T Nation

Predictions? Let's Have It!


#1

Okay, guys…

Coming from someone with a TERRIBLE record at predicting elections…the OPPOSITE of what I say will probably be the outcome.

I am where I was with 1 week out from last election (even though we are not dealing with an incumbent President):

I keep having this uneasy feeling that Trump… (much like I felt with Romney)…is going to pull off a win that will confound all Polls, Predictions and Pundits…

(And yes…I know that winning a Party Nomination is not the same as winning a General Election…)

What say ye?


#2

Now I KNOW you guys aren’t shy!

Let’s hear it!


#3

I honestly think they’re still too much behind the curtain to rationally predict. I just don’t think either side was going to use their best oppo material before the last week or so and risk letting it get consumed by the news cycle.

Based on right now information, I think Hillary wins, and it won’t be close.

I also think Comey’s latest move actually helps her, instead of hurting her.


#4

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I know exactly the outcome.

American looses. Corruption and narcissism win.

It will be interesting to see who actually turns out to vote. Trump definitely has the motivation edge. And it remains to be seen what the “nevertrump” people will do one staring at a ballot with Hillary there in black and white on the other side of it. I have the impression that a number of the nevertrump folks might vote for him despite everything. I think the real question is are the Dems motivated enough to actually go and vote this election?


#5

How? It’s highly likely that a lot will change over the next week, and much is uncertain. But how does Comey’s letter end up helping Clinton?

Do you mean specifically makes her more likely to win the election, or just that it helps in the long term if she wins anyways? (Because I could see that)


#6

I think that his is the thing that always throws me off…not electoral realities…

I thought Palin injected it after the GOP convention that year…

I thought Romney had it after the 1st Debate AND during that last week…

And in both cases I greatly underestimated the support and appeal that Senator/President Obama had.


#7

I have such a good track record of being wrong I’d hate to screw it up on this pitiable mess.

Trump takes it by 3%.


#8

My guess is that it will increase enthusiasm among Clinton’s supporters. Trump has less money, no field operation, no endorsements, a Jonathan Franzen novel’s worth of unprecedentedly stupid/ignorant public remarks as POTUS candidate, 3 debate losses, and so on, but he remains afloat for two reasons: astronomical levels of structural political polarization (essentially guaranteeing the the R and D will earn at least 40 percent of the vote each), and core supporters who are invigorated by more grievance than I’ve ever seen before. Economic grievance, racial grievance, real complaints, imaginary ones. They are an incarnate clot of identity and grievance politics, and they are absolutely brimming with bitter anger.

The feeling that their candidate has been hamstrung by the FBI may endow Clinton’s core supporters with a little of that fire. As for whether the letter itself hurts with undecideds, beyond a 3-day tightening in the polls, minds are not going to be changed in significant numbers by “we have more emails to look through to determine whether or not they affect the conclusion drawn from a prior investigation.”

As for the thread topic, I’m on board with TB. O’keefe should have at least one more video, and Trump will take at least two body blows by the weekend.

As of now, Clinton wins handily. Even if it were close going into election day – and note that it isn’t actually close when Virginia and Pennsylvania are not considered real battleground states – her enormously superior field organization will deliver her the presidency. Furthermore, the early voting numbers I’ve seen for NC and Nevaaahhhhda support the conclusion that she will have a strong firewall in states without which Trump is in existential trouble.

The lesson in the end will be this: if you want to win an election, don’t nominate a sociopathic nut with a room-temperature IQ. If you don’t want to nominate a sociopathic nut with a room-temperature IQ, purge your house of racists and loons. The GOP’s decent forty percent lost this election to its indecent forty percent. That’s all.


#9

Maybe I’m miss-remembering, but I don’t remember the giant rallies held by Palin and I don’t remember Obama speaking in front of hundreds.


#10

Because, on the front end, Comey’s move heads off a claim that the fix was in and the FBI sat on this information till after the election - so, Hillary avoids that criticism.

Second, Comey’s move is so unorthodox that even Republicans are coming to her defense and crying foul over the move.


#11

Sticking with my original prediction I made months ago. Trump wins handily.

I think a lot of Americans would find it disgraceful internationally to see a president be thrown in prison only a few months into their presidency. It also sours the historic angle - do those voting for the sake of electing a woman into power really want the first madam president be one thrown in prison? Is that supposed to be the message they want to send to their daughters?

I also think any new scandals against Trump(unless he does something) as unlikely because it’s getting late to release something. People have already begun to vote.

Trump will surprise a lot of people with how much of the black vote he gets.

Shy male Trump supporters will be big -


#12

There are apparently members of the FBI who were extremely unhappy in how the Clinton investigation was handled and this letter is an expression of their happiness.

Either that, or there’s undeniable evidence in the 650k emails found on Weiners laptop


#13

I’m not ruling out the possibility of a 266-266-6 stalemate, but I’m not optimistic of the GOP taking advantage of the free mulligan in that situation.


#14

Where did you get that number?


#15

WSJ CNBC are saying it


#16

The interesting question in this situation is who do you think would become president. My money would be on Mike Pence.


#17

Ok. That appears to be the total number, not solely the ones related to Cintons server.

650k would probably be the entire number of e-mails sent during her tenure as SOS.


#18

I predict Clinton winning. The electoral map leaves Trump absolutely no room for error, and he is prone to making errors.

As Nate Silver puts it:

“The point is really just this: Despite the recent tightening, Clinton has a fairly significant lead in the polls of about 5 percentage points. So in order to win, Trump needs a further shift because of Comey or some other news — or he needs the polls to have been off the mark to begin with.”

Trump needs a miracle. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think its highly unlikely.


#19

If the GOP holds the senate, I agree. I like to think that McMullin would convince the House that if he was elected he would immediately step aside and let Pence serve. The problem is the GOP may lose or tie the Senate, and Biden would still be the tie-breaking vote for the next VP, almost certainly giving it to Kaine.

In that case all bets are off. I would hope the House would elect McMullin. I concede he’s not ideally qualified for POTUS, but he does have the requisite foreign affairs experience.

My biggest fear is they still go with Trump, and we are left with Trump/Kaine. We get all of the baggage of having elected Trump, and when he is inevitably impeached or rendered unable to serve, we are still left with a democrat as president.


#20

Right now if he flips Virginia and North Carolina, wins Florida and Ohio where he is leading, and McMullin wins Utah then we should end in the 266-266-6 tie. The tie scenario may be more likely than Trump winning.