T Nation

Pride 33-> Upset Central

Okay, I may be jumping the gun here calling out some potential upsets, but all the same, I won’t lie about the fact that I’m throwing down a couple hundred on Diaz to topple Gomi.

I am jaded by the fact that Diaz is my favorite fighter, even supplanting BJ at the top of my list because the guy simply shows up to fight every fight. So maybe I’m betting based on prejudice, never a good idea.

However, I also believe Trigg will beat Misaki. Pose whatever arguments you will, you aren’t going to convince me otherwise right now. I can’t stand Trigg’s commentating, but after hearing what he had to say before his fight with Miller and then seeing him perform, he has made me a believer. Misaki will not win this one.

Hendo vs Silva. Now I know Silva is the overwhelming favorite in this fight. BUT, there’s always a but after such a statement. Hendo is always a game competitor, and as the better wrestler, he could take Wanderlei down and dominate…

it isn’t as if Silva has ever proved to have a good submission game from his back. This is a maybe upset, not as possible as the other two, but possible all the same.

Rest of the card is not shaping up as competitively, but man I am way more excited about this than I was when it was just Silva vs Henderson.

Diaz is going to win godammit.

I don’t think Diaz has what it takes to beat Gomi.

[quote]StevenF wrote:
I don’t think Diaz has what it takes to beat Gomi. [/quote]

I second this.

He certainly was not able to beat some of the top UFC guys, so why would he be able to beat a top Pride guy. (This is not a Pride is better than UFC arguement.)

But I also hate Diaz.

-Machine

I’m going to be rooting for Hendo with everything I got. Wandy should win easily though. Whatever it takes to see Wandy vs Diet Nog, I want to happen. God they fuck him so bad.

Diaz is a warrior but I think Gomi is just too much for him, even with the crowd. Nick has a good chin and Gomi is going to test it pretty hard.

Kharitonov is also rumored to be on this card, hopefully getting his shit together after being the most disappointing fighter of 2006. He went from being ranked the number 5 HW in the world to being out in la-la land. He’s young, and I think he’ll make another run at the top.

[quote]machine514 wrote:
StevenF wrote:
I don’t think Diaz has what it takes to beat Gomi.

I second this.

He certainly was not able to beat some of the top UFC guys, so why would he be able to beat a top Pride guy. (This is not a Pride is better than UFC arguement.)

But I also hate Diaz.

-Machine[/quote]

I feel Diaz suffered from the UFC’s scoring system. None of the guys he lost to ever worked him over except for his first fight against Jeremy Jackson…the fight against Sherk was such an anomaly that I have no explanation for his gameplan. I felt he should have won every decision he lost except for the Sherk fight.

His jiu-jitsu is top notch and he would probably be a black belt under anyone other than Cesar. He’ll be competitive standing especially with his longer reach and ability to utilize his jab which is a strong point in his game, and it isn’t as if Gomi is going to look to take him down.

a bit off topic, but has anyone seen the line on Crocop vs Sanchez?
Crocop -1201
Sanchez +800

After the juice, its almost like breaking even if you bet a hundred on crocop.

[quote]slimjim wrote:

a bit off topic, but has anyone seen the line on Crocop vs Sanchez?
Crocop -1201
Sanchez +800

After the juice, its almost like breaking even if you bet a hundred on crocop.[/quote]

Ha, its -1500 on Sportsbook.

http://67.ufc.com/

Click on Mirko’s name to hear Dana and Rogan give him oral sex.

[quote]slimjim wrote:
machine514 wrote:
StevenF wrote:
I don’t think Diaz has what it takes to beat Gomi.

I second this.

He certainly was not able to beat some of the top UFC guys, so why would he be able to beat a top Pride guy. (This is not a Pride is better than UFC arguement.)

But I also hate Diaz.

-Machine

I feel Diaz suffered from the UFC’s scoring system. None of the guys he lost to ever worked him over except for his first fight against Jeremy Jackson…the fight against Sherk was such an anomaly that I have no explanation for his gameplan. I felt he should have won every decision he lost except for the Sherk fight.

His jiu-jitsu is top notch and he would probably be a black belt under anyone other than Cesar. He’ll be competitive standing especially with his longer reach and ability to utilize his jab which is a strong point in his game, and it isn’t as if Gomi is going to look to take him down.

a bit off topic, but has anyone seen the line on Crocop vs Sanchez?
Crocop -1201
Sanchez +800

After the juice, its almost like breaking even if you bet a hundred on crocop.[/quote]

I’ve never understood the lines posted along with bets. Is that saying that Sanchez is favored over Cro Cop?

Gomi takes the Pride bout but I’m putting money on Diaz for the post-fight hospital throwdown.

[quote]Rah-Knee wrote:

I’ve never understood the lines posted along with bets. Is that saying that Sanchez is favored over Cro Cop?[/quote]

Basically it means you have a better chance being struck by lightning than Sanchez has in beating Cro Cop.

It is entirely possible that I missing some valuable piece of info but have you seen the first Hendo vs. Silva fight?? Wandy clearly displayed more than enough takedown defense to keep henderson on his feet and then wand took hendo down. The majority of the fight was hederson getting it with kicks while laying on his back.

One of the greatest fights of all time, ever. But I think you should take a look at it before you say that wand will even need a BJJ game from his back.

