T Nation

Romney's Biggest Test?

It’s often been mentioned here about Romney having to navigate the “MSLM”; Dems; liberal’s; the Obama “Assault” etc. in order to Win the election.

While those things certainly have some validity; I think that as a candidate; and the MOST that he has grown over the past 4-8 years is in his ability to navigate the mindfield that is other Conservatives. (Many felt that it was a gutsy move for him to deliver the commencement address at a mostly Evangelical University…and many feel that he did well).

And there is no need to even mention the 2012 Republican Primaries.

So…while he will certainly have to deal with the “MSLM” and an assault from the Dems…I think that his biggest test will be in not making any major gaffs with the Conservative Base.

Thoughts?

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

So…while he will certainly have to deal with the “MSLM” and an assault from the Dems…I think that his biggest test will be in not making any major gaffs with the Conservative Base.[/quote]

I think that is probably right, but even that, I don’t think is a huge obstacle, given that Obama is motivating Romney’s base for him.

Romney could mess that up, but I don’t envision him doing it. Romney is smart and knows he doesn’t have to throw red meat to the base at this point. He gets to spend his efforts talking to independents and disaffected Democrats while Obama conjures up the next “war on women” or “war on Bain” nonsense that will have the base turn out.

Also, Romney is a known commodity among conservatives now - there won’t be any surprises. That’s one benefit to the bruising primary campaign.

Romney’s no cinch to win, but he now has tremendous upside at this point. As good as the Obama campaign was in 2008, they look terrible in 2012 (no doubt in part because of the material they have to work with, but they are even still doing an awful job). Romney looks sensible and focused, Obama wants to talk class warfare and even fellow Democrats are rebuking his efforts to do so. Obama’s signature policies are not popular, his gay marriage flip-flop-flip, most agree, was an act of politics, not conviction.

Obama supporters should be worried.

Agree, TB.

I also don’t think that he has to do much to fire-up the Conservative Base. While many may be “holding their nose” (a Santorum quote) when it comes to Romney…they are already fired up and ready to vote the President out of office.

I also don’t see him making any major gaffs with the base…but he has to be careful.

Mufasa

I think the Supreme Court will have a huge impact on this race.

When and if they strike down the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) that is a HUGE bump for Romney (think of the commercials his Super Pac could run…BILLIONS wasted on an illegal law that Obama championed as his opus.)

When and if they uphold Arizona’s SB1070…more ammo that Obama has engaged and encouraged illegal activity in his administration.

One could argue that a Justice Department has never been so exposed as incompetent in any previous presidency.

The health care ruling is expected in late June and Arizona soon after…two potentially enormous bumps for Romney.

There is zero chance of Romney losing the conservative base. Whomever teh republican nomiee was going to be the conservatives will turn out. As I told you many months ago Mufasa, the there is a deep, deep hatred of Obama from the far right. And it has to do with one thing, his left wing policies. National health care, raising taxes, and threatening to not continue the Bush tax cuts for all Americans.

It there is one thing Romney can be sure of it’s that the conservative base will turn out for him in record numbers. But, as I said in a different thread, Romney still has to play near perferct ball to win the election. And that is because of the MSLM. Any gaffe whatsoever will be lept upon by the liberal media and used to beat him into the ground. Not so much if they thing their man is going to win, but as soon as the polls turn for Romney by 6-8 pts. That’s when the press will panic thinking that they golden child might be sent into retirement - That’s when they’ll be the most dangerous.

One more point, TB mentioned that the Obama people are awful this year compared to 08’, I’m not so sure. Currently they’ve changed the subject from a horrible economy which Obama owns to Bain Capital. Prior to that they were talking about an incident where Romney was allegedly involved in bullying as a teen. To us in the know this looks pathetic. However, it is a very clever way to pull in their base and also not talk about the economy. They seem to go from relatively insignificant topic to topic, and the lap dogs in the media are putting it on the front page.

The Romney people need to swing the conversation back to the economy where he wins big!
If they do this they win, if they are defending Romney’s days at Bain Capital, or his Mormonism after Labor Day, Obama wins.

[quote]ZEB wrote:
There is zero chance of Romney losing the conservative base. Whomever teh republican nomiee was going to be the conservatives will turn out. As I told you many months ago Mufasa, the there is a deep, deep hatred of Obama from the far right. And it has to do with one thing, his left wing policies. National health care, raising taxes, and threatening to not continue the Bush tax cuts for all Americans.

