T Nation

NFL - Week 4

Another 6 of 15 week. Philly and SF failed to make my spread, else it would have been 8. I almost pulled out the Oakland upset. Also, the Iggles defense brutalized Rothlisberger as I predicted, even though they were short of my spread. Happily, I am doing well on the FEARLESS SPREADs and Budweiser Lock of the Week.

You know, I may make jokes when I pick the Giants, Rams, and Lions to lose by 21 every week, but MEIN GOTT, this is another week wherein the Lions lost by 18 and the Rams by 21+. Unbelievable.

Seriously, any spread greater than 10 is an iffy thing, since something like >75% of NFL games are decided by 10 or fewer points. The Rams and Lions reek this season. There is no gravity - these teams suck, creating the effect.

Now, for WEEK FOUR:

  1. SF @ NO - Bah, why do I gotta pick this one? Who cares about either team, really? When was the last time you met a 49’ers or Saints fan? I liked the Saints when Archie Manning played for them, if that tells you anything. I liked the 49’ers when Y.A.

Tittle played for them, and I cannot even remember Y.A. Tittle. Who? Tittle? The man had to go through life named “tittle.” No wonder he grew up tough. *sigh. Okay, I liked Ronnie Lott. Anyway, Saints are at home, San Fran sucks, and I gotta go with Saints by 4.

  1. HOU @ JAC - Another boring game. Why do they play these things? Do the Texans and Jaguars have fans? Jaguars by 4.

  2. CLE @ CIN - The “Miller Beer Sponsored Battle of Losers” game. Only one can lose. It won’t be Cincy. Bengals by 3.

  3. ATL @ CAR - The sun has shown upon Atlanta’s butt for a while, now, but the cloud of Carolina shall pass over the sun of fortune, and metaphors shall run amok. Carolina by 3.

  4. ARI @ NYJ - The Cardinals have been surprising (or not, as I pointed out last week). The Jets have underachieved. While I think the Jets will consistently lose to teams who’ll be over .600 at season’s end, I don’t see them losing this one. Jets by 7. FEARLESS SPREAD

  5. MIN @ TEN - Can Tennessee win 4 in a row? I think they can. Jeff Fisher is already one of the best NFL coaches ever, and gets better every game. Titans by 6.

  6. DEN @ KC - Gee, I dunno… Okay, I have to go with Denver, here, since I analyzed it all and KC is a pile of stool. Broncos by 7 FEARLESS SPREAD

  7. GB @ TB - Oooh… Tampa Bay is overachieving right now. Green Bay is teribly tough. Who to pick? Road win for Green Bay? I do believe so. Packers by 4.

  8. SD @ OAK - I almost feel bad for the Raiders. This is, of course, the “Budweiser Beer Sponsored Lock of the Week” and the Chargers will win by 7.

  9. BUF @ STL - Bills by 21. Duh.

  10. WAS @ DAL - It is in Dallas, so instead of Dallas by 4, I will man up and say Dallas by 10. Brian Tomlinson wanted me to go 15, but I must punk out and go with 10.

  11. PHI @ CHI - This is the Game to Watch (if it is on… late game, right? It may be on…). Should be a true defensive battle royale. Neither team will run it for more than 75 yards. McNabb will win out. Eagles by 4.

  12. BAL @ PIT - My inside man (well, Scott Burden) tells me to go with Pitt by 7. Instead, I’ll say Steelers by 7. I mean, why share the glory, right?

Detroit and the Giants are on bye weeks, but incredibly, both will STILL lose by 21.

SF @ NO - NO
HOU @ JAC - Jac
CLE @ CIN - Cin
ATL @ CAR - Car
ARI @ NYJ -NYJ
MIN @ TEN - Ten
DEN @ KC - Den
GB @ TB - TB
SD @ OAK - SD
BUF @ STL - Buf
WAS @ DAL - Dal
PHI @ CHI - Phi
BAL @ PIT - Pit

No cute Canadian jokes from me this week. I will, however, contribute my picks. So far I am 31/47 ATS this year picking every game. My league has some pretty nice cash riding on it so I don’t mess around. It’s a little early in the week for laying down already but probably going with the following.

