russia and keeps them having the Germans dependent on them. The sanctions (from what I can tell) are going to be aimed at individuals rather than the country as a whole. I think that’s useless.

I thought shutting the pipeline, as a deterrent to Russia invading Ukraine, would effectively be a sanction, in this scenario. I could stand to be better read on the pipeline situation though

its one of the poorest countries in Europe… average salary is like 800usd a month, food costs just as much as in United States. And owning an actual house, is something that rich people have. Everyone else squeezes 4 family members into 1 bedroom appartment. Well… its sure better than most African countries, but for 21st century Western cilvilization its pretty much shit.
Sure it always can be worse.

I believe there are some forces in Ukraine. And yes, exactly because Ukraine is not in NATO, Putin can use this as an excuse - if any NATO country supports Ukraine, he can say that NATO forces threaten his borders.

There are different versions and reasons used. What he says as a politician, what he says to people, etc. Its multi-layered problem.

He scares his people.
There are actual videos on russian news, how Latvian people beat up russians who live here. While, the agressors are russians. 95% of prison inmates in Latvia are russian, for example. Our Police doesnt even need latvian language to work - they only need russian - i know that as i wanted to be in the police.
He says that USA wants to destroy them, Baltics laugh at them, and NATO will use Ukraine as a door to invade Russia.
So 1)he scares his people…2)his people WANT the war, because of reasons i mentioned earlier in my other topics.

All the small countries like mine, look at USA like we look at god.
I train air forces in my country, and we have some American troops there and everyone looks at them in awe like : “hey look, look - americans… yea, like in the movies”.
So all the little shit countries want help from anyone they can get because as i mentioned - all the countries with border with Russia combined, doesnt make up large enough force to do anything to Russia.

But if id had to be honest and objective - i dont think American boys should go and die for someone else.
What i do think needs to be done, is some sort of safer, agressive way. Idk, nuke the fukcers from the distance. Like - launch a few bombs, and then we will finish em ourselves.
I believe that as far as politics or ranged attacks go - USA should help, because USA stands for moral high grounds, but i dont think Americans should come and die for me, for example. But if they could safely launch some drones, or fuck up Putins internet and bank accounts or something, that would be cool - as long as it doesnt cost the lives of your people.
Ukrainians are ready to die. They already live in trenches all winter. If USA could drop a few bombs, so it just evens the size of the military a bit, we would be very thankful, haha.

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I clearly understood. According to official statistics, we are the poorest country in the European Union. But these data are quite false, because the so-called gray economy is being applied in full force. Your boss signs a contract for one salary, transfers it to your account and provides you with the amount specified in the contract, but at the end of the month he gives you more money on hand, sometimes double and triple what is written in the contract. Also in our country 80% of people are homeowners. They may not live in them and pay a mortgage for a better home, but there is a place to go if the bank takes their mortgaged home. Personally, I have never been attracted to any other country. I live wonderfully in my country, and let the statistics say that we were the poorest in the European Union.

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