T Nation

My Gambling/Money Making Theory

[quote]P-Ha wrote:
infamous wrote:
This is a common flaw in thinking.
It is explained really good on this site http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

There is definately a betting system that works.

The author of that analysis fails to account for comped drinks.

If you make minimum bets on the pass line and order double shots of something every time the waitress comes by, you easily make up the .5% disadvantage to the house in liquor.

Roulette moves to fast for this to work, but a pass line bet in craps can easily take a few minutes to fall.

It is not really gambling. It is actually standing in a circle watching other people gamble while you get drunk on the casinos liquor.[/quote]

If that’s the case, why even gamble? You’re not going to make a lot of money and you could have just spent the money you lost on a bottle of JD.

[quote]P-Ha wrote:
Cockney Blue wrote:
P-Ha wrote:
infamous wrote:
This is a common flaw in thinking.
It is explained really good on this site http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

There is definately a betting system that works.

The author of that analysis fails to account for comped drinks.

If you make minimum bets on the pass line and order double shots of something every time the waitress comes by, you easily make up the .5% disadvantage to the house in liquor.

Roulette moves to fast for this to work, but a pass line bet in craps can easily take a few minutes to fall.

It is not really gambling. It is actually standing in a circle watching other people gamble while you get drunk on the casinos liquor.

But the waitresses get good at circling past the guys who are betting and taking longer to get to the guys betting minimums, they know where the tips are!

Very true.

That is why for the strategy to work best, you need to go to the casino with someone who gambles like an idiot. They will attract the wairess, at which point you can pounce on a double shot of yeager.

You can also find a table with lots of action already and then jump in.

A busy craps table might have 8 to 10 players at a time, there is bound to be someone worth the waitresse’s time.

You just have to be oppurtunistic.
[/quote]

Will have to remember that for next time I am dragged to a casino (not a big casino fan)

[quote]malonetd wrote:
Uncle Gabby wrote:
If you think you will ever make money from gambling you are an idiot. Gambling is an expensive form of entertainment. I’ve occaisionally won money in poker games, or at the race track, but I only go to have a good time, and only take as much money as I can afford to lose. I used to work in an off-track betting parlor. I saw a lot of people come through, and those who expect to make money usually end up miserable.

It is very possible to make money off poker. The problem is that most people don’t have the patience, the math skills, and/or the ability to pay detailed attention to other players.[/quote]

Yeah, if you take the time to learn the game you can come out ahead as long as you play against people of lower experience and skill than yourself. There are huge numbers of young, college age guys out there who watch a little texas hold’em on ESPN and think they are the shit. Skilled poker players use these guys as ATMs. Very very few people will ever make poker a reliable source of income. Better just to have fun.

[quote]JLu wrote:
Anytime you think you can win at gambling just remember this; casinos, companies that manufacture slot machines, anything that involves probability basically will have HIGHLY educated mathematicians and statistics people who are far more intelligent than you, and who’s job it is to make sure the house is the one making money, not you.[/quote]

Reminds me that casinos are not built on the back of winners.

[quote]LankyMofo wrote:
P-Ha wrote:
infamous wrote:
This is a common flaw in thinking.
It is explained really good on this site http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

There is definately a betting system that works.

The author of that analysis fails to account for comped drinks.

If you make minimum bets on the pass line and order double shots of something every time the waitress comes by, you easily make up the .5% disadvantage to the house in liquor.

Roulette moves to fast for this to work, but a pass line bet in craps can easily take a few minutes to fall.

It is not really gambling. It is actually standing in a circle watching other people gamble while you get drunk on the casinos liquor.

If that’s the case, why even gamble? You’re not going to make a lot of money and you could have just spent the money you lost on a bottle of JD.[/quote]

When played correctly (pass line bets) the odds are only slightly in the houses favor in craps. If you find a casino with low minimum bets ($3-5). You can basically bet a coin flip for hours, while they bring you booze.

Some rolls you will lose, some you will win. Odds are, you will come out just below even in the end, which will be made up with all the drinks.

In the meantime you get entertained by all the other people winning, losing, cussing, yelling, etc…

The only game with anywhere close to decent odds in a casino is blackjack. If you know how to play basic strategic blackjack perfectly, the house only has a 2.5% better chance than you do. The odds fluctuate a tiny, tiny bit depending on whether or not the casinos let you double down on a split hand, split a hand that’s already beeb split, or if the dealer has to hit on soft seventeen or not.