My picks:

SF +6
Arizona +2.5
Cleveland +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Carolina -7
Minnesota +3
Jacksonville -7.5
Kansas City +9
St Louis +8
San Diego -7.5
Washington +11.5
Philly/Chi…No line yet
Pitts/Balt…No line yet

Like alot of underdogs this week. Lot of teams giving up too many points. I think Carolina and Tennessee are pretenders. Take the over on Cle/Cin. Buffalo might get beat straight up. Washington might beat Dallas straight up. Not saying I’m going to bet those but might make a small play on the money line for giggles.

[quote]The Bambino wrote:
Like alot of underdogs this week. Lot of teams giving up too many points. I think Carolina and Tennessee are pretenders. Take the over on Cle/Cin. Buffalo might get beat straight up. Washington might beat Dallas straight up. Not saying I’m going to bet those but might make a small play on the money line for giggles. [/quote]

Whew!! I was hoping someone would bet against God’s Team. It’s a jinx to have everyone on the bandwagon.

But, I think you are going to lose the +11.5 bet. Washington will lose by at least 14.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
The Bambino wrote:
Like alot of underdogs this week. Lot of teams giving up too many points. I think Carolina and Tennessee are pretenders. Take the over on Cle/Cin. Buffalo might get beat straight up. Washington might beat Dallas straight up. Not saying I’m going to bet those but might make a small play on the money line for giggles.

Whew!! I was hoping someone would bet against God’s Team. It’s a jinx to have everyone on the bandwagon.

But, I think you are going to lose the +11.5 bet. Washington will lose by at least 14. [/quote]

You may be right but I just see it as a letdown type game for Dallas. Not a primetime game, and Washington doesn’t look too terrible so far. I think Dallas is a real good team, but I’m thinking like 13-3 good, not 15-1 good. They’ll drop a couple somewhere. Anyway, might be worth a small play on the moneyline just to see if my hunch is correct.

[quote]NeelyDan wrote:
13. BAL @ PIT - My inside man (well, Scott Burden) tells me to go with Pitt by 7. Instead, I’ll say Steelers by 7. I mean, why share the glory, right?
[/quote]

Your inside man gives Pittsburgh 7 points when they’ll be playing without Casey Hampton or Willie Parker, and will be starting a rookie RB with fumble-itis against the #1 defense in the league?

Baltimore will at least cover that spread, if not win outright.

[quote]Doug Adams wrote:
NeelyDan wrote:
13. BAL @ PIT - My inside man (well, Scott Burden) tells me to go with Pitt by 7. Instead, I’ll say Steelers by 7. I mean, why share the glory, right?

Your inside man gives Pittsburgh 7 points when they’ll be playing without Casey Hampton or Willie Parker, and will be starting a rookie RB with fumble-itis against the #1 defense in the league?

Baltimore will at least cover that spread, if not win outright.
[/quote]

Those are two posititions the Steelers can actually replace. Chris Hoke is a stud and Mendenhall is talented if he hangs onto the rock. Besides, Pittsburgh never runs well against the Ravens (at least not since #36 retired).

Doug Adams has it out for NeelyDan, lol.

[quote]NeelyDan wrote:
Doug Adams has it out for NeelyDan, lol.[/quote]

Nah, just the Steelers.

[quote]The Bambino wrote:
No cute Canadian jokes from me this week. I will, however, contribute my picks. So far I am 31/47 ATS this year picking every game. My league has some pretty nice cash riding on it so I don’t mess around. It’s a little early in the week for laying down already but probably going with the following.

My picks:

SF +6
Arizona +2.5
Cleveland +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Carolina -7
Minnesota +3
Jacksonville -7.5
Kansas City +9
St Louis +8
San Diego -7.5
Washington +11.5
Philly/Chi…No line yet
Pitts/Balt…No line yet

Like alot of underdogs this week. Lot of teams giving up too many points. I think Carolina and Tennessee are pretenders. Take the over on Cle/Cin. Buffalo might get beat straight up. Washington might beat Dallas straight up. Not saying I’m going to bet those but might make a small play on the money line for giggles. [/quote]

Would love to hear your rationale behind the rams and chiefs picks.

It’s just too many points. I can easily see the line on the KC game going to 10 before kickoff because the public money is all over Denver at a 70/30 clip. I usually fade anything where it’s that lopsided.

