For headhunter you need a better Chicken Little:
PS. “On a calm sea, every captain is a good one” – Roman Proverb
The market is determined by statistical forces with several hundred million actors. Virtually nobody gets it right. If the market is doing consistently poorly or well, then anybody can sound like a pro. On the other hand, people do make statements and eventually some of them – by sheer dumb coincidence – turn out right. These people are the next round of pundits, until what they say fails. Don’t believe any such “experts”.
I haven’t met any economic experts who I thought had a methodology that could explain their subject matter, i.e., my considered opinion as a career scientist is that economics really is just smoke and mirrors. Basing national policy on it is idiocy.
Best economic advice: Learn basic Math ('specially subtraction, which optimists like to short change), then don’t fuck up.
If that’s true, how can people make money on the long term on the markets? It happens, there are traders that base their decisions mainly on the fundamentals (as opposed to the technicals: the mathematical side). If being right is coincidence in the long term they shouldn’t make any money.
Countingbeans, why do you believe the inflation will be that bad? I believe that if the U.S. economy suffers, the whole world will suffer economically speaking. In economic hard times investors invest in traditionally “safe” assets, such as the USD (and gold). Of course if the USD status as safe asset would change, that would be a whole other matter, however I believe that is very improbable.
Good question. Stock traders are different than economists. The most important point in buying stock is seeing how the company has been run over time and seeking out competent management practices. This is different than trying to figure out what 1000 companies are going to do in the next 2 years and if consumers somehow “get confidence” to start spending. So for instance I have quite a bit of stock that has been doing well in spite of the supposed recession of which my portfolio has barely taken a note. Taking time to vet who you let use your money is time well spent. If I invested like a lot of people – relying on reports like the OP gave – I’d have been bankrupt years ago. I don’t ever invest in anything I consider to be risky and prefer to take a very long-term approach to wealth management. Works for me, but YMMV.
You have a very intelligent approach. But, keep in mind that when the market as a whole takes a huge dive your stocks will dive with it! Perhaps not quite as low but they will be headed south.
There must be sound economic reasons for investors to keep investing in the market. And if they feel that there are more reasons to be on the sidelines over the next four years your stocks will eventually be effected.
Keep in mind we have a President who punishes success. Large Investors know this and are quite reluctant.
So take care my friend and best of luck to you.