T Nation

Release 'The Jeb'


#1

It looks like Jeb Bush will officially launch his campaign tomorrow.

With the money behind him, and him placing himself already on the International Stage...I think he will be a formidable foe for Hillary Clinton.

Money aside; I personally like his composure and his more "even-handed" approach to the issues of the day.

But that could be a problem. I'm neither a bleeding-heart Liberal NOR a "real" Conservative...and most likely if people like me like Jeb, he is going to be labeled the dreaded "RHINO".

If he doesn't get the GOP nod...I just don't see anyone else being able to win against the "Clinton Machine".

Let me say this last thing. Clinton's follower's are passionate and are "for" her, not "against" whomever the GOP nominee may be.

Will Jeb (or whomever gains the GOP nomination) followers be as passionate?

Will "hating Clinton" be enough?

Will the GOP play the game of "Anybody BUT Jeb" like they did with the last election?

Questions, questions, questions...

What say Ye, 'ole PWI, about Mr. Bush?

Mufasa


#2

The biggest thing I dislike him is his last name. I don't buy into the whole "if conservativism is properly articulated, it can win the general". No. It needs to be a moderate on social issues. And it needs to be someone who can get more than the male white votes.

I think it needs to be him or Rubio so they can get TX and focus on OH. I'm a realist. I personally like Scott Walker, but I don't think he could win. The right needs to be less stubborn, or just be content on losing elections. Either change with the demographics, or sit on the sidelines and bitch.

I know. It sucks


#3

I like Walker too...but it looks like he announced...then "nothing"...

He simply has not articulated his views. "What he did in Wisconsin" just won't be enough.

I just don't see Rubio getting past the Primaries.

Mufasa


#4

His father was an okay President...but just okay. His brother was not articulate enough to be loved or accepted and he made some poor decisions. I certainly do not want Jeb Bush to be at the top of the ticket. But as VP he could help pull Florida aboard the GOP train. From all accounts he was a very good Governor. And the republicans don't win without Florida and Ohio.

So, Kasich/Bush wins it for the republicans.

Just one scenario where Hillary is defeated there are many others.

One more thing don't underestimate Rubio. He has some serious money behind him and a reasonably good message.


#5

So Sad we would even entertain our choice by those that have the money rather than those that have our ideals . In my opinion if either Clinton or Bush win their party I predict the rise of a 3rd party


#6

I don't think that's a bad prediction. But, if you look at recent history Ross Perot tried a 3rd party play for the White House back in 92'. As a conservative business man he pulled 19% of the vote, mostly they say from Bush Sr. and help elect Bill Clinton. He tried again in 96' while he drew less votes he still pulled enough to reelect Clinton again.

The left wing media never mentions this but Bill Clinton their paragon of liberalism never achieved 50% of the vote while winning two terms in the white house.

As for a 3rd party candidate making a play for 2020, he better have very deep pockets. Perot was a billionaire and he couldn't make it work. Ralph Nader has run as a 3rd party candidate in several Presidential elections so you don't have to have large sums of money to actually run. But, if you want to win that's another matter. It costs mega bucks to start your own party and actually succeed. Keep in mind that every President that has been elected since 1852 has either been a republican or democrat. So talk is cheap but running a 3rd party not so cheap!

As for your original point I think it will come down to how successful the next President actually is. If he or she is another Obama I agree with you, people will be crying out for a 3rd party candidate. But, if the next President can actually succeed while also motivating the electorate then I have no doubt the two party system will continue on unchallenged.


#7

Game over!

Donald Trump has announced that he is officially running for President of the United States!

Bush, Rubio et.al don't stand a chance now!

Mufasa


#8


#9

Jeb's interview with Hannity last night was pretty good.


#10

Agree. One thing I will say about him, he's got that leadership quality. It's night and day when you contrast Governors with congress types. Or even the non-Washington types. He's comfortable leading, and I really hate to use the term, but appears more "presidential" than the others.


