T Nation

Nate Silver

Although Obama will get the attention, the real superstar is Silver. His math was right on the money. Next go-round you will not be listening to the opinions of Dick Morris, Karl Rove and their ilk. Instead, all of the networks (and websites) will have people like Silver who are data-driven rather than totally opinion-based.

jnd

Not sure if you caught it in the other thread but just in case you didn’t:

I owe you and Nate a hat tip. You’re both right and I was wrong.

[quote]jnd wrote:
Although Obama will get the attention, the real superstar is Silver. His math was right on the money. Next go-round you will not be listening to the opinions of Dick Morris, Karl Rove and their ilk. Instead, all of the networks (and websites) will have people like Silver who are data-driven rather than totally opinion-based.

jnd[/quote]

If I’m not mistaken, he was 50/50? That’s incredibly impressive in this particular election. He was a pretty divisive topic in the months leading up to the contest, and frankly the mere mention of his name drew a lot of vitriol from people around here. (Not looking to see anymore posters eat crow, though. Everybody’s seen the numbers and most of you guys have already come out and admitted that Silver called it. Today’s not the day to kick people when they’re down.)

It will be very interesting to see how Silver is treated in the coming years. Two elections don’t make a sure thing, but his credibility gains by a leap and a bound with every swing state called correctly. The most interesting question, for me, is this: could he build such a following in the future–given continued success, which is not guaranteed–that his prognostications themselves become substantial factors in the campaign they’re supposed to be merely observing? And if so, will this kind of power prove to be a temptation for someone who is openly partisan?

Votamaic for the win.

Silver and Wang close seconds.

But really, the polls called it correctly.

Honorable mention to electionprojection. (conservative, Christian, Romney supporter)

[quote]smh23 wrote:
And if so, will this kind of power prove to be a temptation for someone who is openly partisan?[/quote]

Rassmussen was on the radio this morning talking about the death of the telephone poll.

To directly address your question though: it depends on the media. Polling suggests people, other than the left, are becoming more and more critical of the main stream media. If that trend continues, Silver will have to work very hard to not be broadly labled a hack.

But, that being said, a hack with good numbers still has good numbers. So, people can read his blog and look at the numbers, or just look at the numbers.

There is the whole “self fufilling prophecy” aspect as well.

He’ll never get the apologies he deserves after the Republicans’ pathetic attempts to put him down.

He called EVERY state right. AMAZING.

I kept looking at his map as the results came in. After PA came in, I knew Pres Obama had it.

He said recently on an msnbc interview that he takes the data from the state polls and not the national polls since they are more accurate.

And let’s be reminded that Silver developed PECOTA for the MLB association, a system that projects future performances for hitters and pitchers in the league using very complex mathematical equations. He got famous for getting it right in 2008, and will stay famous and rich because of his near-perfect prediction this time around.

Men lie, women lie…NUMBERS don’t!

The money is not in politics and I predict he will quickly be hired full time by a professional sports team with a contract that involves not involving himself in political campaigns anymore.

[quote]nickj_777 wrote:
The money is not in politics and I predict he will quickly be hired full time by a professional sports team with a contract that involves not involving himself in political campaigns anymore. [/quote]

He started his career doing baseball statistics.

Even though I wasn’t actively rooting for either candidate I’ve “known” (on the internet) Nate since he used to post at an old poker forum I frequented. Republicans wanted to talk all about how flawed his model was (which was dang near perfect in 2008) because it wasn’t showing the results they wanted. So they came up with a lot of different reasons for why it was off. Betting against Nate when it comes to politics is looking like a losing battle.

[quote]DarkNinjaa wrote:
He’ll never get the apologies he deserves after the Republicans’ pathetic attempts to put him down.

[/quote]

You know, in the real world, there were a lot of non-republicans giving him raised eye brows too.

Lets not be concerned with that though, hating republicans is so vouge.

You nailed it and Silver really nailed it jnd. I don’t wish I’d listened to you guys, I wish you’d both been wrong. (’_^)

But I will give credit where credit is due, and you deserve it.

Silver is still an asshole, though. (^^)v

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]DarkNinjaa wrote:
He’ll never get the apologies he deserves after the Republicans’ pathetic attempts to put him down.

[/quote]

Lets not be concerned with that though, hating republicans is so vouge. [/quote]

You’re right :slight_smile:

It’s time to partyyyyy!!!

[quote]Cortes wrote:

Silver is still an asshole, though. (^^)v[/quote]

Hahaha!!

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Not sure if you caught it in the other thread but just in case you didn’t:

I owe you and Nate a hat tip. You’re both right and I was wrong.[/quote]

CB-

This is classy. No gloating here. I am just glad that the numbers didn’t betray what I was seeing. My argument was never about R’s or D’s, but about how so many different polls were tilting towards Obama for the entire cycle.

I guess that I am lucky because I knew that the outcome of last night would not change my day-to-day at all. I was still going to go to the gym in the am, work, have dinner with my family- just with fewer robo-calls.

If anything, this cycle suggests that the big polling companies (Gallup and Rasmussen, in particular) better adapt or they will be left behind by the statisticians.

Gallup does such great work on their well-being data, I never understand how they had Romney up by so much- when others did not.

Onward and upward.

jnd

[quote]Cortes wrote:
You nailed it and Silver really nailed it jnd. I don’t wish I’d listened to you guys, I wish you’d both been wrong. (’_^)

But I will give credit where credit is due, and you deserve it.

Silver is still an asshole, though. (^^)v[/quote]

I didn’t view him as an asshole when he used to post on that poker forum, but that was before money and fame. I don’t really care if he is an asshole or not, but until he’s proven wrong significantly in presidential elections he will remain my go to for what’s really happening. It was another very impressive night for his model and the people who thought Romney was going to carry 315 EV’s could not have been more off.

I have read several times that his blog - of which I was a faithful reader - was a “human xanax pill” for Democrats.

Having had little experience with Silver in the past I had no idea whether or not he’d be right, but he turned out to be dead on. Thank god.

http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/trends.html

http://www.xkcd.org/1131/

About to be a rich bastard.

Glad you began this thread.

Smh you were spot on regarding Silver!