I’m with Hedo on this one.
When everyone is ready to panic and call it the end of the world… you are probably near the bottom.
[quote]hedo wrote:
Actually the link was about how people have grown fat on how easy things are and lost perspective on how things work. Perhaps you should bother yourself…maybe it will expand your perspective.
Understanding oposing viewpoints isn’t the worst thing in the world. I think the economy will pull out of the doldrums before most do.
[/quote]
Yeah noticed after I finished my post that the article didn’t follow your 2009 prediction.
Opposing viewpoints are ok you didn’t present any in your initial post though so you didn’t give me much to think on.
[quote]hedo wrote:
Positive points to consider:
- Obama tax plans will be delayed.
- Increased government spending on infastructure.
- Capital availability and liquidity will increase. They
upside down now. This will right itself. - Capital goods manufacturers forced to become more
competitive. - Silly Global Warming policies will be delayed.
- Lower cost of oil will have a ripple effect.
- The cycle will correct itself if history is any
guide the expansion will be enormous following a
deep correction.
[/quote]
1 & 2.
I didn’t get into the politics at all and it can really be argued a bunch of different ways. I’ll just summarize my view as I think Obama will not help at best and be disastrous at worst. So probably somewhere in between.
The money has to come from somewhere so if it isn’t coming from increased printing that means the few of us that aren’t deadbeats have to pay more.
Doubt it. Sounds like you probably know my reasons why so I won’t list them but if you want I can elaborate. Key points being our shit for money, banks, housing.
Won’t see the benefits of this for quite some time. Instead of trimming some fat we’re killing a bunch of hogs. Those that survive will be stronger but who knows how many that will be?
I’m not sure which policies you’re referring to. I don’t see this being a huge factor since the cost of labor in the US is higher than 3rd world countries. If you have some particular insight please share it.
I wish. Don’t know about your part of the world but here in the middle of the country our prices, espeically food, have increased or stayed the same and gas has dropped from almost $3 down to $1.35 a gallon.
Personally I think it was mainly a bullshit excuse for non-oil companies to gouge us without looking bad. Should it be cheaper for them to manufacture and ship goods? Of course but that doesn’t mean they’ll pass along the savings to the consumer especially during this economic climate. They’d rather eliminate some of their debt or keep it for payroll.
The correction we need is huge!!! I don’t disagree that after the recession/depression the upswing could be huge but I think it is further off in the distance than you think. Either way make sure to load up on those value stocks fo sho.
[quote]hedo wrote:
Your entitled to your opinion. Be happy to take the Grow! I use the low carb stuff by the way.
[/quote]
Of course low carb wouldn’t want you to catch teh fatness =p I’m fairly confident I won’t have to pay it. If I do oh no big deal the economy is better and I’ll have $ in my pocket.
[quote]hedo wrote:
It’s a prediction. Keep in mind all predictions are usually wrong to some degree. The recession beagan in late 2007. They typically run 12-18 months. I see this one ending in 2009. If you think this is the mother of all recessions it may run a bit longer…but I doubt it. Anecdotal evidence is not the best indicator of economic health.
On these very pages it has been forecast that oil would hit $250/bbl + by year end. This recession was also forecast by the esteemed band of T-Nation economists to start every month for the past two years and that returning to the gold standard or buying silver was our only hope of economic survival.
I’ve been thru a lot of business cycles. This one is bad. Not as bad as the late Carter years but still a nasty one.
It will end. It will not last for ever and it’s never as bad as people think it is. Could I be wrong…sure. I’m not usally wrong by that much however.
[/quote]
One thing that catches my eye is the 12-18 months recession cycle. Your suggesting that I used anecdotal evidence then suggest this? In a normal recession that could be true but this one isn’t normal you’d need to look at some irregular/outlier data to find a model that fits this economic climate a wee bit better.
I try to draw my conclusions from the environment around me not just history. I guess it’s the whole “if you don’t learn from the past your doomed to repeat it” mentality vs. “if you always look backwards how can you see what is coming”.
