It’s all just a bunch of posturing on Kim Jong-un’s part. This is a kid who was educated outside of NK for most of his life and has had little to no experience within the regime itself and suddenly found himself the top dog over there by virtue of who his father was and not by virtue of his own merits.
There are probably a dozen or so high-ranking members of the NK military/gov’t who felt that they were/are imminently more qualified to take over control of NK than Kim Jong-un and are bitter that they were passed over. Kim Jong-un is no dummy and understands this. He’s smart enough to know that there are most likely a LOT of very “capable” people right underneath him on the totem pole that would like to remove him and make a play for the top spot.
So, he has a few options. He can murder everyone right below him in order to discourage future generations of generals and so forth from aspiring to greater heights. But he probably doesn’t have the stomach or the inclination to go that Machiavellian of a route. He can sit there and do nothing, or worse yet, make legitimate overtures toward reconciliation/detente with the West. He can push the Big Red Button (which, in virtually ALL likelihood, is not connected to anything that can legitimately threaten SK or the U.S.). Or, he can continue his father’s legacy of making irrational, unsubstantiated and hollow claims and threats. His father did the same for a very long time and it apparently kept him in power.
And that’s what the kid is doing. He knows that anything less than a hard-line stance towards us will give those who are below him and itching for more power exactly the excuse they need to remove him from power. The two options he has regarding this hard-line stance is to either ramp up a bunch of empty rhetoric or act on it. Since he hasn’t acted on it and he hasn’t been murdered by his own minions for not doing more than talking about it, I assume that he has no capability to act upon these threats. Only time will tell for sure.
The other thing is that it would be foolhardy for the U.S. to step in and try to become the major player in quieting this idiot down with actual military action. Like someone else mentioned, we haven’t exactly done the best job in Afghanistan against a much less advanced fighting force. NK is hardly a military superpower and isn’t going to be one anytime soon, but they have a HUGE standing army. There’s no way we lose a war of any kind in NK, but whether or not we can actually win that war is a different story.
And China does NOT want NK to start fucking shit up over there for them. China is at a point now where they simply don’t want other countries in the region rocking the boat. But they also aren’t going to stand for the U.S. being the one who gets the foot in the door over there first and ends up with the head start on rebuilding NK and all the access to their resources and the increased geopolitical influence that comes with it. If a country near us, say Canada for instance, were threatening to nuke China into the Stone Age we definitely would not stand for China coming in and engaging in any sort of preemptive defense of themselves, something they would be justified in wanting to do, given the nature of the threat made against them. I can’t imagine China feeling any different about the current situation.
So if we were to go into NK preemptively, we would essentially find ourselves trying to outdo China right in their own backyard, which would stretch our own military resources way too thin for control over a country that is pretty much destitute and has little to offer to us in relation to the cost we would incur. Historically speaking, whatever power in the region has been able to control the Korean peninsula (be it China or Japan) has had the advantage tilted in their favor when it comes to military and economic matters. China simply isn’t going to stand for NK being blown away unless they are definitely the ones who get to benefit from picking up the pieces.
In other words, since China has a stake in what goes on with NK, let them deal with those wackos if at all possible. It would be much more worth it to us if we could simply let China take on that fight for us and let them have whatever’s left of NK when all is said and done. I think that sort of action, or rather, lack thereof, would also help improve our relations with China to a certain extent. The fact is that while we are clearly superior to China from a military standpoint, it would behoove us to avoid any sort of confrontations with them, even if those confrontations would be by proxy as any sort of race to conquer, redevelop and mold NK in our image would most likely end up being.
[quote]sufiandy wrote:
If it came to the point of an actual threat from them (real not just talk) I wouldn’t be surprised if we have enough info to take out their nuclear facilities quickly. If they were able to attack us somehow it would probably be just once and we would have troops on their soil for the next 10 years. It’s almost like we want an excuse to get over there but as long as they are all talk we can’t really make the first move.[/quote]
This…except there would be no boots on the ground in retaliation. It has always been the policy of our country that any nuclear attack against us would be met with equal retribution, or worse. There would be no life on that upper penninsual for the next 5,000 or so years except for cockroaches…
As it should be, IMO.
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I think the relatively small geographical area of the Korean peninsula would negate the strategy of the above. A nuclear attack on the North would also likely devastate the South. We might be very uneasy about destroying a strong ally while also destroying an enemy.
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I see where you are coming from, but I feel that IF NK was to send a nuke we have no choice but to wipe them off the face of the Earth. I would hate to see it come to that.