Even if you can count cards flawlessly, unless you can ALSO play flawless strategic blackjack, you don’t improve your chances very much. But if you CAN count cards and play with perfect strategy, then you can tilt the odds in your favor and have as much as a .5% advantage over the house.

But counting cards without being noticed usually requires two people, like in “21”. I know how to count cards pretty well, but it’s very tough to do that and play perfect strategy at a multiple deck table, which is where the real high deck counts in your favor are most likely to occur. I’ve actually made a lot of money at dogshit Indian casinos before since they’re always a lot slower to spot a counter there, but even then I eventually drew a crowd by betting the table maximum for several hands at a time.

If you want a foolproof way to make money at a casino, there isn’t one. But the best chances you have are by counting cards while playing with flawless strategy at blackjack. If you Wikipedia Blackjack, there’s a chart that shows you every possible situation you can face in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer’s faceup card. It shows you when the best odds are to split, double down, hit or stay.

You could make the minimum pass line bet in craps, but are you there to WIN or not lose? At blackjack, you can have a decent chance at pulling in some serious cash if you get on a roll.

[quote]artw wrote:
The only game with anywhere close to decent odds in a casino is blackjack. If you know how to play basic strategic blackjack perfectly, the house only has a .5% better chance than you do, a virtual coinflip. The odds fluctuate a tiny, tiny bit depending on whether or not the casinos let you double down on a split hand, split a hand that’s already beeb split, or if the dealer has to hit on soft seventeen or not.

Even if you can count cards flawlessly, unless you can ALSO play flawless strategic blackjack, you don’t improve your chances very much. But if you CAN count cards and play with perfect strategy, then you can tilt the odds in your favor and have as much as a 2.5% advantage over the house.

But counting cards without being noticed usually requires two people, like in “21”. I know how to count cards pretty well, but it’s very tough to do that and play perfect strategy at a multiple deck table, which is where the real high deck counts in your favor are most likely to occur. I’ve actually made a lot of money at dogshit Indian casinos before since they’re always a lot slower to spot a counter there, but even then I eventually drew a crowd by betting the table maximum for several hands at a time.

If you want a foolproof way to make money at a casino, there isn’t one. But the best chances you have are by counting cards while playing with flawless strategy at blackjack. If you Wikipedia Blackjack, there’s a chart that shows you every possible situation you can face in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer’s faceup card. It shows you when the best odds are to split, double down, hit or stay.[/quote]

Counting cards is not illegal. You watch too many movies. Certain betting patterns may draw their attention, at max table stakes, but you aint getting thrown out. For every guy that can really count successfully and beat the house, there are 100s that think they can, and lose.

Your very best odds in the casino are poker. It’s not a house game. You only pay rake.

[quote]TheBodyGuard wrote:
artw wrote:
The only game with anywhere close to decent odds in a casino is blackjack. If you know how to play basic strategic blackjack perfectly, the house only has a .5% better chance than you do, a virtual coinflip. The odds fluctuate a tiny, tiny bit depending on whether or not the casinos let you double down on a split hand, split a hand that’s already beeb split, or if the dealer has to hit on soft seventeen or not.

Even if you can count cards flawlessly, unless you can ALSO play flawless strategic blackjack, you don’t improve your chances very much. But if you CAN count cards and play with perfect strategy, then you can tilt the odds in your favor and have as much as a 2.5% advantage over the house.

But counting cards without being noticed usually requires two people, like in “21”. I know how to count cards pretty well, but it’s very tough to do that and play perfect strategy at a multiple deck table, which is where the real high deck counts in your favor are most likely to occur. I’ve actually made a lot of money at dogshit Indian casinos before since they’re always a lot slower to spot a counter there, but even then I eventually drew a crowd by betting the table maximum for several hands at a time.

If you want a foolproof way to make money at a casino, there isn’t one. But the best chances you have are by counting cards while playing with flawless strategy at blackjack. If you Wikipedia Blackjack, there’s a chart that shows you every possible situation you can face in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer’s faceup card. It shows you when the best odds are to split, double down, hit or stay.

