Intelligent predictions? Thoughts?
It's not going to be as easy for Mir this time, I think...
Brock by TKO Round 1. I feel he has more experience this time around and he will be able to use the natural tools he has to beat Mir. I think he will overwhelm him and just be too powerful. G n P for the win.
Lesnar has chicken legs and will get caught in a leg based submission in the second round.
I would agree with bart on one point, and that is I do not believe it will make it past round 1. Be it Frank or Brock as the winner. Both of these guys are just too dangerous, and Brock is too quick paced to not capitalize or get caught. I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing this go past round 3.
Me personally, I hope Mir wins. I don't like Brock, and I think his size and strength advantage has carried him a long ways against some fighters. Beating a 40 something year old, just coming off a year layoff, who was more interested in making movies at the time, doesn't make you any more of a champ than beating the interim champ. Don't get me wrong, I love Couture, but that was not the Randy who beat any of the other heavyweights.
I think we will see later rounds in this one. At least 3. I think both guys are extremly dangerous and both will be looking not to get caught. I hope this is not the case and they both come out swinging, but I would bet on them playing it smart for awhile. Both are capable of finishing a fight fast, but neither are going to take a big risk to do so.
I just don't how Mir wins this one outside of Brock making a mistake. This could certainly mean a victory, but I would rather be the one that has to make a mistake to lose. Brock decides where the fight goes and when.
If he doesn't feel that Mir can knock him out, he keeps it standing. If Mir is out pointing him at distance, he can initiate and dominate the clinch or take him down at the end of the round and avoid a submission for half a minute.
If he does take him down and is able to control him like he did to Herring, he can keep him there.
I also believe the longer the fight goes, the greater the advantage for brock. First off, the guy sweats like a fat kid. It's going to be tough to submit a greased up gorilla. Secondly, Brock's strength in round 3 is probably still greater than Mir's strength in round 1. If I were going to grind it out with someone, it would not be Lesnar.
While Mir has the ability to capitalize on a mistake on the ground, I'll take the guy capable of imposing his will in all positions.
If Lesnar keeps it standing for the first round Mir will gas and Brock will finish him in the second.
If Lesnar takes it too the ground in the first round Mir will scramble for a sub victory.
I dont see Mir winning it on the feet OR taking Lesnar down himself.
Mir can of course catch him with a sub, but as much as Brock beating Randy wasn't that impressive for some, I'm equally unimpressed by Mir vs Nog. Mir basically beat up a scarecrow version of Nog after a decade of beatings and a big knee operation. His stand up will be tested. I feel that is the crucial part. He has to make Brock uncomfortable enough for him to want to take it to the ground and keep it there.
Mir by sub 2:00 of round 3, OR Lesnar by TKO 1:00 of round 1.
My prediction is Brock Lesnar, TKO round 1.
Here is the break up of the fight in my opinion:
I believe this fight is so interesting because of Mir's strategy. We all know how Brock will finish. Either catch him with a big punch standing and then ground and pound OR take him to the ground and then ground and pound.
He is simple and predictable, but its his size, strength and athleticism that make him such a big challenge. And make no mistake, Brock WILL decide whether the fight remains standing or goes to the ground.
However, it will be interesting to see what Mir does. He is obviously the more exeprienced striker and his standup was phenomenal against Noguira. I think Nog connected with one kick and one jab throughout the fight. But Mir knows from his first fight that he has no chance if he stands head to head with Brock. He will just get over-powered like he did and either get taken down or knocked down.
Mir NEEDS to box with him. Combination and move. Combination and move. Just staying light on his toes. We know from Nog's fight that Mir can hit quite hard. And we also know that Brock is not used to being hit in the face. I personally thought when Couture landed that punch flush on Brock's face which cut him, Brock did get a little flustered. Will Brock be able to stick to his game plan if he is continuously out struck by Mir or get frustrated and make a mistake?
Obviously, Mir stands a better chance of winning through submission than he does through strikes, but taking Brock down is out of the question. The only way the fight goes to the ground is if Brock decides to take it there. The only way Brock will take it down is either if he just gets the take down and hammer fists for the finish. In which case I don't see how Mir will survive.
Or he will take it to the ground if Mir frustrates him standing and is getting the better of the exchange. Brock will then take it down to protect himself. And this, in my opinion, is how Mir will be able to finish. A frustrated Brock, who has taken Mir down out of desperation will be much more likely to get submitted by one of the best submission heavy weights in the world.