Our economy has been WAY OVER VALUED for most of my life (mid 20’s). We have a big correction coming and we are just starting to see the change. FFS a few months ago people were just starting to officially recognize that we entered a recession in 2007.
I still think that we are just starting to feel the squeeze and it’s going to get worse before it levels off and starts to get better and I just don’t see all that happening in the next year. EVERYONE GO BUILD BOMB SHELTERS AND PLAY FALLOUT 3 FOR PRACTICE CAUSE IT IS COMING AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Seriously just make sure to save all the money you can and be an indispensable asset for your employer. It’d also be a good time to upgrade your home (if you want to) assuming you have the money. Steal it right off those dumb asses that paid too much for it and used interest only payments.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
Fractional reserve banking is not as much a cause of this collapse as is mark-to-market accounting.
And the SEC is opposed to even so much as a suspension of that bullshit.
If it weren’t for mark-to-market, we would not have had the meltdown.
[/quote]
Exactly.
One side of the government is saying loan people money while the other (FDIC) is having bank examiners make banks do the complete opposite.
[quote]vroom wrote:
I’m with Hedo on this one.
When everyone is ready to panic and call it the end of the world… you are probably near the bottom.[/quote]
Vroom and I rarely agree on anything…the bottom has to be near!
This downturn has a lot of hype in it. Any negative news is news is promoted with the sky is falling comments. Good news is presented as if it doesn’t even matter.
Even if unemployment hits 8 or 8.5% it’s no where near depression levels and not even up to the levels seen in the late 70’s early 80’s. The economy is also far more productive now then it was then.
I view this as a recession. Not a deep and protacted recession, merely a recession. They are always caused by an event of some sort. This one is similar.
We are not near the bottom, there are still a landslide of loans that will default. And thats alomost impossible to predict because of the 3-5-7 year ARM loans. We also dont know when those loans were written.
The Fed is also going to print almost $8 Trillion!!! Along with many central banks around the world printing out billions in their paper currency.
Major inflation is on the way in the next couple of years. Can you say $10.00 per gallon???
Numbers dont lie… see below
[quote]fearlesswarrior wrote:
We are not near the bottom, there are still a landslide of loans that will default. And thats alomost impossible to predict because of the 3-5-7 year ARM loans. We also dont know when those loans were written.
The Fed is also going to print almost $8 Trillion!!! Along with many central banks around the world printing out billions in their paper currency.
Major inflation is on the way in the next couple of years. Can you say $10.00 per gallon???
Numbers dont lie… see below
[/quote]
Sounds like a bunch of bullshit to me. There is only one more round of loans set to default, and why the hell would the fed print that much money!? Also, I would have to be braindead to click even one of your five links with “gold” in the title. There will be another Breton Woods with China and everything will be fine.
beebuddy wrote:
Sounds like a bunch of bullshit to me. There is only one more round of loans set to default, and why the hell would the fed print that much money!? Also, I would have to be braindead to click even one of your five links with “gold” in the title. There will be another Breton Woods with China and everything will be fine.
fearlesswarrior wrote:
Whatever you say dude…24hgold is just a website that is a HUGE information hub that links you to dozens of differnt articles from all over the internet. Like Bloomberg, Wallstreet Journal, Asia Times, MSNBC, Chicago Tribune, NY Fed, China Daily, Euro Pacific Capital, Casey Research, Hussman funds, NY Fed, New Zealand Herald, Times of India, CB of Russia and so much more. And guess what Mr. Smartipants!?!..its all FREE international news covering, hold on for this Professor beebuddy…
(IDEAS, ANALYSIS AND NEWS)
Worldwide Live Press Reviews
Commentaries
Latest News
Monetary Commentaries
Gold and Silver Commentaries
Gold market news and Technical analysis
(INVESTING)
(FUNDAMENTALS)
Numbers, Stats and Data,
Coins, history and treasures,
(NATURAL RESOURCES)
Institutional Reports
Precious metals, Energy And Commodities Precious Metals News
Energy News
(NATURAL RESOURCES STOCKS)
Resource Companies in the news and media Discoveries and drilling results
Press Releases
The site I pasted the links from is alot like what we have here at T-Nation, a huge ass website with shitloads of FREE info from internationlly respected sources in every field. The only difference is that the topics are macro economics, PM’s, oil, stocks, bonds, etc
So since you obviously know everything dont bother reading one the biggest, most objective FREE websites ive been able to find.