#11

One of the reasons (there are several) that I'm not a Jeb Bush fan is because the mainstream liberal media will chew him up and spit him out if he is the nominee. Always keep in mind that the republican nominee whomever he or she might be must not only beat the democratic nominee but also fend off a left wing media that wants badly to put another democrat in the White House. One election cycle I figured that the MSLM is worth about 3pts for the democrat. So, the republican candidate must win by 3.1 to actually achieve a slim victory. Since the rise of Obama the liberal media is not even pretending to be fair any longer.

From shows like SNL right to the mainstream outlets like ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN the New York Times (who already has attacked Marco Rubio because he got 3 speeding tickets over the past 19 years -eye roll-). They are out there and their guns are loaded and will be pointed at the republican nominee.

Jeb Bush represents the biggest target for the Mainstream Liberal media. They will have a field day with the "Bush" name alone. Then comes the ultimate comparison to his brother who they destroyed.

I would much rather go with a smaller target like Rubio, or almost anyone else other than the republican liberal Chris Christie and the oddly out of step Ben Carson.


#12

I thought exactly the same thing, but then, lo and behold, I saw a skit featuring "the Jeb" on Jimmy Fallon last night. It was actually funny, and it seemed he was given the opportunity to appear favorably. I didn't stay awake to watch the actual interview, but I was surprised by the seeming "fairness" of the skit. It was almost reminiscent to Clinton's appearance on Arsenio Hall so many years ago.


#13

Just because you stick your hand in the shark cage and you don't lose it doesn't mean that you can continue to have the same outcome. Should Jeb be the nominee the mainstream liberal media will attack him just like a hungry shark! The not so friendly skits will be numerous and cutting edge mean. The articles in the many left wing magazines and newspapers, the news stories from the many left wing media outlets will all be ruthless.

Fortunately, his opponent will be Hillary Clinton possibly the worst candidate to run for President since Michael Dukakis (92' vs Bush Sr.). So he may win anyway, but not as decisively as any other viable republican not named Bush.


#14

Fallon isn't a partisan douchebag like Letterman was. He rips both sides. Whatever way he leans he's pretty good about making his show about laughs not pushing his personal agenda.

It's a breath of fresh air.


#15

I'm going to out my predictions right now. Sanders is going to beat Hillary in the primary, and he is going to beat Cruz or Rubio in the General.

That's my prediction. We're fucked as a country when it happens, but at least I'll be able to gloat I was right.


#16

I won't say what I said when similar prediction were made about Obama in 08...


#17

lol, what's that?

Here's the thing, Hilary just doesn't have the same perfect storm that Obama had, and she doesnt' have his charisma. I think people are vastly over estimating the enthusiasm levels for her here.

Her issues:
1) She is stale as fuck. People have crowned her Queen since December 2012. The younger generations get board of shit real fast. Her turnout won't match Obama's when it comes to getting the youth and "typically don't vote" people to the polls.

2) Her biggest assets are the sexist's that will vote for her because "it's time for a woman POTUS". And those people aren't regular voters.

3) She is dry and boring as hell to listen to. At least Bam has passion, misguided commie passion, but passion none the less. She sounds like a circus elephant ready to be put down on stage. Slow, old, sloppy and boring as hell.

4) Sanders is like Liz Warren male. He says all the "millionaires and billionaires" plays the pathetic class warfare card that morons eat up like candy and pretends he is "independent".

If anyone is catching lightening in a bottle from the D ticket it is Sanders. If the establishment picks Hilary, any single one of the current crop of Republican possibilities can beat her as long as they dont' talk about fucking rape or homosexuality.


#18

That said, I'd prefer Hilary to Sanders, Warrren and Obama.


#19

X2

I could get past Jeb having Bush as a last name, but i highly doubt the average uninformed voter would be able to see past the media shit storm he would have to endure.

I would love for a 3rd party to work out, but no way in hell is the political establishment going to go away quietly, there would be some serious shit before this ever happen. (serious shit = massive upheaval, probably violent)


#20

That there was no way he'd win...