Gomi will win. He is a bad man.

-chris

[quote]slimjim wrote:
Okay, I may be jumping the gun here calling out some potential upsets, but all the same, I won’t lie about the fact that I’m throwing down a couple hundred on Diaz to topple Gomi.

I am jaded by the fact that Diaz is my favorite fighter, even supplanting BJ at the top of my list because the guy simply shows up to fight every fight. So maybe I’m betting based on prejudice, never a good idea.

However, I also believe Trigg will beat Misaki. Pose whatever arguments you will, you aren’t going to convince me otherwise right now. I can’t stand Trigg’s commentating, but after hearing what he had to say before his fight with Miller and then seeing him perform, he has made me a believer. Misaki will not win this one.

Hendo vs Silva. Now I know Silva is the overwhelming favorite in this fight. BUT, there’s always a but after such a statement. Hendo is always a game competitor, and as the better wrestler, he could take Wanderlei down and dominate…

it isn’t as if Silva has ever proved to have a good submission game from his back. This is a maybe upset, not as possible as the other two, but possible all the same.

Rest of the card is not shaping up as competitively, but man I am way more excited about this than I was when it was just Silva vs Henderson.

Diaz is going to win godammit.[/quote]

[quote]Rah-Knee wrote:

I’ve never understood the lines posted along with bets. Is that saying that Sanchez is favored over Cro Cop?[/quote]

I wish they would do it with just a ratio myself, it can be confusing. Basically:

If there is a - sign before the number, that’s how much money you have to bet to win $100. Hence -1500 on Mirko, means you would have to bet 1500 on Mirko just to win 100.

If there is a + sign before the number, that is how much money you would win if you bet $100. Hence +800 Sanchez means betting $100 on Sanchez would win you 800 bucks, were he to do the impossible.

[quote]realpeanutbutter wrote:
It is entirely possible that I missing some valuable piece of info but have you seen the first Hendo vs. Silva fight?? Wandy clearly displayed more than enough takedown defense to keep henderson on his feet and then wand took hendo down. The majority of the fight was hederson getting it with kicks while laying on his back[/quote]

  1. I said it was a maybe upset, I’m not picking Hendo to win

  2. Their first fight was over six years ago

  3. There won’t be any kicks to the head of a grounded opponent.

  4. Wandy is coming off his worst loss since Vitor blindsided him, who knows how he’ll be mentally.

+800 means that if you put $100 on Sanchez, you will walk away with $900 should he win.

-1500 means that you must risk $1500 in order to recover $100 in winnings. Considering that most MMA betting sites cap the bets, it really just isn’t worth it after applicable fees.

Anybody have bad experiences with specific sites and payouts?

Also, in the instance of a fight similar to the last Saku fight, where his loss was turned to a NC, you still lose your money.

Say you put $100 on Sanchez. Mirko drops him in the first with a left straight, and then soccer kicks him in the face. DQ win for Sanchez.
Will you walk with $900, or is the fight scrapped?

[quote]DrVonNostrand wrote:
+800 means that if you put $100 on Sanchez, you will walk away with $900 should he win.

-1500 means that you must risk $1500 in order to recover $100 in winnings. Considering that most MMA betting sites cap the bets, it really just isn’t worth it after applicable fees.

Anybody have bad experiences with specific sites and payouts?

Also, in the instance of a fight similar to the last Saku fight, where his loss was turned to a NC, you still lose your money.

Say you put $100 on Sanchez. Mirko drops him in the first with a left straight, and then soccer kicks him in the face. DQ win for Sanchez.
Will you walk with $900, or is the fight scrapped?[/quote]

Pinnacle was the best, but they got shut down unfortunately. Sportsbook is still up and very reliable, but their lines aren’t as good as some places. The fights are just win/lose, it doesn’t matter the means of how, so in your example of Mirko booting Eddie in the face and losing by DQ it still counts as a Sanchez win. A NC usually just means the bet is scrapped and you get your money back. Not sure how they would have handled the Saku case.

It’s a good opportunity for Diaz. He will look emaciated at 160 I think. I also do not like Diaz’s stand-up, blocking with his head. He will have the size advantage. He is tough also.
I think Dan against Silva won’t be one-sided.

And I will go with Misaki because he never gets any love, pure unadulterated bias on my part.

who’s ready…to watch Nick put the beatdown on Gomi? Yeah buddy!

Nick Diaz is my fucking hero.

[quote]machine514 wrote:
StevenF wrote:
I don’t think Diaz has what it takes to beat Gomi.

I second this.

He certainly was not able to beat some of the top UFC guys, so why would he be able to beat a top Pride guy. (This is not a Pride is better than UFC arguement.)

But I also hate Diaz.

-Machine[/quote]

hmmmmm

You may all bow to the mighty slimjim. Thank you.

[quote]realpeanutbutter wrote:
It is entirely possible that I missing some valuable piece of info but have you seen the first Hendo vs. Silva fight?? Wandy clearly displayed more than enough takedown defense to keep henderson on his feet and then wand took hendo down. The majority of the fight was hederson getting it with kicks while laying on his back.

One of the greatest fights of all time, ever. But I think you should take a look at it before you say that wand will even need a BJJ game from his back.

Gomi will win. He is a bad man.

-chris[/quote]

I guess you were missing something.