However, with all of this said, I don't think Mir will be able to pull it off. He needs too many things to go his way. He needs to outstrike Brock, but also not get caught with even one shot in the process. After being taken down, hope that Brock makes a mistake, and then capitalize at that exact moment. It's just too much.
I think Brock comes, either takes him down and ground and pounds him for the finish OR he catches him with a big shot and ground and pounds him for the finish. I don't see this fight going long. Mir will not be able to sustain the beating that Herring did.
Also, Mir's chin makes the fight that much more predictable. All 3 of his losses come from TKO. And he got knocked down by Brock's jab in their first fight. That fact alone makes it a guaranteed win for Brock in my opinion.
Mir has discussed how his strking is improving dramatically. He also said if he makes a mistake he gets hit, which he has taken before. If Brock makes a mistake he's finished. Brock beat a 40+ year old in Randy who weighed about 50lbs less and went the distance with Herring. I was not impressed by either victory. Mir is 262 now with abs. Clearly he is training his balls off. That was always his shortcoming.
Before his accident he did not have to train hard because he was so gifted and mma as in a younger stage. After his accident when he came back he quickly learned how well versed fighters have bceome and how hard they work. I really like Mir for this fight. I can't wait until July 11th.
I think we'll see a much improved version of both fighters, in every aspect. I think Brock is a brute, and fights more with power than strategy. I think Mir isn't getting enough credit on his improving game, and I think brock doesn't get enough credit overall.
I wasn't impressed with Mir's victory either, but I was impressed with how it came about. I think nog is punched out, and I think we'll see that again with his fight against randy.
All in all I think you guys give brock too much credit by saying he'll drag this fight on. He's not one to think when he gets in the cage, he's one to destroy. He's a freight train. I think Mir has strategy on his side, and I think that again that could be the deciding factor. Will he catch brock in an easy sub? No. If he get's it, he'll have to work for it, and work damn hard.
Lesnar has chicken legs? He squats 700 pounds.
I agree with this. Personally the longer the fight goes the more things swing in Mir's favor. He is the more experienced fighter. Brock is going to come out full throttle and try to overwhelm Mir. Personally I think he will, but if Mir weathers the storm at the beginning he will have a good chance of winning this fight. If Brock comes out and goes all-out like I expect and doesn't finish he won't have much left in the tank and Mir will be able to execute his gameplan. I actually think it would be beneficial to Brock for him to pull back on the reins a little and try to bully Mir for the duration of the fight, but he will not do that. He is still livid about the loss in their first fight and wants to send a message.
While no one will confuse Mir with Mike Tyson, I think he showed that he can bang against Nog. And to this point, Lesnars chin has never been tested. How's he gonna react after eating a few jabs and/or straight rights? I have no idea what Mirs gameplan is, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he kept it standing long enough to get in Lesnars head and forced him in to a silly mistake then subbed him.
Honestly just not impressed with anything Lesnars shown to date. His punches are more like closed fist pushes and when he's on top he flails away like an epileptic chicken. With that, hamhock-handed Brock could get out there and KO Mir in the first... Taking Mir in the first.
Every gives brock's strength too much credit. Sure the guy is a power house, but only from the waste up. The dude is top heavy as shit, and as we already know Mir's leg kicks are nasty. Hard to push forward and impose your will striking when your knees are jacked to shit.
Brock ate some shots from Randy. Have you seen Brocks head, it's going to take more than Frank Mir to hurt him standing. Mir's legs are nasty hahah. One fight and he's just a bad ass striker. When he can outstrike Brandon Vera than hell be pretty good at striking. This fights going to suck and the winner is going to get owned by Carwin.
I agree fully. He's as big as Brock, but has skillz!
I think Carwin has a ways to go as well. These days it just doesn't do to be a single faceted striker. You have to be able to kick, knee, and use those bows as well. The guys got some skill, but I think brock is a better wrestler. I think if Mir doesn't beat him, it will be a while till someone does.
To me though it doesn't matter. It's just damn exciting to see this many contenders in a formerly talent dry weight class. Now if only we could test these guys against Fedor! THAT WOULD BE PRIMO!
Lesnar all the way, What most dont realise is everytime we see Brock fight we are seeing a better fighter than before, Mir is gonna virtually the same guy that fought Nog.Now realising no one has ever put a hurting on Nog like Mir did the lesnar we are gonna see at 100 is gonna be the best one yet and I am certain he wont get caught in another leg lock, That is just stupid to even imagine.