With the Rams, it’s pretty much the same. Just too many points. Maybe the QB change won’t allow Buffalo to be as prepared as they would be. Plus I’m not totally sold on the Bills yet. Too many points.

LoL, Jacksonville already used the single wing

Where is that Cowboys 16-0 thread?

lol

[quote]The Bambino wrote:
No cute Canadian jokes from me this week. I will, however, contribute my picks. So far I am 31/47 ATS this year picking every game. My league has some pretty nice cash riding on it so I don’t mess around.

It’s a little early in the week for laying down already but probably going with the following.

My picks:

SF +6
Arizona +2.5
Cleveland +3.5
Tampa Bay -1
Carolina -7
Minnesota +3
Jacksonville -7.5
Kansas City +9
St Louis +8
San Diego -7.5
Washington +11.5
Philly/Chi…No line yet
Pitts/Balt…No line yet

Like alot of underdogs this week. Lot of teams giving up too many points. I think Carolina and Tennessee are pretenders. Take the over on Cle/Cin. Buffalo might get beat straight up. Washington might beat Dallas straight up. Not saying I’m going to bet those but might make a small play on the money line for giggles. [/quote]

Good call on KC but I think Ten is for real this year regardless of the QB. And if Car can go 1 for 2 with TB I think they will win the divition.

The Cowboys D has look very flat sense week one and are avrage at best. Romo seams to get down on him self real easy and didnt look good after the Int ecpt for the last drive.

good weekend of football lost of upsets and some very close games

O and Jet Farve was great the D needs to step it up though.

I thought maybe after last week Cin would get their shit together…nop. They might go 0-16…do they play the Rams?..Nope both these teams might go 0-16. Wouldnt that be great!

Chargers with a great comeback to beat the Raiders thanks to a 2nd half defensive beat down. Broncos lost to the Chiefs, muahahaha. LJ ripped their defense into shreds. Makes the division much tighter now.

Yesterday was the first Sunday I’ve had to relax and watch football. Caught all or most of GB/TB, DAL/WAS, and PHI/CHI. It was great. All I need now is the Stillers to send the fucking Ravens back to the slums with their tails between their legs and this will be a perfect weekend.

Washington looked great yesterday. They outplayed the Cowboys on both sides of the ball. The NFC East is so strong it’s ridiculous. They should be allowed to send 4 teams to the postseason. Nobody will miss the NFC West division winner, anyhow.

Philly took a tough one last night. Down 4 in the 4th, with 4 plays from inside the 5 and you don’t give McNabb the ball once? With no Westbrook??? Terrible play calling. Kyle Orton looked really good, considering he is, after all, Kyle Orton. Madden actually made a very astute observation, in that Orton looks as good as any QB in the league inside the 20. That held up pretty well last night.

Oh, and the Steelers are dumb as hell for taking Mendenhall over Forte in the first round. That kid’s for real.

Suck it Packers. Suck it.

[quote]esk221 wrote:
Suck it Packers. Suck it.[/quote]

The Packers tackling this year has been horrible. I don’t know how many times they had Dunn or Graham stopped in the backfield but let them go and get positive yardage. Horrible.

[quote]dre wrote:
esk221 wrote:
Suck it Packers. Suck it.

The Packers tackling this year has been horrible. I don’t know how many times they had Dunn or Graham stopped in the backfield but let them go and get positive yardage. Horrible.

[/quote]

As a Packer fan, I’m still trying to understand things. After the Monday nighter against Minnesota Rodgers was ridiculously praised for being all of Favre’s good things and none of his bad. Then he led the team to victory and it was official – Rodgers was the right move.

Well, after 4 weeks it’s obvious Minnesota’s just not that good and Detroit always sucks. Now add that to losses against the overrated Cowboys and very average Bucs.

Next thing is health. Before he was even a starter, Rodgers missed significant time to injury. Now that he is a starter he lasted 4 fucking games? He ran to the sideline grimacing after a play where HE WASN’T EVEN TOUCHED!?

At the same time, the man he replaced is leading the league in TD’s while learning an entirely new offense under new coaches with new teammates. He also just started his 280th straight game playing on a rolled ankle.

I’m really trying to be fair to Rodgers. The two losses were not entirely his fault and he’s still very early in his career to make any real judgments. But it’s still hard for me to see how this team – one that was an overtime away from the Superbowl last year – is better with Rodgers as the starter.