It there is one thing Romney can be sure of it’s that the conservative base will turn out for him in record numbers. But, as I said in a different thread, Romney still has to play near perferct ball to win the election. And that is because of the MSLM. Any gaffe whatsoever will be lept upon by the liberal media and used to beat him into the ground. Not so much if they thing their man is going to win, but as soon as the polls turn for Romney by 6-8 pts. That’s when the press will panic thinking that they golden child might be sent into retirement - That’s when they’ll be the most dangerous.

One more point, TB mentioned that the Obama people are awful this year compared to 08’, I’m not so sure. Currently they’ve changed the subject from a horrible economy which Obama owns to Bain Capital. Prior to that they were talking about an incident where Romney was allegedly involved in bullying as a teen. To us in the know this looks pathetic. However, it is a very clever way to pull in their base and also not talk about the economy. They seem to go from relatively insignificant topic to topic, and the lap dogs in the media are putting it on the front page.

The Romney people need to swing the conversation back to the economy where he wins big!
If they do this they win, if they are defending Romney’s days at Bain Capital, or his Mormonism after Labor Day, Obama wins.[/quote]

The economy is always in the MSLM. Even as the main headline its forgettable since its reported on so much.

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
There is zero chance of Romney losing the conservative base. Whomever teh republican nomiee was going to be the conservatives will turn out. As I told you many months ago Mufasa, the there is a deep, deep hatred of Obama from the far right. And it has to do with one thing, his left wing policies. National health care, raising taxes, and threatening to not continue the Bush tax cuts for all Americans.

It there is one thing Romney can be sure of it’s that the conservative base will turn out for him in record numbers. But, as I said in a different thread, Romney still has to play near perferct ball to win the election. And that is because of the MSLM. Any gaffe whatsoever will be lept upon by the liberal media and used to beat him into the ground. Not so much if they thing their man is going to win, but as soon as the polls turn for Romney by 6-8 pts. That’s when the press will panic thinking that they golden child might be sent into retirement - That’s when they’ll be the most dangerous.

One more point, TB mentioned that the Obama people are awful this year compared to 08’, I’m not so sure. Currently they’ve changed the subject from a horrible economy which Obama owns to Bain Capital. Prior to that they were talking about an incident where Romney was allegedly involved in bullying as a teen. To us in the know this looks pathetic. However, it is a very clever way to pull in their base and also not talk about the economy. They seem to go from relatively insignificant topic to topic, and the lap dogs in the media are putting it on the front page.

The Romney people need to swing the conversation back to the economy where he wins big!
If they do this they win, if they are defending Romney’s days at Bain Capital, or his Mormonism after Labor Day, Obama wins.[/quote]

The economy is always in the MSLM. Even as the main headline its forgettable since its reported on so much.[/quote]

I agree, but Obama is not always blamed for it as he should be. If you notice the MSLM are putting out articles about the nasty old republicans in Congress. Yet, when things went bad when Bush was President it was all his fault you never read a word about Congress.

The pendulum has swung the other way compared to 2008.

In 2008, the anti-Bush sentiment is what got Obama elected, now the same idea might come to help Romney.

This is not so much that the country loves Romney, but the hopey-changey crap won’t turn out for Obama the way it did in 2008.

I won’t say that Romney will win, or that people like him, but keep in mind that combining that Mitty got elected in a highly Democratic state, and that people are not liking Obama so much these days, just might be enough to get him elected.

Staying on Point:

Many of Romney’s advisors (some of whom are his sons) have been VERY aggressive at keeping him on point and steering him away from too many pointed questions. These were lessons mostly learned from the last election.

What tends to trip him up is when he tries to joke; use analogies; and his worst is trying to be a “regular guy” or getting steered toward his Religion.

So far they’ve done a good job; and Romney definitely learned from the last election.

Mufasa

Mitt’s Biggest Test?

I agree with 420 , his biggest test is he

Romney will not be able to avoid stepping on his dick for the next 5 months, his handlers would be advised to put him on the moon and just issue press releases if they want him to have a chance of winning. I believe that Romney truly thinks that when he lies in Michigan nobody in Oregon will hear about it on the interwebz. The Obama haters will vote for him, the mormons will as well, so will the scared white guy bloc but seriously my numbers are higher with women than him and I look like I just set a house on fire. Romney is going to get his 44% Ron Paul or some other 3rd party guy will get 4% and Obama will get the rest.
Romney has spent too much time trying to be “all things to all people”, it will prove to be a bad idea.

