'Recession' is Over!

[quote]hedo wrote:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpr.htm

I sure hope she doesn’t have to postpone her taxpayer funded trip on the military airplane she has claimed as her own for the trip.

That would be a tragedy wouldn’t it?[/quote]

Oddly left out of the “report” is that she’s leaving with a congressional delegation to visit the Pope in Rome, and deal with some NATO issues on said military plane. I wonder why Drudge and Rep. Culberson would leave that relevant info out? Also LOVING your information sources.

[quote]JD430 wrote:
hedo wrote:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpr.htm

I sure hope she doesn’t have to postpone her taxpayer funded trip on the military airplane she has claimed as her own for the trip.

That would be a tragedy wouldn’t it?

My God.

This really is becoming the Former Soviet Union.[/quote]

My God! Congressional delegations! Traveling! On military planes! Why lord why!!!

[quote]100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpr.htm

I sure hope she doesn’t have to postpone her taxpayer funded trip on the military airplane she has claimed as her own for the trip.

That would be a tragedy wouldn’t it?

Oddly left out of the “report” is that she’s leaving with a congressional delegation to visit the Pope in Rome, and deal with some NATO issues on said military plane. I wonder why Drudge and Rep. Culberson would leave that relevant info out? Also LOVING your information sources.[/quote]

no need for context when its more fun to over react!

OMG SOVIET UNION, OMG ON DRUDGE REPORT IS SAYS IN THE STIMULUS BILL THERES A SECRET PROVISION REQUIRING ALL CITIZENS TO WEAR RED!!!

[quote]PB-Crawl wrote:
100meters wrote:
hedo wrote:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpr.htm

I sure hope she doesn’t have to postpone her taxpayer funded trip on the military airplane she has claimed as her own for the trip.

That would be a tragedy wouldn’t it?

Oddly left out of the “report” is that she’s leaving with a congressional delegation to visit the Pope in Rome, and deal with some NATO issues on said military plane. I wonder why Drudge and Rep. Culberson would leave that relevant info out? Also LOVING your information sources.

no need for context when its more fun to over react!

OMG SOVIET UNION, OMG ON DRUDGE REPORT IS SAYS IN THE STIMULUS BILL THERES A SECRET PROVISION REQUIRING ALL CITIZENS TO WEAR RED!!![/quote]

But, they don’t seem to be having fun? To me it’s funny to hear, like watching the Colbert Report, but I’ll confess I don’t get the neanderthal mindset.

[quote]tedro wrote:

How exactly do you have positive growth in a RECESSION?[/quote]

You don’t.

With the (expected) drop in real estate prices (buy that house now,) and the ignorance that caused it:

Joe Blow: “I make $500 a month, and want a $2,000 a month mortgage.”

Banker: “No Problem.”

Of course some banks are going to have a problem.

Anyone who spent the past 8 years calling Bush an idiot were proven right in the past year. But how this whole thing was manipulated by the media was terrible.

The economy was not going to collapse, but telling everyone that it was caused a panic, and the market to crash. All the lemmings got out, and Buffet started buying like he does every time the idiots forget the oldest adage in investing. Buy low, sell high. (It’s low people, what the fuck are you selling for?)

Now we are in the terrible situation of having unemployment as bad as it was in the early 90’s. Interestingly we got out of that without a couple of $700 billion spending bills.

The reasons for all this are simple. Take a financial problem, blow it up into a giant crisis through total bullshit, and scare everyone, and guess what? They got their candidate in. And Bush, who is no friend of McCain, didn’t care if any of this hurt him.

Now all that needs to happen is that a depression does not occur, and the media will be calling Obama an economic genius.

Now, with my crystal ball, I will tell you what is going to happen. The economy is not going to tank much further. Companies have cut as far as they are able to. The media fucked up, went overboard scaring everyone about the economy, so this year will be fairly flat.

Some people are going to delay their retirements, but large numbers of people are retiring over the next few years, regardless. That means there will not be the 25% unemployment everyone has been scared of. (Especially with the massive hiring of temps for the census.)

I say it is a toss up over whether or not Obama is in good standing by the end of this year. But next year the Bush tax cuts expire, and taxes are going to go up, but this won’t be called a tax increase. (That fun political double speak where budget cuts are actually reductions in increases.)

That will give the economy a kick in the ass, dropping Obama’s approval rating by the end of 2010, or early 2011. (May not be in time to change congress though.)

By 2011 the inflation, caused by these massive bills and the ones to come, will really start to kick in, and interest rates will climb. (Stay out of most debt, and buy bonds once they hit double digits. Although leveraged real estate may be a good investment if the mortgages are in place before the interest rates climb.)

As interest rates climb, you will see the next wave of foreclosures as people discover why an adjustable rate mortgage is called an ARM, (and a LEG.)

Lets realize that Washington is not going to save us. And as long as we sit around waiting for somebody else to solve our problems, those problems will never be solved.

My personal economy is actually doing pretty good, comparatively speaking. After getting tons of medical bills paid off, and eliminating a lot of stupid debt, I have more money left over at the end of the month then ever before.

And that exact same formula will work for the government.

