T Nation

Palin, Walters and the Presidency


Palin tells Barbara Walters that she can beat Obama in 2012.

Well...it would be a totally useless thread to discuss that, because it would go right down political lines, and get us nowhere in terms of discussion.

I am more interested it this:

a) How would Palin fair in the GOP Primaries?

b) How would she fair in Iowa against Huckabee?

c) The GOP has to be careful how they "handle" Palin. If she is "beat up" before and during the primaries, the GOP could alienate an important base.

How should they deal with Palin? (She CERTAINLY can't be ignored).




Just to add:

Most strategist feel that Palin and Huckabee's "base" is the same.

IF the two decide to run...the early Primaries...especially Iowa...could be very interesting.



Obama vs Palin?

Oh please, for all that is holy, no.


Interesting, Orion...

It seems like Palin and all the people who interview her just "jump over" the Primaries and the GOP nomination...and get right to running against Obama.



Shit, Palin is probably the only potential GOP candidate with any chance whatsoever of winning the GOP nomination who CAN"T beat Obama. I think she'll get crushed in the primaries, but if she somehow makes it through them and wins the nomination, Obama will destroy her. It would be a huge mistake on the GOP's part if she were nominated.

There are so many other candidates that would fare better in a race against Obama, and there are also so many other candidates who would make a better President than her. If she wins, I'll set off the Lunk Alarm in the fucking nude and provide video documentation.


That is because I find it prudent to look at the end result when you actually succeed with your plans.

So lets say she gets the nomination.

What then?

Let us say she even wins the race, what then?





I read a great joke the other day in a book called "You might be a Democrat/Republican" if...

If you are a Republican...you are really happy that Palin may run for President....

If you are a Democrat...you are really, REALLY happy that Palin may run for President...




Back to Palin and the GOP Primaries.



Well, she would get the anything but Obama crowd, but so would any Republican, but she would split the tea party right in the middle and scare away the independants who made the huge swings away from Bush AND Obama possible.

So she actually could carry the nomination, but not the election.

To effectively oppose her they would have to find another tea party darling, which could split that vote and allow for a standard neocon to carry the nomination.

She actually does have an advantage in that all her dirty laundry is out in the open already.


One other thing, Orion:

She is actually MUCH better at rhetorical soundbites than debating actual policy and issues.

Now, with that said...there is no question that she is INFINITELY more knowledgeble about issues than in 2007-08...but that could still pose a problem for her against a formidable GOP opponent.



I do not see that as a weakness, at least not as far as running for office is concerned.

Since no Republican candidate is willing to talk policies, because we all know that the wars must be ended and entitlements cut back for the US not to go under but noone is touching those issues, she can outfluff them easily.

That woman can produce a soundbite about Godfamilyflagourheroesoverseas at the drop of a hat if you wake her in the middle of the night.


Palin doesn't stand a chance in the primary.


I looked at this pretty hard because we work for several "big name" Republicans. Here's my take on the contenders. When reading, keep in mind I happen to be a US Citizen, but I was born, raised, and will return to Israel, which is my real country, and this flavors my commentary.

  1. Huckabee. Huckabee is like the Shas party in Israel --- wants to impose religious social conservatism on people, while being a big-government, big-tax, and a fiscal idiot. The TEA party (which is the new base of the Republican Party --- to the extent they overlap) will dump him, but he'll remain the idol of the hard-core religous base (Southen Baptists). He would lose to Palin or even Myth Romney.

  2. "Myth" Romney --- the born-again conservative. Romney's daddy lost to Nixon (for those who have forgotten history) in a long-ago Republican primary. Nixon ran to Romney's right and Romney, senior (who was a liberal) swore he'd never lose an election by being out-flanked on the right. Romney is a big government, big spender, smarmy liberal who combines the worst qualities of Republicans and Democrats. Romney should be viewed as the Godfather of ObamaCare with RomneyCare, which was the same thing. Despite spending millions of his daddy's money, Romney is still viewed as what he is by the Republican grass roots --- a big, fat, fake.

Romney manages to chug along because of what I call "affinity fraud." This is the fraud people commit on people of like religion, like Bernie Madoff (an Orthodox Jew) who managed to rob a lot of my friends and family (also Orthodox Jews).

