President of the US Picks

With Ryan out…there is now “buzz” about a “Cruz-Rubio” ticket?

I think Rubio got man-handled by both Trump and Cruz. It also didn’t help that he became the “Establishment Choice”…and came out publicly and said he had no interest whatsoever in being Vice.

My thought?

He’s a Politician. He wants to stay in the spotlight. If offered he would take it.

Thoughts?

Oh, it can be done quickly, if you have the math - problem is, what will be the cost, same as it was with Obama?

You’re not going to pass all the “conservative” bills you want in a 2 year period, not gonna happen - so something will have to be left for the future. Well, if you force the GOP into really tough votes trying to cram down as much far-right legislation as you can in a short period of time (the 30 point shot), and you’ll get some done, all you’re going to do is destroy your chances of getting more down the road by losing elections and control of the Houses.

This is exactly what happened with Obamacare and the rest of Obama’s agenda.

Conservatives should be thinking about the long game. Instead, they are ignoring the lessons of history.

Merely attempting to can cost the GOP it’s majorities. See my post to Zeb. One of two things will happen:

  1. The GOP dominated houses will ignore Cruz’s desire for far-right legislation and send him mixed bills. And he’ll veto or sign (and thus sell out).

  2. The GOP will feel enabled by the advantages they hold and enough of them will try to get bold legislation through as fast and as big as possible, and GOP moderates are going to have to eat seat-losing votes. Once they do, the far-right reformation is dead in the water.

Either way, the prospects of sweeping far-right changes, outside of a few victories early in his presidency before the mid-terms - precisely those demanded by “constitutional conservatives” or bust - are not on the cards.

Cruz is sharp, and he probably knows this. But he keeps selling it to CCs as if it will happen if they just choose him over someone else.

I think he would decline. The VP position isn’t the building block for the presidency it once was (and it never really as all that great for it). Also, Cruz’s brand generally is toxic, and Rubio doesn’t want to hitch his own, more charismatic brand to that.

With right-wing views Cruz faces a large hurdle in a general election. The nomination process is not the general election, and is more favorable to extreme rhetoric of a party.

Compare him to Bernie, the uncompromising “true Democrat” if you will. Bernie sounds good to leftists and they love his point of views, but to moderates, independents, and any republican he isn’t appealing. To moderates, independents, and democrats, Cruz is not appealing.

Edit: I will add in that with Hillary being the awful candidate she is, Cruz does have a chance to win the swing votes… but its far from a guarantee. As the current matchup polling shows, the moderate Kasich does the best.

How are you so confused about Cruz? Its very simple. Get to the nomination by being the “only true conservative”. As a man interested in benefiting himself, he is doing that…

Yeah, I think it would take a GoP “superstar” to pull it off. The only one I can think of is Ryan, and he’s said nope, from what I can tell. Otherwise, to maneuver around Cruz–after first bypassing Trump–for Kasich seems to me to be far too big of a maneuver for the party as a whole (meaning, the voters included) to tolerate. I believe getting around Trump is a level of ire worth risking. His negatives are simply way too high compared to Hillary. And I don’t think the fallout last as long, as I’m not convinced Trump’s supporters have been die-hard republican voters in the first place . Cruz is another matter. Firstly, going around Cruz will piss off a major, and up to now, core of the GoP’s base. That could easily turn into long term problems for the GoP. Seondly, the “anti-establishment” wanted a voice. The GoP might still have a home for a good many of them even if they go around Trump, because there’s always a Cruz. And together, bypassing Trump and Cruz for Kasich (who is seen as more establishment) would seem to confirm the establishment charge. And lastly, there’s the contingent who will simply be turned off by the visuals of a party ignoring the will of the people. Once with Trump? "Ok, I’ll overlook it once. Negatives are reaching historical heights for a Presidential process. But twice, to the benefit of the guy last in the delegate count going into the convention? Oof.

IMO Rubio would take it. He’s young enough and confident enough to believe he would “inherit” the position after 8 successful Cruz years. (I know the intellectuals would be appalled by the shallowness of my analysis, but their body language towards each other in the debates told me that they are on friendly terms, just like Trump’s treatment of Carson in the debates told me they were on friendly terms)

If Kasich gets to the convention still with less delegates than Rubio this imo is the likely scenario i.e. deal that Cruz makes to trump Trump. Otherwise, I’m sticking with my Cruz/Kasich pick.

That’s true only Two VP’s have gone on to become President in our modern era. Richard Nixon, and it took him a second try to actually win in 1968 as he was defeated by John Kennedy in 1960. And George H.W Bush who was a one term President losing to Bill Clinton in 1992. That’s only twice in 64 years. Not a great record.

History demonstrates that Governor’s have the best chance of becoming President.