Counting cards is not illegal. You watch too many movies. Certain betting patterns may draw their attention, at max table stakes, but you aint getting thrown out. For every guy that can really count successfully and beat the house, there are 100s that think they can, and lose.

Your very best odds in the casino are poker. It’s not a house game. You only pay rake. [/quote]

You’re right, counting cards is not illegal. That being said, I have been thrown out of a casino twice specifically for counting cards, and I have also been told that I am welcome to play any game BUT blackjack, also for counting cards. It’s called reserving the right to refuse service. The Peppermill and the Atlantis in Reno have booted me.

But you don’t know a fucking thing apparently. Since you play poker against random people and not the house, there are no chances of beating the casino. Your odds are often 50/50 against a random hand, but they can also be 95/1. If you play blackjack correctly and count cards, your odds over the course of six full decks is 50.5/49.50 no matter what. You can never say that about poker.

Technically if you want a “foolproof” way of making money you would play some of the progressive video poker machines that pay up to 100.8%. But that’s got to be boring as shit.

I highly doubt artw has ever actually invested a serious bankroll in a casino, but blackjack is beatable. But the bankroll you need these days is pointless. Unless you are taking an incredibly high risk of ruin, you need a bankroll in the range of 50k to have an expected return better than you could make working at the mall.

I think it’s funny that there are random people out there who are under the impression that there are undiscovered ways to beat casinos.

My guess is that gambling is a big enough activity, and these games have been around long enough, that if there WAS a plausible way to make bank, someone would have thought of it already.

[quote]Uncle Gabby wrote:
If you think you will ever make money from gambling you are an idiot. Gambling is an expensive form of entertainment. I’ve occaisionally won money in poker games, or at the race track, but I only go to have a good time, and only take as much money as I can afford to lose. I used to work in an off-track betting parlor. I saw a lot of people come through, and those who expect to make money usually end up miserable.[/quote]

You can make money off of gambling, however it is a slow tedious grind. To the OP, the method you described is called the Nightengale Method. It is a very bad, useless theory of gambling. This one fact that follows this sentence is why it is a bad way of gambling: A spin on a Roulette Table has no affect on the next one.

So, while you keep doubling the bet (if you were to bet continuously on black and not follow the trend) you could possibly go (as high as I have seen it) 26 times which you would have to bet $6,710,886,400,000 just to win 100,000 dollars. Let’s say you lost eight times which if you have been in a casino you would know on a roulette table that is very possible, that is 25,600,000 to win 100,000 dollars. This is not very smart, at all.

No, if you really wanted to gamble, possibly win some money. Scout tables, look for a table that has trends going (it is legal) when you get onto the table, bet the trend. Bet above the minimum if the table minimum is 10 dollars bet 15. If you win, regress it to 10 dollars. This way if you lose you have a five dollar profit. And if you lose, bet fifteen again. If you win, with ten, you can either double and keep the five dollar profit, or you can split the money won put half of it in the profit stack. Keep doing that and when another trend pops up bet fifteen regress and progress.

Betting with regression etc.

15
10
20
40
80
160
320

Or

15
10
15
20
25
30
35

Switch when you lose and follow the other trend, if the table is choppy get off that shit.

[quote]Uncle Gabby wrote:
malonetd wrote:
Uncle Gabby wrote:
If you think you will ever make money from gambling you are an idiot. Gambling is an expensive form of entertainment. I’ve occaisionally won money in poker games, or at the race track, but I only go to have a good time, and only take as much money as I can afford to lose. I used to work in an off-track betting parlor. I saw a lot of people come through, and those who expect to make money usually end up miserable.

It is very possible to make money off poker. The problem is that most people don’t have the patience, the math skills, and/or the ability to pay detailed attention to other players.

Yeah, if you take the time to learn the game you can come out ahead as long as you play against people of lower experience and skill than yourself. There are huge numbers of young, college age guys out there who watch a little texas hold’em on ESPN and think they are the shit. Skilled poker players use these guys as ATMs. Very very few people will ever make poker a reliable source of income. Better just to have fun.[/quote]

See, I wasn’t even talking about a reliable source of income. I just meant a way to make some extra money. I play just to make a little cash. I generally make between $100 and $200 a month and that’s a far cry from anything I can live off. And, of course, some months I make less than $20 or even lose money. I’m not even thinking about serious money. To me, it’s entertainment with a small bonus.

