It's an odd-numbered year, so I don't like the Giants' chances. That, and their starting pitching is a complete fucking disaster right now.
I also like the Padres, and I could see them leading the West for most of the year. But in the end, the Dodgers are the better team with the better pitching. The way to win in baseball is virtually unchanged over the last 100 years or so: good pitching and good defense are 2/3 of the equation, and the Dodgers are arguably better than anyone else in the division at those things. And their offense isn't exactly a bunch of punching-Judy swishes.
In the Central, I like the Cardinals, and I like them to get back to the Series as well. Over in the East, the Nationals are going to be tough to beat, and I anticipate an NLCS between them and St. Louis.
In the American League, the A's still have the pitching, and I don't think the Angels are the real deal. They had a lot of things go right for them last year, and I don't anticipate the same level of fortuitousness. The Mariners are overrated and seem to be this year's Blue Jays, a team surrounded by a lot of hype and not a whole lot else. It wouldn't surprise me to see them finish with about 80 wins and in 3rd place.
In the Central, I still like the Tigers. The division is a fucking joke for the most part, although I think the Royals can give them a run for their money if they catch a few breaks along the way.
In the East, I just can't get behind Toronto. They play in that fucking abomination of a stadium, and since no one else is playing on that horrific turf, it really gives them a disadvantage since it can wear on you over the course of a season. Baltimore looks good, the Yankees look old, and the Red Sox look inconsistent. They also don't have the pitching. I like the A's and the Orioles in the ALCS, and although I'm probably a fool for predicting this, I think the A's finally get over the hump and make the Series. That assumes that Bob Melvin learns to stop managing like a fucking psychotic. The guy is simply wound too tight sometimes. He should take a page out of Bruce Bochy's book and relax a little.