[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
However I won’t be a hypocrite. We need Israel there though I have no illusions about their motivations with us which are entirely their own.[/quote]
That’s interesting. Why exactly do you think you “need Israel there”? And since when do you think that “need” arose?
A 100,000 Iranians were killed by Iraqi “unconventional weaponry”. They took the hit and didn’t escalate despite the fact that they had biological and chemical capabilities themselves. It is worth noting that the countries that were backing Iraq during that period are the the very same ones waiving their arms in outrage over Iran’s civil nuclear program.
Iran has a top-grade pharmaceutical industry, that it uses locally as well as for exporting. It can already produce WMDs on a massive scale, and the range of their missiles, while far from state-of-the-art, is nothing to be sneezed at. Everybody knows that.
The issue here, as all MAD scenarios, has to do with perceived power and spheres of influence. Should Iran acquire nukes, it’ll adopt a policy of deliberate ambiguity (made famous by a country nearby). This will make them a power to be reckoned with, and that’s something upsetting the big dogs.
[quote]I also think you underestimate their strength. They have state of the art hardware (as well we should know) and unwavering commitment to go along with possibly the world’s finest intelligence operation.
Don’t mistake a sub maximal effort with Hezballah in Tel Aviv with what would happen in an actual war. Not only that they would have our backing and Israel has strong support here. The resources would be made available.
I’m not calling this inevitable, but a credible threat from a nuclear Iran will not be sat on for very long. Only if the program were actually stopped or they were convinced that the leadership weren’t going to use it militarily would that be ultimately averted. [/quote]
At this point, I believe it is very very unlikely. Israelis will pay dearly if they were to attack Iran. I’m not underestimating the power of T’sahal or anything. I firmly believe that, should push come to shove, they could take Tehran down in a snap and have enough firepower left to kick the ass of a few dozen other countries. But making a decision about engaging a decent country upfront would be the death of any politician who makes that decision. For the simple reason that Hezbollah and Hamas will go all-in at that point, killing a shitload of Israelis. To make a little analogy, imagine if Iraq was geographically close to the US, and Iraqis managed to kill a million American civilians after the US bombed and invaded Baghdad.
Ultimately, the aggressor would evidently be Tel-Aviv and I’m not sure the population will not riot at that point.
What is sad, is that the more confrontational and terroristic the West’s rhetoric gets, the more the progressives put their agenda on hold to rally around the current regime.
Somehow, feminism doesn’t seem a priority when your country is about to be attack by a foreign military force.