[quote]vroom wrote:
The problem with bubbles is that they tend to fly under the radar until it’s too late.
[/quote]
I called the oil crash months ago - back when it was still well over $100/barrel.
Bubbles only fly under the radar of the ignorant.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
vroom wrote:
The problem with bubbles is that they tend to fly under the radar until it’s too late.
I called the oil crash months ago - back when it was still well over $100/barrel.
Bubbles only fly under the radar of the ignorant. [/quote]
x2
I called the housing bubble and the oil bubble before they burst, as did a number of my friends. Although I wouldn’t necessarily say they fly under the radar of the ignorant. I believe the bubble participants KNOW they’re playing the game of the greater fool, and they’re expecting to get out before the music stops. Of course they rarely do.
On a side note, why the hate on fiat money? Gold has not more( well, not much more )intrinsic value than fiat money. Just as with fiat money, it doesn’t have all that many industrial uses. There are a few, but it’s not nearly as industrially useful as, say, palladium, nickel, or copper. It also suffers from its own form of inflation, in the sense that it is always being mined, and therefore the supply is always increasing. The supply of gold is potentially in danger of being hyperinflated by technological breakthrough in mining or extraction technique - which would immediately cause a Russian style devaluation. Most importantly, gold has only as much value as people ascribe to it. Hence, its price has been historically even more volatile than currency markets. To consider it a “stable” form of currency is ludicrous.
Oh, and yes, treasuries are absolutely the next bubble to pop.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
vroom wrote:
The problem with bubbles is that they tend to fly under the radar until it’s too late.
I called the oil crash months ago - back when it was still well over $100/barrel.
Bubbles only fly under the radar of the ignorant. [/quote]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apOfQPG89LuI&refer=home
“The S&P 500 extended its 2008 slide to 41 percent. The National Association of Realtors said the median resale price of single-family houses dropped 13 percent last month, the most since records began in 1968 and likely the largest decline since the 1930s. The Commerce Department said the economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter as consumer spending fell the most in almost three decades. Initial jobless claims rose to 586,000, the most since November 1982.”
As the Depression begins to really hit hard, we might see $20 oil again. Tankers are literally sailing the seas with no one to buy their oil. The ports around the world are clogged with goods (even oil?) that no one wants.
This ‘recession’ is going to bottom in 2014 — 5 years! Wow! The human suffering, getting worse by the day, will be almost too terrible to contemplate.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
This ‘recession’ is going to bottom in 2014 — 5 years! Wow! The human suffering, getting worse by the day, will be almost too terrible to contemplate.
[/quote]
I think it bottoms way before 2014. But if you are bound and determined to live your life based on graphs - no one is going to stop you.
I think it will take until about 2014 to get out of the hole, but there is a shit ton of money to be made during that time.
People who spend their lives looking back never see the opportunity that lies right in front of them.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
This ‘recession’ is going to bottom in 2014 — 5 years! Wow! The human suffering, getting worse by the day, will be almost too terrible to contemplate.
I think it bottoms way before 2014. But if you are bound and determined to live your life based on graphs - no one is going to stop you.
I think it will take until about 2014 to get out of the hole, but there is a shit ton of money to be made during that time.
People who spend their lives looking back never see the opportunity that lies right in front of them. [/quote]
We only have the past as a guide, in how to react to the present and the future. If you are adept at changing according to circumstances, that’s fine. However, human behavior usually changes very slowly. The charts are a reflection of how humans reacted in the past to events. Its pretty likely the charts have something meaningful to say about the future. When you invest, do you do so ‘tabula rasa’? No. You use your past experience.
The problem we have is that we built a society on ever-increasing debt. That process has now reached its end. No one can increase their debt anymore. Even the Feds have limits or foreign currency holders will flee from the dollar. California has 42 billion in debt — who will lend to them now? Consumers are wallowing in debt. There is no one left to increase debt.
Its like we built all our society on being able to hunt and eat elk. Now the elk are all gone. End of game (pun intended ;> )
Uh oh…
[quote]haploid wrote:
rainjack wrote:
vroom wrote:
The problem with bubbles is that they tend to fly under the radar until it’s too late.
I called the oil crash months ago - back when it was still well over $100/barrel.