Myth, like Bernie Madoff did with Jews, has a commited group of mormons that he has defrauded into thinking he is something he is not. He has a built-in, dedicated, responsible campaign group ready to break out their bicycles and magic underwear and get out the vote. I plea to them: don't be a victim of affinity fraud.

Like my uncle, who told his wife that Bernie was too good to be true, they won't listen.

Also, the Republican establishment who like power (regardless of principals) love Romney, as he is one of them.

Myth will be the media's favorite candidate because he's unelectable ---- the Republican base just won't care about this slick used car salesman. They'll stay home.

  1. Gulliani --- pro abort, never make it out of the primaries

  2. Newt Gingrich -- lots and lots of personal and historical baggage making him borderline unelectiable and he's very much and insider when people want to get rid of insiders. He's remotely possible.

  3. Ron Paul -- he published a conspiracy news letter when he was a candidate and before, all about how Joooos were behind all the evil in the world and there are lots of photos of him with the Stormfront website founders. He has a consistently anti-Israel voting record made many an anti-Israel statement. Obviously, I don't like the guy. Objectively, this crap would make him unelectiable, and was not brought to the fore because he was a fringe guy. If he ever had any traction, I'd go buy adds and vote for Obama (who I hate), because Obama is too stupid to kill me and mine, even though he clearly wants to. Paul would figure out a way.

  4. DeMint ---- he's one to watch. He's certainly a fiscal conservative. He is also a social conservative, but not in a I'll-impose-Leviticus-on-you way like Huckabee.

  5. Chris Christie --- another one to watch, but he's too fat and a little socially liberal for the Republican primaries. I bet he'd be a VP slot.

  6. John Kasich --- Ohio -- another to warch

  7. Marco Rubio -- Senator Florida --- I would not be surprised if this is the guy. He's good looking, smart, conservative, and kinda cool for a politician. He's my first draft pick. Only demerit is he's new.

  8. Palin ---- she's a lot smarter than people give her credit. I've now met her several times and continue to be amazed at the difference between the public Palin and the private Paln.

I agree with Rove that her stupid reality show was an un-Presidential move, except that it keeps her in the public eye -- and makes her money.

FWIW, She was always a big friend of Chabad Lubavitch in Alaska (the "Frozen Chosen") and Bibi Netanyahu (Likud, Israel) is on record saying he favored her as his favorite candidate. That said, the McCain campaign so badly screwed her (and she let them) that I think she is damaged goods.

Smart or not, people think she is not smart. I do like her because brings out bizarre hatred in liberals (witness the guy who shot his TV because Bristol Palin was promoted on Dancing with the Stars).



Great summary, JB...; DeMint, Rubio and Palin, as of 11/2010, are perhaps the GOP frontrunners?

Who disagrees?

Two things that I've consistently said:

1) The religious right will never tolerate a Mormon candidate; so Romney should really not waste his time and money.

2) I wish I was as "dumb" as Palin. She has gone from the mayor of a small town in Alaska, with an underemployed spouse...to a millionaire, with book deals, reality shows and the adoration of millions.

She is probably laughing all the way to the bank.



One other thing, JB:

I don't agree that Obama want's to kill Jews.



And Rubio...(Gotta' bring it up, at least for discussion)...

Great looking guy (no homo...HEY! I was wondering when I could use that)...who went to the University of Florida and "Thug-U" (TheU); both of which have some of the hottest women on the planet...

South Beach; hot women; powerful, good looking guy...

Is it a set up for a "skeleton or two" in the closet?

(Politics is brutal, JB...you know that...)




Palin mentions running again today.

With the coming of the New Year...won't candidates for 2012 have to start putting together an official campaign organization; register, etc.?

In other words, speculation has to stop, and they have to really start putting together an organization?



She's very wrong. The mainstream liberal media is not about to let Palin become President. They'll give her a worse beating in 12' than they did in 08'.


BUT what about the GOP in the Primaries, Zeb?

THAT'S the more interesting question.

"The Establishment" doesn't want her to run (which will probably fuel her fires even more).

Do they "beat her up" in the Primaries? Take a more "low-key" approach?

Do they get behind her as a candidate?

The Primaries, not her run against Obama, is the more interesting question to me.



She will have a lot of support in the primaries as she knows how to feed red meat to the crowd. But if she's not stopped before she wins the primary Obama will have another four years.