[quote]The Mage wrote:

Anyone who spent the past 8 years calling Bush an idiot were proven right in the past year. But how this whole thing was manipulated by the media was terrible.

The economy was not going to collapse, but telling everyone that it was caused a panic, and the market to crash. All the lemmings got out, and Buffet started buying like he does every time the idiots forget the oldest adage in investing. Buy low, sell high. (It’s low people, what the fuck are you selling for?)

[/quote]

Wow. Stunningly wrong assessment. The actual reality is we were closer to absolute collapse than has been discussed, hence the frantic pace to stop the bleeding, (we’re still trying)
Here’s Congressman Kanjorski discussing the events of Sept. 18:

I was there when the secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve came those days and talked to members of Congress about what was going on? Here?s the facts. We don?t even talk about these things.

On Thursday, at about 11 o?clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw down of money market accounts in the United States to a tune of $550 billion being drawn out in a matter of an hour or two.

The Treasury opened up its window to help. They pumped $105 billion into the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks.

They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts, and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn?t be further panic out there. And that?s what actually happened.

If they had not done that their estimation was that by two o?clock that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the United States. [It] would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States, and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed.

Now we talked at that time about what would have happened if that happened. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.

[quote]100meters wrote:
The Mage wrote:

Wow. Stunningly wrong assessment. The actual reality is we were closer to absolute collapse than has been discussed, hence the frantic pace to stop the bleeding, (we’re still trying)
Here’s Congressman Kanjorski discussing the events of Sept. 18:
[/quote]

So your defending Bush? Did not expect that.

Don’t get blinded by the politics. What was said was that half a trillion was drawn out in a couple of hours. Now under what circumstances? Who drew it out and why? Nowhere are we given the context, and that context is very important.

Next it was extrapolated as to what would have happened if they didn’t act, making a complete guess as to what would have happened, whereas the opposite could have resulted. (Just like when the stock market tanked by 500 points in less then a day and still ended up that same day.) But they did act, as they were supposed to.

Interestingly enough, Money.CNN.Com says that the money markets had a draw down of $247 billion over 10 days. (September 9 - 19) Not half a trillion over 2 hours.

[i]The rapid exodus from money funds began after The Reserve Fund announced on Sept. 16 that shares in its primary fund fell to 97 cents due to losses incurred when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy.

The total held in money funds, which had hit a record high of $3.535 trillion on Sept. 9, plummeted to $3.288 trillion 10 days later, when the government plan was unveiled.[/i]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/money_market/index.htm

But this leaves me confused. How can there have been a potential of $5.5 trillion taken out when there was only $3.535 trillion there? Where was that extra $2 trillion going to come from?

Anyway, this was a result of the fund dropping below a buck, which has happened before, in 1994.

Again what I am seeing is more fear mongering. (Wait, I thought we were supposed to be focused on hope and change.)

Still this all stems from the secondary mortgage markets having trouble, and the $40 billion dollar plan that was discussed here would have solved the entire situation, exactly like backing these fund markets did.

We need to separate the facts and reality from the politics. Unfortunately that is hard to do.

This was from Monday:

The Commerce Department report showed spending by individuals rose 0.6% last month, after dropping 1% in December. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast an increase of 0.4%

Kind of interesting that spending is rising during a recession, isn’t it?

My favorite part is this:

Personal savings rose $128.7 billion in January to $545.5 billion. The personal savings rate, expressed as a percentage of disposable personal income, jumped to 5% from 3.9% in December. At 5%, the savings rate is at a 14-year high.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/02/news/economy/personal_spending_income/index.htm

In other words, despite the so-called recession, people still have money, as shown by both an increase in spending and saving. Unfortunately, due to the ever-increasing uncertainty caused by the Obama administration and the MSM, people are afraid to spend too much of it. Instead, they are putting it in economy-killing savings accounts and piggy banks.

Now today we have this:

[i]NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) – The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week, edging off recent highs, according to a government report released Thursday.

For the week ended Feb. 28, 639,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims, down 31,000 from the 670,000 claims reported the previous week.

Economists polled by Briefing.com expected 650,000 claims.

The number of Americans continuing on unemployment insurance dropped by 14,000 to 5,106,000, edging off the record high set the prior week.

The data is from the week ended Feb. 21, the most recent data available.
[/i]

To recap: People are spending more money, people have so much extra expendable money that they are putting it in savings accounts, and unemployment increases are already slowing down. Does anybody really think this economy is in the shambles that we are being led to believe?

“The fundamentals of the economy are strong.” - John McCain

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-32-is-available!-4th-quarter-2009-Beginning-of-Phase-5-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-phase-of-global-geopolitical_a2805.html

The recession will be ending soon…Followed by a depression.

my estimate as well. there has to be a point where we :

A) are not able to borrow anymore more money to provide artificial stimulous. At least not at sane interest rates or without HUGE political favor.

B) Have to think about paying the money back by extreme taxation or inflation. Quite frankly, I think printing money will be the only viable approach, given zero chance of cutting spending.

None of this looks good in the long term. We should all be hoping against all hope that we don’t get in another costly military boondoggle.