Another thing to take into consideration is the size of the players.

Take this for example. Two individuals are playing a game where they flip a coin and if it is heads player A wins, if it is tails player B wins.

If both players start with equal money, such that both have 50 and the first to have the whole lot (100) wins the game. Both players will have equal odds of winning.

however give player A 75 and player B 25, player A now has a much greater statistical chance of winning over player B.

you now have in a sense you vs the casino, $10 000 Vs $1000000000000 or whatever number the casino is worth. Even more so when you take into account the fact that the house has better odds, you lose more often on average and there is nothing you can do about that. end of the day you will probably be down money making double sized bets just to get your money back. On top of this when you are down to the $10 000 bet that gets your money back, it isnt the 0.05% odds anymore, its straight back to a 1/2 (or .474 whatever was posted) and you are statisically going to lose. This is a pretty known strategy and in finance its not as fool proof as you may think.

[quote]Brother Chris wrote:
No, if you really wanted to gamble, possibly win some money. Scout tables, look for a table that has trends going (it is legal) when you get onto the table, bet the trend. Bet above the minimum if the table minimum is 10 dollars bet 15. If you win, regress it to 10 dollars. This way if you lose you have a five dollar profit. And if you lose, bet fifteen again. If you win, with ten, you can either double and keep the five dollar profit, or you can split the money won put half of it in the profit stack. Keep doing that and when another trend pops up bet fifteen regress and progress.[/quote]

False.

All rolls are independent of each other; previous trends do not effect the future.

Betting systems do nothing to change your odds.

[quote]Randiago wrote:
Another thing to take into consideration is the size of the players.

Take this for example. Two individuals are playing a game where they flip a coin and if it is heads player A wins, if it is tails player B wins.

If both players start with equal money, such that both have 50 and the first to have the whole lot (100) wins the game. Both players will have equal odds of winning.

however give player A 75 and player B 25, player A now has a much greater statistical chance of winning over player B.

you now have in a sense you vs the casino, $10 000 Vs $1000000000000 or whatever number the casino is worth. Even more so when you take into account the fact that the house has better odds, you lose more often on average and there is nothing you can do about that. end of the day you will probably be down money making double sized bets just to get your money back. On top of this when you are down to the $10 000 bet that gets your money back, it isnt the 0.05% odds anymore, its straight back to a 1/2 (or .474 whatever was posted) and you are statisically going to lose. This is a pretty known strategy and in finance its not as fool proof as you may think.[/quote]

If the casino has 100 billions dollars and I have 100, I have exactly the same odds of winning as I do if I have 100 billion, also. I can’t think of any game in the casino where the point is to see who can run out of money last.

There are 2 games that can be very favorable to the player and not the house. Roulette (dbl or single, single being better) and Texas Holdem against the HOUSE.

The winning strategy for roulette is pretty simple. Assume a minimum bet of $15 (this is the weekend and nighttime minimum in AC) Bet 5 straight numbers, means any 5 individual numbers, not 5 on one, or 3 on 1 and 2 on another, it must be five with a dollar each.

Now split the other 10 dollars for your bet on 20 different numbers (numbers you have not already bet on) You will always have enough time to do this during betting, because the numbers you pick don’t make a damn bit of difference, so don’t get caught up on birthdays and shit, just drop the chips where you feel like it.

Now look at what you’ve done here. By splitting it up this way you’ve covered 25 different numbers…the entire board only holds 37 (36 on single 0) which gives you a coverage of a hair over 67%.

Your odds of hitting are already to your advantage, and a big one. Statistically speaking you will hit 2 of every 3 spins. (From my own personal experience this does generally work out to be the case, of course you have bad runs and good runs. A few weeks ago I played for nearly 5 hours on the same $60 initial buy in and hit splits every spin for 11 spins in a row)

For those who don’t know, hitting a straight number in roulette pays 35:1, and a 2 number split pays 17:1. So by betting the 15 (or 11-13 if the minimum is 10) you will slowly grind a profit 2 dollars at a time with the occasional straight number hit.

The house obviously regains some of their advantage with the payout odds by not paying 37:1 and 19:1 but you still maintain a big advantage. I love playing this way as it’s low risk, care free, and it lasts a long time.

