T Nation

Ron Beats Rudy in NH?

Here’s hoping:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/cc/?id=110011060

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
Here’s hoping:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/cc/?id=110011060[/quote]

If Paul struggles to come in third ahead of Rudy who I don’t think is contesting NH (the Live Free or Die State) he should shut down his campaign and give the money back.

Edited

For Rudy, life begins after Iowa, NH and SC:

FL: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html

CA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_republican_primary-258.html

MI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

NV: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_republican_caucus-235.html

PA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_republican_primary-239.html

NJ: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_republican_primary-245.html

I’m surprised at how well Huckabee is doing in FL - but realistically Guiliani should take FL and CA - Mitt will probably take NH and MI. Huckabee will probably get SC. Not sure which of Huckabee and Mitt will get IA. But then Guiliani will get NJ, PA, and a bunch of others on the East Coast.

I’d like to see McCain pull something out - I think he’s the least bad candidate. But right now I’d still bet on Guiliani.

ADDENDUM: But apparently at least one or two smart people who follow these things think the trend points to a showdown between Mitt and McCain, so we’ll see: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmExYzVmNDY4NmUzNDI5OWJkMzgzN2M1OTFhZjVlYTA

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[quote]Mick28 wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:
Here’s hoping:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/cc/?id=110011060

Yes, if Paul just barely gets beaten by someone who has spent no money and time in that particular state…well then he’s a shoe in to be the next President.
[/quote]

I think the vast majority of Paul supporters are well aware he won’t be our next president. But the longer he stays in the race, the more influence his ideas (i.e. the Constitution) will have.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
For Rudy, life begins after Iowa, NH and SC:

FL: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html

CA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_republican_primary-258.html

MI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

NV: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_republican_caucus-235.html

PA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_republican_primary-239.html

NJ: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_republican_primary-245.html

I’m surprised at how well Huckabee is doing in FL - but realistically Guiliani should take FL and CA - Mitt will probably take NH and MI. Huckabee will probably get SC. Not sure which of Huckabee and Mitt will get IA. But then Guiliani will get NJ, PA, and a bunch of others on the East Coast.

I’d like to see McCain pull something out - I think he’s the least bad candidate. But right now I’d still bet on Guiliani.
[/quote]

I think you’re wrong on that. I think Giuliani’s campaign is collapsing, and I don’t feel that way just because I can’t stand him. For him to go 0-4 in the opening primaries, some of which he’ll be a complete non-factor in, and then suddenly explode in Florida seems far-fetched. In all the hype over the early primaries, all the free media that comes with it (worth millions or tens of millions of dollars), Giuliani will be MIA.

It’ll come down to Huckabee and Romney, outside chance McCain builds momentum after winning NH (I hope he does).

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
But the longer he stays in the race, the more influence his ideas (i.e. the Constitution) will have.[/quote]

If it comes down to Hilary vs. Rudy, I’m afraid the Constitution will be but a fading memory.

[quote]lixy wrote:

If it comes down to Hilary vs. Rudy, I’m afraid the Constitution will be but a fading memory.[/quote]

Lixy, don’t be “afraid” - you haven’t even the foggiest clue about the American constitution.

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
lixy wrote:

If it comes down to Hilary vs. Rudy, I’m afraid the Constitution will be but a fading memory.

Lixy, don’t be “afraid” - you haven’t even the foggiest clue about the American constitution.[/quote]

You neither, but you know all about how “one” is supposed to see it.

I’m not holding out a lot of hope for Paul, but I’ll be attending a viewing party tomorrow in support. If he came in third or (amazingly!) second, I’d be pretty psyched. Seems pretty unlikely, but I enjoy rooting for underdogs anyway.
Also, I understand a very small percentage of Iowa voters (maybe 5% or less?) even show up for the caucus anyway, so that might actually work in the good doctor’s favor.

McCain/Feingold is definitely a large component of the “bad” in “least bad.”

