T Nation

Pres Debate: 10/16/2012

The second Presidential Debate is tonight (Tues. 10/16/2012). (Town Hall Format).

I thought that I would get the thread started.

I don’t see it as much of a “Game Changer” like the first one was.

I also don’t feel as though the President can “make-up” for such a poor initial performance. I’ve used the analogy in the past of the guy who clips the first hurdle in the 100 meter hurdles. When it’s done it’s done; and it’s virtually impossible to make up for the mis-step.

The only real thing I will be watching for tonight is if one format tends to “favor” one candidate over the other; but I don’t expect some surprise. (But I doubt that ANY of us expected what we saw in the first debate!)

Post away!

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The second Presidential Debate is tonight (Tues. 10/16/2012). (Town Hall Format).

I thought that I would get the thread started.

I don’t see it as much of a “Game Changer” like the first one was.

I also don’t feel as though the President can “make-up” for such a poor initial performance. I’ve used the analogy in the past of the guy who clips the first hurdle in the 100 meter hurdles. When it’s done it’s done; and it’s virtually impossible to make up for the mis-step.

The only real thing I will be watching for tonight is if one format tends to “favor” one candidate over the other; but I don’t expect some surprise. (But I doubt that ANY of us expected what we saw in the first debate!)

Post away!

Mufasa[/quote]

Obama has plenty to gain tonight. As I just posted on another thread he only needs to come out on stage look excited about being there, not drool say a few smart things and the MSLM will declare him the winner: I can read the headlines now:

“Round 2 Goes To Obama”

“Obama Comes Back”

“Debates Now Tied 1-1”

Or some such nonsense…

They are dying to write that headline. On top of that Obama will be ready tonight now that he sees that his super fantastic self actually has to work hard in order to perform well.

Finally, you said that you’ll be watching to see if the format favors one candidate over the other? LMAO! You’re kidding me right?

Candy Crowely as the moderator choosing which questions should be asked and you’re wondering who is going to be favored?

She will insert herself into this debate at every opportunity in order to make Obama look good. Everyone knows that on both sides.

This is very dangerous ground for Mitt Romney. I’m thankful that this is the second debate and was not the first or the final one.

You might see something that looks pretty even tonight even with the stacked deck. This format (even if there were a fair moderator) does not favor the slam dunk potential that the one on one format delivers.

Something that looks like a tie tonight (to most Americans not the the MSLM who will declare Obama the winner regardless) I believe is the best that Romney can hope for.

I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.[/quote]

I don’t know. I think the “weak minded” have made their mind up already. I think the undecided that are actually watching will compare this debate to the first one.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.[/quote]

Agreed. Obama runs the risk of suffering the same setbacks as Gore did in 2000 - different personalities at different debates.

The first debate already has people questioning his judgment - who doesn’t prerpare to debate Romney? - and if he is seen to be erratic with very different styles across different debates, he won’t gain much ground lost from the first debate.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.[/quote]

I don’t know. I think the “weak minded” have made their mind up already. I think the undecided that are actually watching will compare this debate to the first one. [/quote]

If Obama puts in even a passable performance in this debate by comparison to the previous debate he looks good!

That’s why Romney has nothing to gain tonight. He batted Obama around the stage so badly in the first debate he’s bound to not look as good by comparison in this debate. One with 80 people playing town hall participants and Candy (I love Obama in an unnatural way) Crowley as the moderator deciding which questions to ask.

If Obama doesn’t do well in tonights debate he might as well start packing his bags because he is going to lose.

This Debate Is Obama’s To Lose and here’s why:

  1. This is a format that favors Obama, Romney cannot get inside and work him over one on one as he did in the first debate. There are 80 peole in the way.

  2. The moderator is an adoring fan and the questions will be stacked. She will also insert herself into the debate as soon as she sees Romney gaining an edge.

  3. He’s coming off a poor performance so the expectations are low.

I hope everyone understands that the best Romney can do tonight is a perceived draw. There is no way that he can come even close to the performance that he had in the previous debate. There is far too much working against him.

I think the outcome tonight, best case for the president is slows romney’s roll. This is ignoring the chance for a historic performance for obama in the positive direction.

I think romney will be fine, and the questions will lean POTUS, but I fully expect Candy or what-her-name is to toss obama a curve ball or too just to prove her salt so to speak. I fully expect her to challenge romney, and POTUS as well, mainly in responce to the heat she is taking the last couple days. She is a woman, and is being scorned… Hell hath and all that.

I expect obama to come out on fire, and hope for his sake he doesn’t pull a biden and act like a child. He has a good chance of getting 4 more years, and I want my leader to act like a grown man, at all times. I expect romney to play it like he did in that last on, presidential.

