T Nation

Moderates and Independents, 2012?


I think we would ALL agree that the "stakes have been planted", both right and left, at the extremes of the Political Spectrum. I would go so far as to say that most at these extremes already know who they will vote for.

Will the 2012 election hinge on:

1) Moderates and Independents?

2) The President getting his base out?

3) The "Tea Party" effect that will see a GOP candidate swept into the White House faster than you can say "2010 Mid-Term Elections" OR

4) "Other" factors?

Let's discuss.



Anyone but Obama motivation.


This is quite a different election than in 2008.

Back in '08, people didn't know much about Obama, most was purely speculative and accusation at best. Now, we know what he is about. We also know that he has no nuts to speak of. Republicans, have time and time again, pulled his bitch card. They have called his bluff, to see him fold under pressure. I think his base is not in love with him, certainly not as much as in '08.

People also know that he is full of shit, and his promises are pretty hollow when push comes to shove. When I say this, I mean it towards his Leftist colleagues and interests. He talks about "being all about jobs," but his first 15 months in office, the ONLY thing we saw on TV was his fucking health care law. And even then, we see how shady he is, giving Unions exemptions to the health care mandates.

Now that the dust has settled, and the smoke has cleared, from the words of my accountant...

"The people voted for a black man from Chicago for president, and that's what they got...a black man from Chicago. Why do people seem so surprised at his behavior ?"

Side note - my tax guy worked for the IRS for 25 yrs, so he has seen his share of shysters.


So...by all indications, Obama should lose?



Not at all. How many incumbents that were elected (not appointed such as Ford) actually lost a Presidential race over the past 80 years? Exactly two! Jimmy Carter and George Bush (Sr.) And the only reason Bush lost was because there was a more conservative candidate running in 1992, Ross Perot who garnered 19% of the vote, most of which would have gone to Bush.

So the only other elected incumbent to lose in a two way race was Jimmy Carter. And he lost because he was perceived as weak on foriegn policy because of the Iran hostage crisis. And also very ineffective with fiscal policy (note inflation at 16%, gas lines, and interest rates at 18%).

One other important historical notation. It took the likes of Ronald Reagan to oust Carter. When someone looks at a sitting President and claims that he will be easy to beat they're dead wrong. There is a reason that sitting Presidents who run for reelection usually win. They have control of the government and can bring powerful forces to bear on the population which can influence their vote. And that's not even counting the MSL media which will be out in full force to reelect their chosen one.

Can Obama lose? Yes. But, it will take almost the perfect candidate running the perfect campaign along with a continuing slumping economy to beat Obama. And then it will still be a squeaker for many of the reasons I mentioned along with the fact that Obama will have a larger war chest.

Many Obama haters (of which I am one) find this difficult to believe because THEY think the President is doing a poor job (and he is). But there are millions of people (and organizations) who are the recipients of big government aid, in some form, who will turn out in droves to support Obama. Along with the African American population that will vote for Obama regardless of what he does.

More salt to the wound, if Obama dumps Biden and takes on Hillary as his VP that will place him in the almost impossible to beat category.

On a brighter note, every Presidential election is either won or lost electorally on a state by state basis. So look for key states like Ohio, PA, Fla, Illinois and others to tell the tale early on. Right now Obama's poll numbers are slumping badly in these (and other) key states, so there is a window of opportunity, if the economy continues to be brutal in certain states. And finally there are more republican governors this time around than in 2008, that too adds to the republican nominees chances. As a republican governor, it is said, can add up to 3% (or more depending on his popularity) to the republican nominees chances.

But unfortunately at this point in time Obama is the odds on favorite in my opinion.


Lets hope he loses, is actions and policies do not make any sense. I don't think a tea party nominee will win but they will gain more seats in both houses or so I hope.
Independents will go more to the right. In my opinion his base will not go out and vote. Other factors may be him himself. I never liked the guy and he comes of as very arrogant and pompous. This might his own undoing.
Like MaximusB people only voted for him because they wanted a minority president. Sad to say.


Oustanding, Zeb. Thanks!

One thing that those other elections didn't have is what is being called "The Tea Party Effect".

In other words, won't they be a strong "counter" to the President's forces?

(You didn't mention what effect you thought this will have on the election).



That was not the reason he won. He won because:

1- He was a charismatic youthful candidate who is very good at reading the teleprompter.

2- We just finished up 8 years of a republican administration which became very unpopular near its end.

3- The Main Stream Liberal Media threw Hillary under the bus and got solidly behind Obama. Refusing to even speak of his former ties, attendance at the church of hate and his lack of experience.

4- The republicans fielded a candidate that had zero charisma and looked like everyone's grandfather.

Make no mistake about it, he did NOT win BECAUSE he was black.