Bubbles only fly under the radar of the ignorant.
x2
I called the housing bubble and the oil bubble before they burst, as did a number of my friends. Although I wouldn’t necessarily say they fly under the radar of the ignorant. I believe the bubble participants KNOW they’re playing the game of the greater fool, and they’re expecting to get out before the music stops. Of course they rarely do.
On a side note, why the hate on fiat money? Gold has not more( well, not much more )intrinsic value than fiat money. Just as with fiat money, it doesn’t have all that many industrial uses. There are a few, but it’s not nearly as industrially useful as, say, palladium, nickel, or copper. It also suffers from its own form of inflation, in the sense that it is always being mined, and therefore the supply is always increasing. The supply of gold is potentially in danger of being hyperinflated by technological breakthrough in mining or extraction technique - which would immediately cause a Russian style devaluation. Most importantly, gold has only as much value as people ascribe to it. Hence, its price has been historically even more volatile than currency markets. To consider it a “stable” form of currency is ludicrous.
Oh, and yes, treasuries are absolutely the next bubble to pop.
[/quote]
First of all, while gold MIGHT, eventually, at some time in the future, given some extraordinary circumstances, hyperinflate, fiatmoney always has.
Second, fiat money is theft.
Third, fiat money enables almost limitless fractional reserve banking, which is also theft.
Fourth, gold does not fluctuate wildly against the dollar, the dollar does against gold, and rightly so, because it is backed by nothing but by the will of the American people to suffer, which must end at some point.
Fifth, you do not get to decide what has “intrinsic” value. If people are willing to pay for it, for what reasons ever, it has value. They seem to have been ready to work for gold for 5000-6000 years now, I think gold has proven to be a relative reliable means of pay, especially if you want to leave a jurisdiction in a hurry.
[quote]orion wrote:
Fourth, gold does not fluctuate wildly against the euro, the euro does against gold, and rightly so, because it is backed by nothing but by the will of the EU people to suffer, which must end at some point.
[/quote]
There. Fixed it for you.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
orion wrote:
Fourth, gold does not fluctuate wildly against the euro, the euro does against gold, and rightly so, because it is backed by nothing but by the will of the EU people to suffer, which must end at some point.
There. Fixed it for you. [/quote]
Of course this is also true for the EUR.
However, our central bank cannot simply print money when it wants to and we never held the status of a reserve currency.
The EUR also only exists for a few years, there was no time for us to become fat and complacent.
Our welfare state will finish us off sooner or later, but what does that help you now? In fact, if there is one country that should pray for European economic stability right now it is the US-
I think the next sure thing is canned water,breed-able women and bullets.
Gold will have little value during total world anarchy.
China financing our national debt is the next bubble to burst.
How about corporate bonds? I’m getting real itchy to make that trade.
Hope everyone rebalanced their portfolios and took some tax losses.
Happy New Year.
[quote]pittbulll wrote:
It is long but in my opinion it is good
http://video.google.com:80/videoplay?docid=5232639329002339531
And if any one does watch it I would be curious of what they think I hope this is not a hijack it seem right up the same alley[/quote]
It is accurate, and the U.S is in a lot of trouble. A lot of places are in trouble but U.S I think is in the worst trouble.
I’d say only 2% of people will really grasp the importance of these points. I’d say only 10% will have a bit of a grasp. I’d say possibly 30% will have some inkling that something stinks.
I think generally T-Nation readers are smarter than average so most will have some inkling that something stinks.
But there are others with no idea and no understanding, who have lived in an artificial boomtime and would rather stick their head in the sand and borrow their way out of this - as if that was possible.
The situation will fix itself with the collapse of the dollar.
Individuals should convert savings to a non dollar vehicle like gold. The comedy of that is, even though the country collapses around you, your relative wealth grows. Oh wait - problem with that is, people don’t have savings, they have mortgages.
I liked that programs’ focus on how unconstitutional it all is, especially the idea that inflation is taxation of future generations - who do not have representation/a vote/ a say today. What was that again … no taxation without representation? Well it is happening. Hidden taxation of inflation. You are the most overtaxed country and don’t realise it - yet.
I don’t mean to upset people but the lesson must be learnt.