T Nation

Qaddaffi Bet: Fight or Fly?


I'm putting $5 figurative bux down that Qaddaffi takes it to the grave - dies in a hail of bullet fire. The other option is that he surrenders or flees, any takers? I'd respect the guy if he took his conviction to the end. Right, wrong or indifferent - you have to respect a RESOLUTE man. History will spit on your name if your last Kingly residence is the hole they find you hiding in. Once you become Emperor, you will be that or be dead; your fate is sealed, there is no escape.

I see something in Qaddaffi's eyes that he has the heart of a revolutionary and a warrior within him. Regardless of his policies, I think they are going to have to put a bullet in his head, because he is going out Tony Montana style.


Qaddaffi wants to remain in power, dying in a hail of gunfire will make him a martyr but won't leave an opportunity for his regime to return. He will be looking for revenge now against what he sees as an international conspiracy to overthrow his government. He is going to hole up in a sympathetic nation and direct an insurgency through the tribes that have propped up his regimes. His sons will die and be the martyrs for the cause.

The Libyan transitional government will face increased terrorist style attacks from the pro-Qaddaffi insurgency on top of dealing with its internal power struggles. The primary goal of the insurgency will to to discredit the transistional government and create a violent and unstable security situation that leads to an increased foreign intervention. Once the foreign advisors and troops are on the ground in great numbers, Qaddaffi will be able to point out that NATO's goal was the occupation of Libya.

In order to prevent the pro-Qaddaffi insurgecy, the transistional government is going to have to complely purge the capitol of Qaddaffi supporters. Without a functioning justice system or military, this means mass executions. The international community will not stomach that kind of bloodbath from the "good guys", and will work to prevent this from happening. Unfortunately, that will enable a greater and longer period of low-level warfare and conflict. Libya is going to be another failed African state.

I think it is likely now that the oil fields are under a greater threat than they ever have been. Libyan oil is highly valuable light-sweet crude used exclusively by Europe. Oil revenue will be a major source of funding for the transitional government. The pro-Qaddaffi insurgency will attack those fields to weaken the transistional government and deny that oil to Europe in revenge for the NATO support to the rebels.




I think one Qaddafi is done he will be done. I doubt pro-qaddafi forces will still exist as pro-qaddafi, probably more like based around his ideology. I suppose we agree, just a difference of semantics. I don't see this new Libyan government of doing anything but degrading into sectarian violence, in that case I don't think it could be called terrorism but rather on going civil war.


5 internet dollars? I'll take your bet.


On going civil war is a better term to use. Of course one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist.