T Nation

Peter Schiff: Get Ready for QE3


#1

Cliffs:
-"Weaker than expected" economic data almost across the board
-the US economy is totally dependent on the Fed's bond buying to keep interest rates low
-the Fed's bond buying program, QE2, is about to come to an end
-if the Fed stops buying bonds, interest rates will skyrocket, throwing the US economy into a severe recession/depression
-if the Fed keeps buying bonds, the dollar will collapse, causing massive inflation and eventually throwing the US economy into an even worse recession/depression
-the Fed is going to keep buying bonds


#2

#3

And to those who didn’t see this coming I suggest reading Ludwig von Mises to understand what is going on.


#4

I agree, there’s now talk of downgrades as soon as this summer. If we get downgraded I hope you own some gold.


#5

[quote]John S. wrote:
And to those who didn’t see this coming I suggest reading Ludwig von Mises to understand what is going on.[/quote]

That is nonsense. If you really want to know what is going on read Etric Von Shiekles break through work. He contradicts every word of Ludwig.


#6

QE3 is just a further delay of the inevitable, as were 1 and 2. Not surprisingly, each effort makes the impending collapse worse. What’s coming will be brutal, but soooo cleansing.

Reenact Glass-Steagal. Our financial institutions shouldn’t have the ability to make risky investments if the tax payers are the ones on the hook for the losses.

Implement a flat tax, thus enabling businesses to make long term decisions. Businesses make 5-10 year plans. Extending tax rates for 2 years had similar effects as quantitative easing. I understand this would layoff a TON of IRS employees. Good. Hopefully they will get jobs that actually promote growth or goods production.

Repeal the Federal Reserve Act. I don’t need to go into detail here. Their primary purposes are to protect the purchasing power of the dollar and regulate and supervise monetary policy. Since 1913 the dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power and they have proven to be oblivious to coming recessions or how to handle them.

Someone with some cajones is going to have to explain to all the retired or soon to be that the governemt has been lying to them the past 76 years. Social security was set up as and remains an insurance policy. They have been led to believe it is their retirement package. Who can blame their logic after they’ve unwillingly invested more in social security than their personal 401ks since they can remember. I think there will be a compromise reached between reality and what they had planned.

Medicare? Major overhaul is needed, but I’m not educated enough on the subject to have an opinion. I’m clueless here. Help me out Orion or Zeb.

Audit Fort Knox. It’s unlikely the US still has gold reserves, especially since being taken off the gold standard. Still, it would be nice to know the truth. The OP probably has more gold than Fort Knox.

What else? I’m talking major bullet points. Not stuff like “Federal funds to the tune of $3 billion were spent on studying the performance of sick shrimp on treadmills”…and yes that happened.


#7

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
And to those who didn’t see this coming I suggest reading Ludwig von Mises to understand what is going on.[/quote]

That is nonsense. If you really want to know what is going on read Etric Von Shiekles break through work. He contradicts every word of Ludwig. [/quote]

Google does not seem to know who this person is.


#8

That’s because ZEB is being silly.

Seriously though ZEB, you should read Mises if you haven’t already. He is by far the best economist of the 20th century.


#9

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
He is by far the best economist of the 20th century.[/quote]

Says who?


#10

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
He is by far the best economist of the 20th century.[/quote]

Says who?[/quote]

Why, me of course.

I guess its settled then.


#11

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
That’s because ZEB is being silly.

Seriously though ZEB, you should read Mises if you haven’t already. He is by far the best economist of the 20th century.[/quote]

Rothbard -> Man Economy and State


#12

[quote]tmay11 wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
That’s because ZEB is being silly.

Seriously though ZEB, you should read Mises if you haven’t already. He is by far the best economist of the 20th century.[/quote]

Rothbard -> Man Economy and State [/quote]

Great choice.


#13

Schiff is wrong about the economy about as many times as Ron Paul is wrong about foreign affairs. They make a dynamic duo.