If the ratings come in over 50mil this debate helps obama, because he will be better than last time. If it is at or under 50mil, romney keeps rolling.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

I hope everyone understands that the best Romney can do tonight is a perceived draw. There is no way that he can come even close to the performance that he had in the previous debate. There is far too much working against him.

[/quote]

I don’t know. I think mitt can “win” if he plays it right. Romney needs to focus on maintain and keeping his “likeablity” moving upward. Obama needs to do a whole hell of a lot more than that.

Romney comes in from a place of “I got this, just be me, relax and I’ll be fine”. Obama comes in from a place of “I have to come in and fuck shit up.”

That is advantage romney IMO.

CB:

What kind of heat has Crowley been taking?

Mufasa

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.[/quote]

I don’t know. I think the “weak minded” have made their mind up already. I think the undecided that are actually watching will compare this debate to the first one. [/quote]

If Obama puts in even a passable performance in this debate by comparison to the previous debate he looks good!

That’s why Romney has nothing to gain tonight. He batted Obama around the stage so badly in the first debate he’s bound to not look as good by comparison in this debate. One with 80 people playing town hall participants and Candy (I love Obama in an unnatural way) Crowley as the moderator deciding which questions to ask.

If Obama doesn’t do well in tonights debate he might as well start packing his bags because he is going to lose.

This Debate Is Obama’s To Lose and here’s why:

  1. This is a format that favors Obama, Romney cannot get inside and work him over one on one as he did in the first debate. There are 80 peole in the way.

  2. The moderator is an adoring fan and the questions will be stacked. She will also insert herself into the debate as soon as she sees Romney gaining an edge.

  3. He’s coming off a poor performance so the expectations are low.

I hope everyone understands that the best Romney can do tonight is a perceived draw. There is no way that he can come even close to the performance that he had in the previous debate. There is far too much working against him.

[/quote]

.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
CB:

What kind of heat has Crowley been taking?

Mufasa[/quote]

Both sides are bitching that she said she is bacially thumbing her nose at the debate committee rules and going to ask follow ups.

The right argue she is going to take romney to task more than POTUS (even the lefties on the morning show expect this, as they peddle the “romeny is a lair” spin), and the left is worried she will make obama talk about his record.

The right seems to be more upset about this though, and the left seems to think it play in thier favor.

Just my feel on the situation. I think this could back fire on POTUS if she plays this any where near as well as Univision did.

I have read that BOTH campaigns have not been happy with comments Crowley has made to SUGGEST that she may be more than a “question facilitator”.

She has suggested that she should be able to ask follow-up/additional questions (in addition to those asked by the Electorate).

Both campaigns have said that this was not agreed upon.

Mufasa

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

I don’t know. I think mitt can “win” if he plays it right. Romney needs to focus on maintain and keeping his “likeablity” moving upward. Obama needs to do a whole hell of a lot more than that. [/quote]

Agreed. Of all the polling, the worst one for Obama is probably Romney’s likeability polling, which now surpass the President’s.

broken thread?

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.[/quote]

I don’t know. I think the “weak minded” have made their mind up already. I think the undecided that are actually watching will compare this debate to the first one. [/quote]

If Obama puts in even a passable performance in this debate by comparison to the previous debate he looks good!

That’s why Romney has nothing to gain tonight. He batted Obama around the stage so badly in the first debate he’s bound to not look as good by comparison in this debate. One with 80 people playing town hall participants and Candy (I love Obama in an unnatural way) Crowley as the moderator deciding which questions to ask.

If Obama doesn’t do well in tonights debate he might as well start packing his bags because he is going to lose.

This Debate Is Obama’s To Lose and here’s why:

  1. This is a format that favors Obama, Romney cannot get inside and work him over one on one as he did in the first debate. There are 80 peole in the way.

  2. The moderator is an adoring fan and the questions will be stacked. She will also insert herself into the debate as soon as she sees Romney gaining an edge.

  3. He’s coming off a poor performance so the expectations are low.

I hope everyone understands that the best Romney can do tonight is a perceived draw. There is no way that he can come even close to the performance that he had in the previous debate. There is far too much working against him.

[/quote]

I agree with some of your post, but I disagree that expectations are low. I think that the leadership and intellectually honest members of the democratic party have very high expectations for the President. Higher than the did for the first debate. I would expect the man I’m backing to perform at the highest level otherwise of can I back him?

I also think Romney can still gain ground by beating Obama at his own game. It will be a challenge, but I feel like anytime a candidate is in front of the people there is a chance to gain or lose ground.

Curious as to when Romney will unveil more specifics on job creation as this seems to be be in peoples’ mind.

After owning 2 businesses and a degree in economics, I don’t need the explanation - but if you are going to say you can add 12 MM jobs, then give a skeleton of the plan.

