My own two cents is that this market has bottomed and we will see an uptick in mid to late 2009.
Huh? Are you joking? People are just are just now starting to lose their jobs at a decent rate and you think we’re at the bottom and we’ll recover in late 2009? I’m not trying to be mean or argumentative but my reaction on the fly was “WTF is this guy retarded?”.
Winter is approaching or here for the US and with high prices for food and utilities coupled with decrease in wages and jobs you think we’ve bottomed? A lot of people will be struggling to just put food on the table let alone pay their gas bill and rent/mortgage. Since so many people have lost their homes the demand for rentals has increased meaning the price has gone up or at the very least stayed the same.
Several states (Great Lakes area) have already made it illegal for your gas to be turned off during the winter due to non-payment. Some states (Ohio for sure) are discussing a postponement of evictions during the winter months unless the evictee can prove they have a shelter or other place to live. So we have people trying to make a living (landlords, utility employees) that aren’t receiving the income they’re supposed to. So those of us that have jobs or aren’t deadbeats get to look forward to even higher gas prices and landlords being foreclosed on. Oh and we get more of those lovable, huggable welfare babies mmmmmmm mmmmmm tasty.
I’m not really even going to touch on the Fed Gov and Obama. My main belief is they’ll follow the track record which has been very unsatisfactory at best. On top of that even if their plans work, the first 2 years of a presidency are spent dealing with previous admin bullshit and the current admins influence isn’t usually felt until about the 1/2 way mark. This could be shorter since it’ll be a one party majority but I won’t hold my breath.
I’m not a super doom and gloom we are going back to the stone ages type of guy. I’m fairly middle of the road and don’t think it’ll be worse than the Great Depression. However, I do recognize that it could potentially be much worse and that people are just now starting to feel the pinch. Prediction: at the tip of the spear and I’m guessing it’s a Boar Spear at best and a Ballista at worst.
Note: Didn’t even read your link because if it supports your viewpoints I know it has to be a waste of time. If in late 2009 it has truly improved I’ll buy you a tub of Grow or video tape myself eating this post after I print it off…your choice.
Actually the link was about how people have grown fat on how easy things are and lost perspective on how things work. Perhaps you should bother yourself…maybe it will expand your perspective. Understanding oposing viewpoints isn’t the worst thing in the world. I think the economy will pull out of the doldrums before most do.
Positive points to consider:
- Obama tax plans will be delayed.
- Increased government spending on infastructure.
- Capital availability and liquidity will increase. They
upside down now. This will right itself.
- Capital goods manufacturers forced to become more
- Silly Global Warming policies will be delayed.
- Lower cost of oil will have a ripple effect.
- The cycle will correct itself if history is any
guide the expansion will be enormous following a
Your entitled to your opinion. Be happy to take the Grow! I use the low carb stuff by the way.
It’s a prediction. Keep in mind all predictions are usually wrong to some degree. The recession beagan in late 2007. They typically run 12-18 months. I see this one ending in 2009. If you think this is the mother of all recessions it may run a bit longer…but I doubt it. Anecdotal evidence is not the best indicator of economic health.
On these very pages it has been forecast that oil would hit $250/bbl + by year end. This recession was also forecast by the esteemed band of T-Nation economists to start every month for the past two years and that returning to the gold standard or buying silver was our only hope of economic survival.
I’ve been thru a lot of business cycles. This one is bad. Not as bad as the late Carter years but still a nasty one.
It will end. It will not last for ever and it’s never as bad as people think it is. Could I be wrong…sure. I’m not usally wrong by that much however.