Now would be a perfect time to test the US. Good thing for us, most that would test us are dependant on the price of oil going back up.

I won’t refute that a depression in the near future is possible. The biggest point I want to make in this thread is that the entire thing has been created by media and government. Any worsening of the current situation is a direct result of poor economic policy, and not that of business in this country.

[quote]tedro wrote:
I won’t refute that a depression in the near future is possible. The biggest point I want to make in this thread is that the entire thing has been created by media and government. Any worsening of the current situation is a direct result of poor economic policy, and not that of business in this country.[/quote]

Hell yeah! The government and MSM are CREATING this damn thing. Making it up! No basis in reality! The worst part is, just about EVERY government is making it up around the whole world! The IMF too! It’s one HUGE conspiracy!

Look at this shit, obviously government just makin’ shit up:

[i]
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unem-
ployment rate rose from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined
by 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007; about one-
half of this decline occurred in the past 3 months. In January, job losses
were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (11.6 million) and the unemployment
rate (7.6 percent) rose in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of un-
employed persons has increased by 4.1 million and the unemployment rate has
risen by 2.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
[/i]

[quote]tedro wrote:
I won’t refute that a depression in the near future is possible. The biggest point I want to make in this thread is that the entire thing has been created by media and government. Any worsening of the current situation is a direct result of poor economic policy, and not that of business in this country.[/quote]

Correct. Problem is some can only see a few months into the past and can only evaluation the details that float to the top via columnists and sound bites.

I can’t believe this dumb bastards just makin’ shit up! Look at the top article on IMF.org today, what a crock

[i]
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS
Economic Crisis Starts to Hit World’s Poorest Countries

IMF Survey online

March 3, 2009

* Outlook for world's low-income countries deteriorates
* IMF?s Strauss-Kahn worries about humanitarian effects of crisis
* 22 worst-off countries need minimum $25 billion more in concessional loans

After first striking the advanced economies and then emerging markets, a third wave of the global financial crisis has begun to hit the world?s poorest and most vulnerable countries, threatening to undermine recent economic gains and to create a humanitarian crisis, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in Washington.[/i]

[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
tedro wrote:
I won’t refute that a depression in the near future is possible. The biggest point I want to make in this thread is that the entire thing has been created by media and government. Any worsening of the current situation is a direct result of poor economic policy, and not that of business in this country.

Hell yeah! The government and MSM are CREATING this damn thing. Making it up! No basis in reality! The worst part is, just about EVERY government is making it up around the whole world! The IMF too! It’s one HUGE conspiracy!

Look at this shit, obviously government just makin’ shit up:

[i]
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unem-
ployment rate rose from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined
by 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007; about one-
half of this decline occurred in the past 3 months. In January, job losses
were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (11.6 million) and the unemployment
rate (7.6 percent) rose in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of un-
employed persons has increased by 4.1 million and the unemployment rate has
risen by 2.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
[/i]

[/quote]

What does this have to do with claims of catastrophy and destruction to drum support for policies that will encourage exactly what they are warning us of?

Also, is there some magical, natural unemployment rate that we should be aiming for? And how far below this magical rate can we dip before a complete economic meltdown, requiring the spending of money we don’t have by the all knowing, infalable federal gov’t?

Typical irrational bullshit. You should really try a bit harder.

[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
I can’t believe this dumb bastards just makin’ shit up! Look at the top article on IMF.org today, what a crock

[i]
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS
Economic Crisis Starts to Hit World’s Poorest Countries

IMF Survey online

March 3, 2009

* Outlook for world's low-income countries deteriorates
* IMF?s Strauss-Kahn worries about humanitarian effects of crisis
* 22 worst-off countries need minimum $25 billion more in concessional loans

After first striking the advanced economies and then emerging markets, a third wave of the global financial crisis has begun to hit the world?s poorest and most vulnerable countries, threatening to undermine recent economic gains and to create a humanitarian crisis, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in Washington.[/i]

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW030309A.htm [/quote]

The IMF? Please.

Dhickey, we agree 1000000%. The IMF? Please, those bastards wouldn’t know a supply from a demand curve. Did you know the IMF is ACTUALLY PART OF THE UN!!!11!! Obviously they don’t know a damn thing.

All this economic “recession” stuff is BS. And obviously the government and media have made it all up!

The reason that unemployment is up is that companies are using all the doom and gloom reporting as an excuse to go on huge cost cutting excercises stripping out support areas and management structures.

In 6 months to a year those same companies will be hiring people back to similar (or ideally lower paid) roles as they start to see the impact of not having enough staff in these areas.

For the most part they are doing this to stabilise their share prices by giving good news about their financial prudence to their shareholders. This means that they can still get their bonuses.

Not a bad thought ted but it won’t be the stimulus that helps the market turn around it will be the assumption by enough people that the Obama administration can’t get the leftist agenda done.

He will either give up his socialist beleifs to govern from the center to preserve his legacy or he will go down (politically) as a one term failure like Jimmy “Malaise” Carter. Either way let’s try not to let these fucking liberals talk conservative just to get elected.