#14

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Schiff is wrong about the economy about as many times as Ron Paul is wrong about foreign affairs. They make a dynamic duo.[/quote]

"Current levels of unemployment are Depression-level numbers, especially when compared to Darby’s figures.

For example, economist John Williams puts current U-6 unemployment at 15.9%. That’s higher than 9 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

And there are certainly Depression-level statistics in some states. For example, official Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers put U-6 above 20% in several states:
California: 22.0
Nevada: 23.7
Michigan 20.3
(and Los Angeles County has 24.1% unemployment, higher than any of the Depression years as reported by Darby)
Williams puts SGS unemployment - which he claims is the most accurate measure - at 22.3%. That’s higher than 11 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

Youngstown State University’s Center for Working Class Studies puts the “De Facto Unemployment Rate” at 28.76%. I’m not sure if that compares to methods used during the Great Depression, but it surpasses all 12 out of 12 years charted by Darby."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28465.html

Without QE3, the depression will hit with quickly and with full force. The purpose of these QE’s is to let the depression settle in more gently, so that it can be dealt with in a more calm and rational manner.


#15

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Schiff is wrong about the economy about as many times as Ron Paul is wrong about foreign affairs. They make a dynamic duo.[/quote]

"Current levels of unemployment are Depression-level numbers, especially when compared to Darby’s figures.

For example, economist John Williams puts current U-6 unemployment at 15.9%. That’s higher than 9 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

And there are certainly Depression-level statistics in some states. For example, official Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers put U-6 above 20% in several states:
California: 22.0
Nevada: 23.7
Michigan 20.3
(and Los Angeles County has 24.1% unemployment, higher than any of the Depression years as reported by Darby)
Williams puts SGS unemployment - which he claims is the most accurate measure - at 22.3%. That’s higher than 11 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

Youngstown State University’s Center for Working Class Studies puts the “De Facto Unemployment Rate” at 28.76%. I’m not sure if that compares to methods used during the Great Depression, but it surpasses all 12 out of 12 years charted by Darby."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28465.html

Without QE3, the depression will hit with quickly and with full force. The purpose of these QE’s is to let the depression settle in more gently, so that it can be dealt with in a more calm and rational manner.
[/quote]

No the purpose of QE3 is to decrease the value of the dollar, so the relative size of our debt is reduced.


#16

Anything think that Peter does more harm than good to his cause because of his inability to stay professional when he’s on tv debating??

He needs to relax, let the other guy talk and cool it with the analogies…


#17

[quote]reddog6376 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Schiff is wrong about the economy about as many times as Ron Paul is wrong about foreign affairs. They make a dynamic duo.[/quote]

"Current levels of unemployment are Depression-level numbers, especially when compared to Darby’s figures.

For example, economist John Williams puts current U-6 unemployment at 15.9%. That’s higher than 9 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

And there are certainly Depression-level statistics in some states. For example, official Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers put U-6 above 20% in several states:
California: 22.0
Nevada: 23.7
Michigan 20.3
(and Los Angeles County has 24.1% unemployment, higher than any of the Depression years as reported by Darby)
Williams puts SGS unemployment - which he claims is the most accurate measure - at 22.3%. That’s higher than 11 out of 12 years charted by Darby.

Youngstown State University’s Center for Working Class Studies puts the “De Facto Unemployment Rate” at 28.76%. I’m not sure if that compares to methods used during the Great Depression, but it surpasses all 12 out of 12 years charted by Darby."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28465.html

Without QE3, the depression will hit with quickly and with full force. The purpose of these QE’s is to let the depression settle in more gently, so that it can be dealt with in a more calm and rational manner.
[/quote]

No the purpose of QE3 is to decrease the value of the dollar, so the relative size of our debt is reduced.
[/quote]

I think our leaders knew long ago that globalisation must lead to our relative decline. They recognized that China would play an ever-increasing role in the world. They wisely are using paper to cover over this gradual decline.

If most of the world winds up living like middle-class Americans because of this, that’s fine by me.


#18

Man Economy and state by Rothbard could have replaced most of my Macro-econ books… a long but good read.

I would differ with him though on the issue of environmental externalities.