The Tea Party has been partly nullified by the media which has accused them of being racists and called them Nazi's. But they're just doing their job....for Obama!

Anyway they'll have more of a say in who gets the nomination. But which ever republican gets the nomination the Tea Party will vote for him/her. Because you and I both know they are NOT voting for Obama. And the same goes for the Christian right.



Will Obama lose ? I doubt it. I don't see anyone in the GOP lineup who can beat him. Most look like circus rejects, kind of a shame that we couldn't get a guy just right of center. Perry is too religious, Bachman is untested, Romney will never escape his Romney-care.

Zeb is correct on a number of things.

Obama didn't get elected by his color, he is an outstanding orator and public speaker, and people HATED GW Bush and the Republicans. The Republicans put up a crotchety old man as a candidate, old, with no social skills to speak of.

The Republicans really do have a golden opportunity here, by relaxing their anal sphincter just a bit, and not being so fucking Republican. If they are willing to move their political compass just a little left, they will win moderates and perhaps some Dems. Fiscally Conservative, socially neutral, and business friendly. I want to see someone offer a tax incentive to keep jobs here in the US. And for fuck's sake, GTFO out of the Middle East. You throw up someone like that, I would bet he could beat Obummer.


Hmm Zeb no but that has a huge factor in my opinion. Your 4 points are dead on, but when 95% of blacks vote for him that does not help. I heard some people blame the guilt white phenomena as well this might have some effect too.
Even then as a minority he is given many passes by the media and other people afraid to speak due to his skin color hence is still somewhat popularity.
Also the Tea Party will gain more seats in both houses right? What nominees do you fellas think have a chance to beat him?


Hey Pal, I don't think Perry is nearly as religious as he wants the far right to think. As you know in getting the nomination a republican must swing right during the primaries and then move back to the center for the general election. And of course the democrats swing left during the primaries and back the the center for the general.

Perry is handling this masterfully so far. claiming that he hasn't made up his mind yet if he wants to run. This keeps him out of the fray and also what do people want? What they don't think they can get. Perry is looking smarter and better every day.


I do agree that some in the press are afraid to say a bad word about Obama because of his skin color. But, most don't want to say a bad word about Obama because he is their chosen one. He is the most liberal President that we've ever had in the history of the country. That makes him the media doll and the Hollywood favorite. This will never change no matter how badly he handles the economy.

The racial guilt you speak of is over played. It is primarily from the left (they're stupid enough to buy into that crap) who would have voted for Obama anyway. Obama won for the very reasons that I listed. Black, white, brown, red, green it doesn't matter if emotionally the candidate appeals to the voter. Obama connected, McCain did not.


"...Perry is nearly as religious as he wants the far right to think..."

This goes back to an earlier post I made.

Politicians have to be very careful about wrapping themselves up in religion....because it can end up being a noose that will strangle them if they have more-than-a-few skeletons in the closet.

I don't know much about Perry or his past; but it would probably be safe to say that he is just a man, with his share of imperfections and things he wish he would have done differently.



I'll bite. I agree that I think Obama can lose IF the Republicans put up a candidate that is not seen as a 'typical' politician and does not run a purely negative campaign (i.e. actually talks clearly about his/her policy stands) and does not tout religion. I think the middle/Independent voters will be put off if the candidate comes off as far religious right. The Republicans need to put up a centrist, though the likelihood of that is slim-to-none.

I think McCain could have won if he stayed as 2000 McCain and not 2008 McCain v2.? (that and had a reasonable running mate.)

I think people will take Ron Paul seriously if he picks a foreign policy big-wig as his running mate.

Rick Perry will not come off well. He has run up the debt in Texas every year in office, dipping into the slush fund to cover himself/the debt and once accepted money from Obama's administration the day after he said he would not, to cover the debt. Hell, this year the business community in Texas was fighting against Perry's cuts to education. He will not play well to the nation as a whole. Bush was a far better governor than Perry.

And I think Bush senior's lost re-election was a product of Reagan's growing of government without increasing revenues. I think some of Clinton's legacy benefited from Bush in the fiscal surplus 90s with economic growth. Basically, Bush did what was need and lost because of it.


I see a lot of good points here but I still think Obama will be reelected. His base won't vote for a Republican so despite them being somewhat disillusioned with him he'll still get the vote. I just don't see a candidate at this point in time who is strong enough to knock him off. It's like Zeb said, if he puts Hillary up as his VP he will be almost impossible to unseat. Don't underestimate the power of the media, which is still behind him.


But maybe his base will be disappointed enough to stay home.


I don't think the masses of idiots that went to the polls for him will have the motivation to do so twice. These are people who are on welfare so you know they are lazy.


Christie could be brilliant, but his weight will cause him the election.


Yeah but he can squat a shit-ton.