Here’s an interesting series of posts by libertarian-minded law professors on why they respectively support various candidates:

http://volokh.com/posts/chain_1199296736.shtml

Hmmm - Intrade has Guiliani leading, but Romney and McCain are almost even with him. And Huckabee is well behind - a very good thing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html#market

Follow the link and scroll down a little below the graphs for the Intrade quotes.

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
Mick28 wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:
Here’s hoping:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/cc/?id=110011060

Yes, if Paul just barely gets beaten by someone who has spent no money and time in that particular state…well then he’s a shoe in to be the next President.

I think the vast majority of Paul supporters are well aware he won’t be our next president. But the longer he stays in the race, the more influence his ideas (i.e. the Constitution) will have.[/quote]

Indeed. Interestingly enough, Ron Paul was initially inspired to run for political office due to the Nixon administration’s insistence upon removing the dollar’s tie to gold (although he had strong criticism for the Bretton Woods system).

Originally, Ron Paul only intended to utilize his congressional campaign as a platform for his views on economics and foreign policy, for he did not expect to get elected. His successful campaign and subsequent election to congress however proved that even an individual who did not even expect to get elected could.

Now, of course attempting to become the Republican nominee for president of the United States is a significantly more monumental task, obviously resulting in a significantly smaller change of achieving said goal. The latter is particularly true when one considers the politico-economic and foreign policy positions Paul holds and the subsequent changes to said policies he would attempt to implement.

Should Dr. Paul achieve third place in Iowa it should increase his chances–though certainly no guarantee–of attaining the campaign’s long-term goal of a presidential nomination. Whether to not this becomes a reality however is obviously an open question.

On a more personally level I, for one, would very much desire a third place finish in Iowa for Ron Paul. It would certainly help alleviate a degree of the skepticism I have regarding his chances. Furthermore, it would certainly make the present race more interesting, as opposed to the rather boring choice–in my opinion–of picking from a number of other clones.

At least 3rd. Now I’m holding out hope for a 2nd place finish. Hey, it might happen. After all, Ron Paul voters can be counted on to get out there and vote.

Iowa weather forecast for tonight, Thursday, January 3, 2008:

25 deg F with wind at 20 mi/hr out of the south; wind chill of 9 deg F; humidity 52% with dew-point at 9 deg F; barometer reading 30.33 inches and falling. 9 counties east and north of Des Moines in Iowa are under weather advisory.

This isn’t nearly harsh enough to keep the already politically active at home; still, it won’t keep Paul supporters at home either. How many non-politicos will show up still remains to be seen.

He needs to WIN outright in NH and place third or BETTER in Iowa.

Forget second and third place, this isn’t the Iowa Straw Poll. This is the real deal. By the end of today, we’re going to know, with a fair degree of certainty, who our next president will be.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Iowa weather forecast for tonight, Thursday, January 3, 2008:

25 deg F with wind at 20 mi/hr out of the south; wind chill of 9 deg F; humidity 52% with dew-point at 9 deg F; barometer reading 30.33 inches and falling. 9 counties east and north of Des Moines in Iowa are under weather advisory.

This isn’t nearly harsh enough to keep the already politically active at home; still, it won’t keep Paul supporters at home either. How many non-politicos will show up still remains to be seen.[/quote]

I just read it is the nicest day they have had in the last few and they are expecting record turnout.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the polls started showing movement in McCain’s numbers around a week or two after Huckabee’s surge made national headlines. I think Republicans have been around the block and many have realized that he’s as close as they’re going to get to a candidate who’s both acceptable and electable in the general. He’s less disliked among the religious right than Giuliani, he has greater viability in the middle than a Huckabee, especially as the importance of Iraq fades. The people who dislike him most within the party are those most likely to hold their collective noses and vote for him regardless.

If he doesn’t get the nomination though, he provides the decent complement for several of the candidates in the VP slot. It would probably be more his legendary personal abrasiveness that would hinder his chances at that position than anything else.