85-90% Pac by UD Why: Pac will not KO Mosley. Mosley has never been KO'd and it ain't going to happen now. Pac is arguably just as fast as Mayweather, but isn't as defensive minded nor does he have the jab reach Mayweather has. So Pac will have to commit more, so he wins rounds by coming in and out and tiring Mosely.
10-15% Mosley by KO Why: Pac wants to put on a show and will bang. Mosley definitely has the power to KO Pac and because Pac will throw punches in bunches, there's a chance an uppercut will slip through. An uppercut is Pac's main weakness. Look at the Cotto and Margarito fight. They hit him with some hard uppercuts. Maybe a left hook, right uppercut, left hook, straight right combination.
Well having a game plan and executing it are two different things Styles make fights and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mosley win. Let's see if Mosley can use his height and reach advantage on Pac, something he didn't have on Mayweather. Pac has to come in, so he's going to take some hard shots. Should be interesting, too bad I'm not watching.
-Pac likes to mix it up but he's also not stupid enough to let it end the fight early for him, some people are thinking Pac is just going to stand toe to toe with Mosley but that isn't the case. Pac has the footwork and stamina to take it to the middle rounds and beyond even if Mosley comes out swining.
-Mosley has serious stamina issues. If he doesn't end the fight early he'll be in the ring with someone that averages 50 punches or more per round.
-Mosley is going to want to make it a fight, Mosley never looks to outbox someone. If he gets frustrated and has trouble pulling the trigger Pac can hit him with a couple shots and get out.
While I respect Mosley it's just hard to pick the current version of him. If this was right after beating Margarito I'd be really confident about him getting the upset, currently I think it'll look somewhat like Pac/Cotto.
This has my interest piqued. What do the pro fighters see happening?
I guess my strategy for Mosely would be to circle to his left and try to win with jabs and hooks, uppercut when Pacquiao gets in and then lean on him, muscle him, try to make Pacquiao run into stiff jabs or short uppercuts all night. Basically what De La Hoya should have tried. I just do not think it happens.
Actually, the one guy I was talking to said exactly the opposite of what you might think, and he's experienced in fighting southpaws. He said Mosely should circle to Pac's left, because that effectively eliminates the right hook as a good weapon.
Pac being the fighter that he is will come right after him, and he said Mosely should wait for him to throw that left hand, step back and out as soon as he does, and then counter with a hard right hand and catch Pac walking in.
Make no mistake, Mosely's main weapon will be the straight right hand, and if he's got the speed to lead with it and land it, he's got the corresponding power to take Pac out. This is the guy who wobbled Mayweather and demolished Margo... he's got that power.
Pac is gonna wanna mix it up- so is Mosely. That's not a good thing for Pac, because Mosely has taken beatings from way bigger guys and not been KO'd.
Of course, there's still Pac's speed, and whether or not Mosely could pull off the plan even if he implemented it.
I see this fight as more even than most namely because of Nazim Richardson's training methods and strategy. But I still would put my money on Pac at this point. He's so damn fast.
Well, this is why I do not think Mosely should step to his right and try to time Manny. Pac's speed and footwork make that plan risky. I always felt cutting to an opponent's inside favored the faster (hand speed, foot speed, and reaction time) fighter. That is not Shane in my eyes. Of course, the pro certainly knows far more about this than I do. Thanks for the update/response.
Mosley doesn't have a punishing jab but can really crack with the right hand and the sweeping left hook. He can also (well he used to) switch to southpaw to put distance between himself and his opponent's left hand. He'll need to do a mix of that and some clinching to frustrate Pacquiao in order to beat him. The thing he cannot afford to do is wait to counter. When Shane waits, he really waits, waits and waits some more for the perfect opportunity to do it. The more things aren't going his way, the more he waits.
Pacquiao has speed, explosiveness awkwardness on his side. He should try to tattoo Shane up and down early, throw right hooks to the body under Shane's pawing jab while circling to his own right and be elusive. He should then put mustard on the money shots as the fight progresses and he figures out Shane's defensive flaws and the flurries have edged Shane into his "waiting" tendencies.
Blow for blow I think Shane can hurt Manny more than Manny can hurt him but Shane will have to take more chances to win. Manny will probably pull the trigger successfully a bit more often as he'll be less out of his comfort zone i.e. combination move, flurry, bounce. Moreover, Manny's more consistently tempered from fight to fight. With Shane you can never tell how aggressive or tense he's going to be. For these reasons I think Manny will win 116-112.
I thought cutting to the inside favors the stronger fighter. Unless your just racking up points. You really can't gather the strength that comes from a full punch and snap on the inside. If you can take the punch and throw a harder one you have a much better chance inside. It's just more scary, you need somebody with no fear or hesitation like Tyson in the 80s
I think there are a couple of ways Mosley could win, Mosley will just have a difficult time executing it.
I think the most sensible thing is for Mosley to work the jab, circle away from Pac's left, look for counter opportunities, and let Pacquiao make mistakes where he puts himself on the ropes or opens himself up for big shots by taking risks. While it sounds good on paper Mosley simply can't execute it and would end up looking for opportunities rather than creating them and the difference in hand & foot speed will mean Pac can come in, land combos, and get out without Mosley being able to get anything started. Basically what happened when Mosley tried to fight Mayweather's fight.
The more realistic thing for Mosley is to just take the fight to Pac, tie up, and cut off the ring instead of chasing. Pac will consistently provide openings but this will also open Mosley up to shots. I think the problem is a problem Mosley will face no matter what he does in the fight and that's he's had problems pulling the trigger lately, he'll probably get more than he gives and if Pac messes up can open a cut or swell up Mosley's eye it'll be an ugly fight.
It's disappointing to see something that provided fighters a chance to earn more money is now a way to just avoid fighters because of the risk/reward ratio. Pay per view just isn't providing the products it once offered. Now when faced with a real challenge the top fighters in the sport would rather engage in a proxy war and posturing instead putting on a fight the fans would like to see. It's also trickled down to lower profile fighters and has created an enormous sense of entitlement in fighters, Andre Berto is/was a perfect example of this.