[quote]BrianHanson wrote:
Romney will not be able to avoid stepping on his dick for the next 5 months, his handlers would be advised to put him on the moon and just issue press releases if they want him to have a chance of winning. I believe that Romney truly thinks that when he lies in Michigan nobody in Oregon will hear about it on the interwebz. The Obama haters will vote for him, the mormons will as well, so will the scared white guy bloc but seriously my numbers are higher with women than him and I look like I just set a house on fire. Romney is going to get his 44% Ron Paul or some other 3rd party guy will get 4% and Obama will get the rest.
Romney has spent too much time trying to be “all things to all people”, it will prove to be a bad idea.[/quote]

I agree being all to all is bad but Obama does the same thing . The Republicans want you to think he is Liberal but he is more right than Bush and probably more right than an elected Romney

Pittbulll,

Yeah I get a kick out of the “Socialist in Chief” nonsense, outside of Obamacare he has been center-right or beyond throughout his term. Just look at the terrorist body count and you will see what I mean.

[quote]BrianHanson wrote:
Pittbulll,

Yeah I get a kick out of the “Socialist in Chief” nonsense, outside of Obamacare he has been center-right or beyond throughout his term. Just look at the terrorist body count and you will see what I mean.[/quote]

Are you implying that socialists do not kill their enemies? Really Brian I know you’re having a ball jumping from thread to thread and drooling all over the place but it might be time to think BEFORE you post.

ZEB,

SHHHH. People are going to think you like me.

I am implying that people often confuse liberal/socialist/pacifist, Obama has proven so far to be none of those.

[quote]BrianHanson wrote:
ZEB,

SHHHH. People are going to think you like me.

I am implying that people often confuse liberal/socialist/pacifist, Obama has proven so far to be none of those.[/quote]

Yeah, either that or you don’t have the foggiest notion of what socialism is all about.

“Yeah, either that or you don’t have the foggiest notion of what socialism is all about.”

-If you remove the right wing talking points from any conversation about Obama you will see that he is far from a socialist (no matter what they tell you on “them there talk radios”) I was hoping for a much more liberal agenda, one that provided more opportunity for the underclass to move upward, this has not happened, a lack of political will, concern about re-election or possibly I was wrong about the beliefs of the man I voted for. For the record I am retired, last year my wife and I made just under $180k with my pension and her salary, so I do not benefit at all from his policies to help the poor and disenfranchised, but as an American I believe it is the right thing to do…lifting people up rather than holding them down. We obviously disagree. Now I am off to the gym.

[quote]BrianHanson wrote:
I was hoping for a much more liberal agenda, one that provided more opportunity for the underclass to move upward,[/quote]

The only way that government provides opportunity is by getting out of the way. So far all Obama has done has dumped more regulation on small business. And scared the hell out of every small business person by threatening to raise taxes and claiming that we don’t pay enough taxes. And by the way the top 1% pay 37% of all taxes…so in a way he’s right they don’t pay our fair share WE PAY MORE THAN THAT!

You don’t lift people up by handing them something for free, you only enable them by doing this. How much more proof do you need? We have decades of decay since LBJ launched his mindless war on poverty by handing money to people who didn’t earn it and don’t deserve it. You have to understand that one–LIBERAL PROGRAMS DO NOT WORK LONG-TERM!

You lift people up by removing needless regulation and lowering the tax burden. Then they are free to create a living for themselves if they have a mind to.

One more time:

When you take something from someone who earned it and give it to someone who didn’t earn it you neither help the person you took it from or the person that you gave it to.

Meditate on that one a while.

[quote]BrianHanson wrote:

Yeah I get a kick out of the “Socialist in Chief” nonsense, outside of Obamacare he has been center-right or beyond throughout his term. Just look at the terrorist body count and you will see what I mean.[/quote]

Incorrect, no “center right” president would have endorsed Obamacare as drafted, continued deficit spending, refused to engage in entitlement reform, passed Dodd-Frank (which leaves in tact “too big too fail”), pushed for the Fair Pay Act, “evolved” on gay marriage (but more importantly, refused to litigate in defense of DOMA, even before said “evolution”), identified “the rich” as making $250,000 or more for purposes of taxation, stood in the way of Keystone, challenged Arizona’s immigration law on the basis that it did, engaged in ever-expanding regulation as lawmaking, or ignored the War Powers Act for “humanitarian” interventions.

Not center-right. Not in any American universe.

Obama believes that the only thing wrong with our current entitlements is that they are underfunded. Not center-right.

Kudos to Obama for the (somewhat) aggressive war on terrorists, but I suspect this approach is less a function of conviction and more a function of practicality - Obama couldn’t have gone “dove” on these terror protocols, even if he had wanted to.