I see people come and drop 10-15 dollars on a couple of numbers, or, even worse, on the outside and being busted in 15 minutes while i quietly pocket $300-400 in a night.

[quote]artw wrote:
TheBodyGuard wrote:
artw wrote:
The only game with anywhere close to decent odds in a casino is blackjack. If you know how to play basic strategic blackjack perfectly, the house only has a .5% better chance than you do, a virtual coinflip. The odds fluctuate a tiny, tiny bit depending on whether or not the casinos let you double down on a split hand, split a hand that’s already beeb split, or if the dealer has to hit on soft seventeen or not.

Even if you can count cards flawlessly, unless you can ALSO play flawless strategic blackjack, you don’t improve your chances very much. But if you CAN count cards and play with perfect strategy, then you can tilt the odds in your favor and have as much as a 2.5% advantage over the house.

But counting cards without being noticed usually requires two people, like in “21”. I know how to count cards pretty well, but it’s very tough to do that and play perfect strategy at a multiple deck table, which is where the real high deck counts in your favor are most likely to occur. I’ve actually made a lot of money at dogshit Indian casinos before since they’re always a lot slower to spot a counter there, but even then I eventually drew a crowd by betting the table maximum for several hands at a time.

If you want a foolproof way to make money at a casino, there isn’t one. But the best chances you have are by counting cards while playing with flawless strategy at blackjack. If you Wikipedia Blackjack, there’s a chart that shows you every possible situation you can face in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer’s faceup card. It shows you when the best odds are to split, double down, hit or stay.

Counting cards is not illegal. You watch too many movies. Certain betting patterns may draw their attention, at max table stakes, but you aint getting thrown out. For every guy that can really count successfully and beat the house, there are 100s that think they can, and lose.

Your very best odds in the casino are poker. It’s not a house game. You only pay rake.

You’re right, counting cards is not illegal. That being said, I have been thrown out of a casino twice specifically for counting cards, and I have also been told that I am welcome to play any game BUT blackjack, also for counting cards. It’s called reserving the right to refuse service. The Peppermill and the Atlantis in Reno have booted me.

But you don’t know a fucking thing apparently. Since you play poker against random people and not the house, there are no chances of beating the casino. Your odds are often 50/50 against a random hand, but they can also be 95/1. If you play blackjack correctly and count cards, your odds over the course of six full decks is 50.5/49.50 no matter what. You can never say that about poker.[/quote]

I’ve been in the casinos before I was old enough to be there legally. Blackjack was my first game, I was capable of playing perfect strategy and counting a little. So, apparently, you don’t know a fucking thing. Tell me, are you retired with all your blackjack winnings? And if you a poker player is “50/50 against a random hand, but they can also be 95/1. If you play blackjack correctly and count cards, your odds over the course of six full decks is 50.5/49.50 no matter what. You can never say that about poker” - can you explain to me those that make a living playing it? No, forget them. Can you explain that with + return over a large sample? And the return is larger than a mere point genius.

Texas Holdem against the the HOUSE has technically got a house advantage, however, the rules allow for very easy gains if you know pot odds for poker hands. My first time playing was about 3 months ago and it took a little getting used to, but I was able to make about $120 off a $50 buy in in about an hour.

[quote]malonetd wrote:
Uncle Gabby wrote:
malonetd wrote:
Uncle Gabby wrote:
If you think you will ever make money from gambling you are an idiot. Gambling is an expensive form of entertainment. I’ve occaisionally won money in poker games, or at the race track, but I only go to have a good time, and only take as much money as I can afford to lose. I used to work in an off-track betting parlor. I saw a lot of people come through, and those who expect to make money usually end up miserable.

It is very possible to make money off poker. The problem is that most people don’t have the patience, the math skills, and/or the ability to pay detailed attention to other players.

Yeah, if you take the time to learn the game you can come out ahead as long as you play against people of lower experience and skill than yourself. There are huge numbers of young, college age guys out there who watch a little texas hold’em on ESPN and think they are the shit. Skilled poker players use these guys as ATMs. Very very few people will ever make poker a reliable source of income. Better just to have fun.