Oh, one more thing,do you even know what Bretton Woods was? Bretton Woods made “gold” the core foundation of the whole fucking system. With out gold BW wouldnt even have exised or work, hence the global meltdown we are curently experiencing.
Let me educate you…because based on you comment,
“There will be another Breton Woods with China and everything will be fine.”
I really think you need it…
Bretton Woods failed in 1971-73 because the the US didnt have enough gold to back the dollar. Since the US$ was the world currency and Bretton Woods is “pegged” to gold, other countries could swap dollars for gold becasue we pushed so much gold backed paper on them. once they realized that they cold take delivery this depleted our reserves so badly that Nixon shut the gold door between the link to US $. US$ still remained the world reserve currency even after BW fail, which is when the world started to slowly develope financial cancer that is now ready to kill us.
Now we have Bretton Woods II which is based on fiat US$ as the world reserve currency NOT backed by gold. Since its not backed by gold the fed can print as much as they want, in turn fucking over the whole world once the dollar goes in the shit tubes and in case you havent heard…IT IS!!!
And to think that going back to a Bretton WoodsIII backed by gold is even possible in 5 years is flat out crazy. I dont care how much gold china has, I dont think it will be enough to match all the paper floating around the world, US$ and others. And even if it did, we have so many smart hedge fund managers the KNOW the weakness in the BW system that they would slowly take thier gold until they were forced to shut the door and rely solely on fiat, casuing gold values to soar. history repeats itself my friend.
If you would visit my brain dead gold website you would realize that most European and Asian countries are printing up billions of their own currency, never mind the trillions Shmobama is cooking up. But, since your so smart and know everything…dont bother and keep think Bretton Woods is plausable.
Best of luck to you in the future,
Fearless
There is a reason that your ideas are “fringe.”
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII
[quote]fearlesswarrior wrote:
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII[/quote]
Yes, and good luck to you fighting zombies during the apocalypse.
[quote]beebuddy wrote:
fearlesswarrior wrote:
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII
Yes, and good luck to you fighting zombies during the apocalypse. [/quote]
He provided info and links, and all you did was whine like a pussified metro. “Yeah, Obama will save us!” Jesus H. Christ, we’re facing the shitstorm of the century and worst since the 1930’s of the last century…and we’ve got a ‘community organizer’ in charge.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
beebuddy wrote:
fearlesswarrior wrote:
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII
Yes, and good luck to you fighting zombies during the apocalypse.
He provided info and links, and all you did was whine like a pussified metro. “Yeah, Obama will save us!” Jesus H. Christ, we’re facing the shitstorm of the century and worst since the 1930’s of the last century…and we’ve got a ‘community organizer’ in charge.
[/quote]
You are the most talented troll ever.
Now your just being a dick…
I dont think there will be an apocalypse. When did I ever imply that? I just think 2014 is a realistic number and Bretton Woods isnt the answer.
Also, since your so smart please explaine how a Bretton Woods III will get us out of this mess? It failed twice already, and please dont come back with some smart ass comment and back up what you say. How the hell is a BW III going to work and not fail again in 30-50 years?
On another note…
Headhunter has almost 4x the amount of posts you do. Has been here for about 3 years longer and is at a level 4. Why would a troll have those figures in all 3 categories?If anyone is a troll its you, your zombie and troll comment just make you look like a dumb ass.
Just the fact that you blindly mention Breton Woods right after shtting on the fact that “gold” was in the link makes you look like an even bigger dumbass since BW was based around the dollar pegged to gold at $35 per/oz.