This is what makes it even more interesting.

Granted…just about ALL the pundits have been wrong this year, with many admitting (if they are honest) that they completely did NOT see Trump and Sanders coming…or the underlying feelings that have lead to their rise. (One pundit said that never again will he just sit behind his computer and “write and poll” about voter sentiment…he will actually get out there and talk to people).

Now…my original point.

Poll after poll shows Kasich as the ONLY candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton…yet his own home State is the ONLY only he has carried thus far in the Primaries!

I guess it shouldn’t actually be confusing (Primary vs. General Election Electorate)…but it does add another twist into an already crazy Presidential year.

Yeah, It’s a crazy year to be sure. I have never seen anything quite like it. As you have already pointed out Kasich losing primaries does not mean he’d lose the general election. As it is well established that the far right mostly vote in the republican primaries just as the democrats bring out the far left in their primaries.

I agree that Kasich would defeat Hillary by large margins. But even so I don’t see him getting the nomination. I think that would infuriate both Trump and Cruz supporters. But, if Cruz gets the nod and chooses Kasich that would seem to me to be a winning ticket. Trump supporters would be mad for sure. But, they are a mishmash of independents, democrats disenfranchised republicans and many, many who have never voted before. I am guessing the people that never voted before really never understood what the politicians were saying, as in they were talking over their heads. Trump has a way of sounding like “everyman”. That is an entirely different topic.

Anyway, a Cruz/Kasich ticket is a winner. Even Kasich/Cruz as Cruz would be young enough to run in 8 years. He could also bring his supporters with him should he decide to take the second half of the ticket. I doubt he would but I do think that would work if he did.

One final point about cross party polls this early…they’re just not accurate. Reagan was down by almost 20 points around this time in the election process and ended up winning by something like 5 or 6 points over the incumbent President Jimmy Carter.

Honestly, I think it is the democrats who have an even bigger problem on their hands than the republicans. When Bernie does not get the nod his supporters will not turn out for Hillary. Especially if she keeps losing and only wins because of the mysterious super delegates that only the democrats have. When Bernie’s young and also many ignorant supporters (okay that was harsh but come on everything can’t be free) hear of this they will turn their backs on the system.

Blacks will not turn out in near the numbers they did for Obama to simply vote for a paunchy looking old white women who lies a lot. Independents are not fond of Hillary. Her main voting block of women who call themselves Feminists (23% of all women) and of course unions etc. will be there for her. But, I that won’t be enough to prevent a good republican ticket from beating her.

(No I have not changed my mind Hillary is not winning)

Edit: We are all assuming she is not someone’s cell mate by November…or at least not indicted.

And Sanders beats Kasich in a national average! Though within a MoE, I suppose. But the same could be said Clinton beating Cruz… But damn near identical spreads, 2.7 for Sanders versus Kasich. 2.8 for Clinton versus Cruz.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Cruz’s views are not that extreme. He defers to the sovereignty of the states in most contentious issues, particularly social issues. I demonstrated that to you with two examples.

If I’m wrong, please tell me exactly where it is that he is extreme.

His flat tax policy is extreme. To be honest I’m not sure if its even possible, although I would be curious how the attempt would be accomplished. Our tax code could sure use some work, but no democrat and very few independent/moderates are for an overhaul like that.

Cruz himself said he was the only true conservative out of 17 (or was it 18?) candidates. He is one of the farthest, if not the farthest to the right, out of current GOP senators. His views might not be extreme to you, but he represents the right-wing of the GOP.

Maybe he will govern differently than how he voted in the senate. Maybe he’ll come to the center as many presidents have had to. The concern most of the people I’ve spoken to have is he won’t. I think it is a valid concern considering he doesn’t compromise and will stand his ground no matter what. For people who agree with him that is a good thing, but there are a lot of people who disagree.

This is by far my favorite talking point of this election cycle.

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Aren’t his proposed “constitutional conservative” policy fixes by definition extreme? Isn’t that what he is selling? The strong medicine of shrinking the government down to its “constitutional” size, and no more watered down half-measures from the squishes and the self-interested elite?

If he is a legit “constitutional conservative”, he wants to eliminate government agencies by the dozens, and yes, in modern politics, that is an extreme view.

(And that has been my question all along - if elected, will he actually try and go through with that approach?)

And this is a digression, but you don’t simply eliminate agencies. Agencies exist because Congress has passed a law and the president is obliged to execute that law, and agencies exist to do that for the executive branch. Simply getting rid of agencies without repealing the law is blatant non-enforcement of the law the president swore an oath to faithfully execute.

And I certainly don’t know enough about it to judge fairly. CPAs that I’ve talked to have all said abolishing the IRS and a flat tax aren’t possible. With a president Cruz we might find out if it is.