See, I wasn’t even talking about a reliable source of income. I just meant a way to make some extra money. I play just to make a little cash. I generally make between $100 and $200 a month and that’s a far cry from anything I can live off. And, of course, some months I make less than $20 or even lose money. I’m not even thinking about serious money. To me, it’s entertainment with a small bonus.[/quote]

I used to work with a woman who raked in good money playing online poker for about a year until they banned the use of credit cards with online betting. While times were good she cleaned out the college boys and regularly got checks for several grand. There were loopholes that allowed her to continue to play for real money even after the ban, but when the college boys could no longer use mommy and daddy’s credit card to play, they got discouraged and the easy money dried up.

Funny thing is, she used the extra money to finance trips to Atlantic city.

[quote]Jeffe wrote:
Randiago wrote:
Another thing to take into consideration is the size of the players.

Take this for example. Two individuals are playing a game where they flip a coin and if it is heads player A wins, if it is tails player B wins.

If both players start with equal money, such that both have 50 and the first to have the whole lot (100) wins the game. Both players will have equal odds of winning.

however give player A 75 and player B 25, player A now has a much greater statistical chance of winning over player B.

you now have in a sense you vs the casino, $10 000 Vs $1000000000000 or whatever number the casino is worth. Even more so when you take into account the fact that the house has better odds, you lose more often on average and there is nothing you can do about that. end of the day you will probably be down money making double sized bets just to get your money back. On top of this when you are down to the $10 000 bet that gets your money back, it isnt the 0.05% odds anymore, its straight back to a 1/2 (or .474 whatever was posted) and you are statisically going to lose. This is a pretty known strategy and in finance its not as fool proof as you may think.

If the casino has 100 billions dollars and I have 100, I have exactly the same odds of winning as I do if I have 100 billion, also. I can’t think of any game in the casino where the point is to see who can run out of money last.

There are 2 games that can be very favorable to the player and not the house. Roulette (dbl or single, single being better) and Texas Holdem against the HOUSE.

The winning strategy for roulette is pretty simple. Assume a minimum bet of $15 (this is the weekend and nighttime minimum in AC) Bet 5 straight numbers, means any 5 individual numbers, not 5 on one, or 3 on 1 and 2 on another, it must be five with a dollar each.

Now split the other 10 dollars for your bet on 20 different numbers (numbers you have not already bet on) You will always have enough time to do this during betting, because the numbers you pick don’t make a damn bit of difference, so don’t get caught up on birthdays and shit, just drop the chips where you feel like it.

Now look at what you’ve done here. By splitting it up this way you’ve covered 25 different numbers…the entire board only holds 37 (36 on single 0) which gives you a coverage of a hair over 67%.

Your odds of hitting are already to your advantage, and a big one. Statistically speaking you will hit 2 of every 3 spins. (From my own personal experience this does generally work out to be the case, of course you have bad runs and good runs. A few weeks ago I played for nearly 5 hours on the same $60 initial buy in and hit splits every spin for 11 spins in a row)

For those who don’t know, hitting a straight number in roulette pays 35:1, and a 2 number split pays 17:1. So by betting the 15 (or 11-13 if the minimum is 10) you will slowly grind a profit 2 dollars at a time with the occasional straight number hit.

The house obviously regains some of their advantage with the payout odds by not paying 37:1 and 19:1 but you still maintain a big advantage. I love playing this way as it’s low risk, care free, and it lasts a long time.

I see people come and drop 10-15 dollars on a couple of numbers, or, even worse, on the outside and being busted in 15 minutes while i quietly pocket $300-400 in a night.[/quote]

I can’t be arsed to sit and work through the odds but I know you are wrong. The way I know you are wrong is that if this gave you a statistical edge, the casino would change the table in some way.

Without counting cards, Baccarat is usually the best odds you can get in a casino. With counting cards Blackjack beats it but as has been mentioned, your betting patterns have to vary with the count and this gives you away. If you are winning big, you will be ushured to a different game.

[quote]TheBodyGuard wrote:
artw wrote:
TheBodyGuard wrote:
artw wrote:
The only game with anywhere close to decent odds in a casino is blackjack. If you know how to play basic strategic blackjack perfectly, the house only has a .5% better chance than you do, a virtual coinflip. The odds fluctuate a tiny, tiny bit depending on whether or not the casinos let you double down on a split hand, split a hand that’s already beeb split, or if the dealer has to hit on soft seventeen or not.