Eh, the best way to use nuclear weapons is to detonate them above ground/airborne to increase the area of effect, allowing the reaction and it’s path to maximize without limitation/ constriction.
I don’t quite understand what the huge leap in technology is for this in rocketry. Once they have the nuclear tech and ability to detonate/ create the nuclear reaction, the next part is just detonating it where it’s going to cause the most casualties/damage. German scientist had already figured it the rocket aspect during ww2, so N. Korea already has the hard part figured out.
Only part they need is to be able to get the rocket path right, and to detonate the warhead at the optimal height…
I was ready to go to war with N. Korea back when we decided to invade Iraq, I was stationed there conducting cross training ops with ROK Marines. That fight, if it ever goes down is going to be ugly, the way the lines are and Seoul’s position, count on mass civilian casualties. Got a ton of respect and love for our allies over there, what a horrible situation this is.
It’s only about 24 miles from Seoul to the DMZ.[/quote]
For all practical purposes even our strategic nukes nowadays are “tactical”. The exact accuracy of them is of course classified but the unclass number is somewhere around the 300 foot radius. With proper yield, you could definitely spot up on Pyonang without immediate effect to the South.
I don’t know how the subsequent radiation effects would carry but the areas outside of Nagasaki and Hiroshima were ok, but not sure how far out the effects were.
It’s only about 24 miles from Seoul to the DMZ.[/quote]
For all practical purposes even our strategic nukes nowadays are “tactical”. The exact accuracy of them is of course classified but the unclass number is somewhere around the 300 foot radius. With proper yield, you could definitely spot up on Pyonang without immediate effect to the South.
I don’t know how the subsequent radiation effects would carry but the areas outside of Nagasaki and Hiroshima were ok, but not sure how far out the effects were.[/quote]
NK’s 1,000,000 man army won’t be hanging out in Pyonang when the excrement strikes the fan. They’ll be in or more likely across the DMZ inside of SK. Radiation from nuclear strikes by us would likely be devastating to SK if we smacked 'em thataway.
I’m no Korean War II expert though by any means.[/quote]
I agree with what your saying about SK being affected. News today is the U.S is beefing up west coast missile defense system.
[quote]sufiandy wrote:
If it came to the point of an actual threat from them (real not just talk) I wouldn’t be surprised if we have enough info to take out their nuclear facilities quickly. If they were able to attack us somehow it would probably be just once and we would have troops on their soil for the next 10 years. It’s almost like we want an excuse to get over there but as long as they are all talk we can’t really make the first move.[/quote]
This…except there would be no boots on the ground in retaliation. It has always been the policy of our country that any nuclear attack against us would be met with equal retribution, or worse. There would be no life on that upper penninsual for the next 5,000 or so years except for cockroaches…
As it should be, IMO.
<>[/quote]
I think the relatively small geographical area of the Korean peninsula would negate the strategy of the above. A nuclear attack on the North would also likely devastate the South. We might be very uneasy about destroying a strong ally while also destroying an enemy.
[/quote]
I see where you are coming from, but I feel that IF NK was to send a nuke we have no choice but to wipe them off the face of the Earth. I would hate to see it come to that.[/quote]
If the USA were to nuke another country in this day and age, the world would change. There is no coming back from such a thing.
Only part they need is to be able to get the rocket path right, and to detonate the warhead at the optimal height…
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Which requires an absurdly smart guidance system that relies on stars (yes fucking stars millions of miles away) to position itself perfectly…
AND release the warhead at the right spot in outer space
AND make sure the warhead is able to re-enter the earth’s atmosphere without disintegrating
AND make sure the warhead free falls to its right location
AND make sure the warhead denoates at the right spot to be effective
There is a reason there are only a handful of countries with this technology…it isn’t all that simple.
Edit: This all assumes that they manage to get the launch off without us intercepting the rocket on liftoff or the warheads on reentry…[/quote]
Not only that, but think about all the other technology we have. Anti missile systems are fairly standard for a lot of naval ships now. Any nuclear missiles fired will not make it off the peninsula if the entire pacific fleet is monitoring the area closely. The only real possible attack is tactical nukes used against ground forces on the peninsula
Good bump. I was thinking of bumping myself, glad someone else did. Thanks
I hadn’t thought about wiping out NK without Nukes. I just sure as shit don’t want to send troops over there on the ground until it is a parking lot. That is if they were to use Nukes 1st, or try to use them. I just don’t want to have to put troops over there on the ground in a war.