You are a troll, shut the hell up until you can back up your comments with some intelligence. go to the “get a life forum” and post your useless fluff bullshit there cause you are a waste of time.
the only respone i want to hear from your dumb ass is how BWIII is going to work. If we get any other lame insulting response then we can all verify that YOU are in fact a big dumb troll that cant back up what he says.
thank you
Fearless
This degenerated quickly. I was hoping to see some more views with some logic, personal experiences, and/or sources of facts to go along with predictions. Alas, just like with anything important people quickly fall back to name calling when they start losing a debate or have no substance for their opinion to stand on. Kind of funny since a wide range of views could be presented here with intelligent arguments for all sides.
The more I read about Obama the more I fear I’m going to be right…at least I won’t be buying Hedo a tub of Grow! but I’d rather lose this little wager.
Another factor would be that it seems layoffs are just starting to ramp up. I’m predicting there is going to be a lot of competition due to the influx of jobless experienced workers and fresh graduates. Probably just another bidding war to see who will work for the least amount.
Good News!!! GE went down a little bit today and Ford is still extremely affordable. Hopefully, they’ll both drop some more so after I finish depositing my B-day/Christmas money I can load up on them.
[quote]beebuddy wrote:
There is a reason that your ideas are “fringe.”[/quote]
Most academics are bought and paid for by the government?
[quote]beebuddy wrote:
fearlesswarrior wrote:
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII
Yes, and good luck to you fighting zombies during the apocalypse. [/quote]
Gosh, you don´t even know that that would be a zombiecalypse…
Did the Fed play its last Ace, by dropping its lending rate to .25%? I think so. No one is buying anything. The ports are clogged with unsold goods. OPEC cut production by 2.2 millions barrels/day, and the price fell almost 10%.
If you read the link, we’ll have two years of mucking about, until everyone realizes that all the stimulus is worthless if the subject is a corpse. Then the REAL show begins. Obama’s ratings may fall lower than GWB.
I think the US gov’t is going to have to go through its own Chapter 11.
[quote]orion wrote:
beebuddy wrote:
There is a reason that your ideas are “fringe.”
Most academics are bought and paid for by the government?
[/quote]
That’s absolute nonsense! All Austrian economists don’t understand neo-classical economics though.
[quote]fearlesswarrior wrote:
Now your just being a dick…
I dont think there will be an apocalypse. When did I ever imply that? I just think 2014 is a realistic number and Bretton Woods isnt the answer.
Also, since your so smart please explaine how a Bretton Woods III will get us out of this mess? It failed twice already, and please dont come back with some smart ass comment and back up what you say. How the hell is a BW III going to work and not fail again in 30-50 years?
On another note…
Headhunter has almost 4x the amount of posts you do. Has been here for about 3 years longer and is at a level 4. Why would a troll have those figures in all 3 categories?If anyone is a troll its you, your zombie and troll comment just make you look like a dumb ass.
Just the fact that you blindly mention Breton Woods right after shtting on the fact that “gold” was in the link makes you look like an even bigger dumbass since BW was based around the dollar pegged to gold at $35 per/oz.
You are a troll, shut the hell up until you can back up your comments with some intelligence. go to the “get a life forum” and post your useless fluff bullshit there cause you are a waste of time.
the only respone i want to hear from your dumb ass is how BWIII is going to work. If we get any other lame insulting response then we can all verify that YOU are in fact a big dumb troll that cant back up what he says.
thank you
Fearless[/quote]
Yes, I was being a dick in response to your sarcasm. I said what I thought as straightforwardly as possible and you got emotional. As for headhunter, he is famous here for his ridiculously inane posts.
As for the coming zombiepocalypse, what else could be the result of the sky that you seem to think is falling? Shit happens. Our money is all funny, and all based on trade and power. When it fails it will be reset.
[quote]orion wrote:
beebuddy wrote:
fearlesswarrior wrote:
Good luck with your Bretton WoodsIII
Yes, and good luck to you fighting zombies during the apocalypse.
Gosh, you don´t even know that that would be a zombiecalypse…
[/quote]
There will be. It will come as a result of the falling dollar when Wall Street execs start losing their minds and become the walking dead. Man, if you Austrian econ guys had your heads on straight we could be pals. It seems like just about everything you & lifticus say I can agree with until you start babbling about gold and conspiracies. 