Also - it isn’t rocket science to show a lower tax rate and equal or greater tax revenues - but showing some numbers in this case (historical data) shouldn’t confuse even the weakish and thin skinned undecideds Rpmney needs to court.

I say weak and thin skinned because ‘owww his tone is too rough’ or ‘I just can’t decide who is better because we all deserve a trophy, but damn I miss making last year as much as I did 15 years ago’

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
I have read that BOTH campaigns have not been happy with comments Crowley has made to SUGGEST that she may be more than a “question facilitator”.

She has suggested that she should be able to ask follow-up/additional questions (in addition to those asked by the Electorate).

Both campaigns have said that this was not agreed upon.

Mufasa[/quote]

LOL…yes both campaigns are upset.

The Obama campaign: “Oh no Candy Crowley who is in love with Obama and a left winger from CNN is going to ask follow up questions…what weill we ever do?”

They are playing along nicely.

Edit: Mufasa I used to think you were a lefty who was simply denying the truth. But now I don’t think that’s the case. At this point I think you are simply naive.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I only see this debate hurting the President. If he comes out and destroys it people are going to wonder what the heck was going on in the first debate and which performance is the real Obama. If he comes out and does awful again even more people are going to jump that sinking ship.

Romney will have to same something absurd for Obama to gain any ground I think. [/quote]

No one is going to wonder what happened in the first debate that is against human nature. The “wondering” took place over the past couple of weeks. It’s a brand new show tonight and if Obama hits it out of the part that is the Obama that the weak minded peole who cannot make up their minds will cling to.

Obama has everything to gain tonight based on the low expectations going in, the format and the moderator who adores the chosen one.[/quote]

I don’t know. I think the “weak minded” have made their mind up already. I think the undecided that are actually watching will compare this debate to the first one. [/quote]

If Obama puts in even a passable performance in this debate by comparison to the previous debate he looks good!

That’s why Romney has nothing to gain tonight. He batted Obama around the stage so badly in the first debate he’s bound to not look as good by comparison in this debate. One with 80 people playing town hall participants and Candy (I love Obama in an unnatural way) Crowley as the moderator deciding which questions to ask.

If Obama doesn’t do well in tonights debate he might as well start packing his bags because he is going to lose.

This Debate Is Obama’s To Lose and here’s why:

  1. This is a format that favors Obama, Romney cannot get inside and work him over one on one as he did in the first debate. There are 80 peole in the way.

  2. The moderator is an adoring fan and the questions will be stacked. She will also insert herself into the debate as soon as she sees Romney gaining an edge.

  3. He’s coming off a poor performance so the expectations are low.

I hope everyone understands that the best Romney can do tonight is a perceived draw. There is no way that he can come even close to the performance that he had in the previous debate. There is far too much working against him.

[/quote]

I agree with some of your post, but I disagree that expectations are low. I think that the leadership and intellectually honest members of the democratic party have very high expectations for the President. Higher than the did for the first debate. I would expect the man I’m backing to perform at the highest level otherwise of can I back him?[/quote]

The TV debate game is all about expectations. Each candidate and their backers try to lower the expectation for their particular candidate then when the debate begins and he beats expectations it’s called a win. That is how the game is played. It doesn’t matter how you and I think it’s played that IS how it’s played.

Secondly, Obama did so poorly the first time out the voters have lower expectations of his capabilities. Hence, when he shows up happy upbeat and says a few smart things he has exceeded expectations.

Simple.

[quote]I also think Romney can still gain ground by beating Obama at his own game. It will be a challenge, but I feel like anytime a candidate is in front of the people there is a chance to gain or lose ground.
[/quote]

Yes, Romney can beat Obama tonight no question. But if he is to do that he has to perform as well or better than he did in the first debate (see expectation game above). He then has to overcome a biased moderator and loaded questions. And if he can do all of that he then needs to have as much face to face time talking down Obama as he did last time. And he has to do that with 80 people between he and Obama.

So if he is able to achieve the near impossible he can look as good as he did in the first debate. Barring all of that Obama will look equal to Romney tonight almost regardless of who really wins.

[quote]ZEB wrote:
The TV debate game is all about expectations. Each candidate and their backers try to lower the expectation for their particular candidate then when the debate begins and he beats expectations it’s called a win. That is how the game is played. It doesn’t matter how you and I think it’s played that IS how it’s played.

Secondly, Obama did so poorly the first time out the voters have lower expectations of his capabilities. Hence, when he shows up happy upbeat and says a few smart things he has exceeded expectations.

Simple.

[/quote]

I think we disagree because, and correct if I’m wrong, but you believe the media will say Obama won if he shows up and just does better than before thus expectations are very low. I believe most people in the real world have very high expectations for the President because of how poorly he performed and because they truly expect more for the guy they backed.