Even if you can count cards flawlessly, unless you can ALSO play flawless strategic blackjack, you don’t improve your chances very much. But if you CAN count cards and play with perfect strategy, then you can tilt the odds in your favor and have as much as a 2.5% advantage over the house.

But counting cards without being noticed usually requires two people, like in “21”. I know how to count cards pretty well, but it’s very tough to do that and play perfect strategy at a multiple deck table, which is where the real high deck counts in your favor are most likely to occur. I’ve actually made a lot of money at dogshit Indian casinos before since they’re always a lot slower to spot a counter there, but even then I eventually drew a crowd by betting the table maximum for several hands at a time.

If you want a foolproof way to make money at a casino, there isn’t one. But the best chances you have are by counting cards while playing with flawless strategy at blackjack. If you Wikipedia Blackjack, there’s a chart that shows you every possible situation you can face in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer’s faceup card. It shows you when the best odds are to split, double down, hit or stay.

Counting cards is not illegal. You watch too many movies. Certain betting patterns may draw their attention, at max table stakes, but you aint getting thrown out. For every guy that can really count successfully and beat the house, there are 100s that think they can, and lose.

Your very best odds in the casino are poker. It’s not a house game. You only pay rake.

You’re right, counting cards is not illegal. That being said, I have been thrown out of a casino twice specifically for counting cards, and I have also been told that I am welcome to play any game BUT blackjack, also for counting cards. It’s called reserving the right to refuse service. The Peppermill and the Atlantis in Reno have booted me.

But you don’t know a fucking thing apparently. Since you play poker against random people and not the house, there are no chances of beating the casino. Your odds are often 50/50 against a random hand, but they can also be 95/1. If you play blackjack correctly and count cards, your odds over the course of six full decks is 50.5/49.50 no matter what. You can never say that about poker.

I’ve been in the casinos before I was old enough to be there legally. Blackjack was my first game, I was capable of playing perfect strategy and counting a little. So, apparently, you don’t know a fucking thing. Tell me, are you retired with all your blackjack winnings? And if you a poker player is “50/50 against a random hand, but they can also be 95/1. If you play blackjack correctly and count cards, your odds over the course of six full decks is 50.5/49.50 no matter what. You can never say that about poker” - can you explain to me those that make a living playing it? No, forget them. Can you explain that with + return over a large sample? And the return is larger than a mere point genius.

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It takes a ton of skill to be able to make money playing poker and despite popular opinion, only a small handful of poker pros are truly successful. It also takes years and years and perhaps thousands of dollars lost before someone develops the skill to win consistently at poker. And then of course, there is the skill of the other players to take into account as well. In blackjack, there is little skill involved; it’s a very mechanical game and the only skill is really just memorizing the different situations to hit, fold, split or double down in along with learning how to count cards. The house has no “skill” in blackjack and once you have nailed the strategy and counting methods down pat, there are zero outside factors that can influence your success.

But in poker, there are a limitless amount of circumstances that can effect the outcome of a hand, which is why it is not uncommon to see players with the best hands fold and players with horrible hands win. If your hand is played against a full table (eight other players) and they all see the flop (which is rare, but even if only half of them do, which is common in a cash game) you rarely have better than a 50/50 chance of winning, even with a huge hand. Anybody who knows how to count cards and play perfect strategy can walk into a casino with a virtual coinflip’s chance of winning, whereas only a small handful of poker players can walk into a casino and say that, and the list is virtually non-existent if that poker player is playing with other top pros. If you’re not a legit poker pro living in Vegas and doing nothing but playing poker for a source of income, you’d be a fool to think you’re going to make money over the long haul; if you really were that good, you’d be a pro. You’re exactly who the pros want to play with.

As for my bankroll, I actually did have a pretty decent-sized one for a while (roughly25K) but I blew it all gambling on sports. I used to have a pretty serious gambling problem so I rarely gamble at all anymore, but I live about 30 minutes from a couple of Indian casinos and I’ll go there a couple times a year and play blackjack at a 5-100$ table and make a couple hundred bucks more often than not. I consider myself to be an above average poker player too, but I’m probably several grand in the hole playing poker.