The important stuff:
[i]GOP Presidential Prospects Dim, Poll Finds
By JACKIE CALMES
January 24, 2008 8:39 p.m.
Just when it seemed Americans couldn’t get any gloomier about the country’s direction, they have. That finding, from the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, could leave Republicans the gloomiest of all, as prospects for their party darken further in a presidential election year.
Amid a weakened economy and market turmoil, President Bush’s stock has fallen again as he prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address next week, underscoring the burden he could pose for his party’s presidential nominee in the race to November’s election.
As for his would-be successors, the remaining Republicans candidates have dropped further behind in hypothetical match-ups against potential Democratic standard-bearers Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The exception is Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has revived his still-fragile candidacy and takes the lead in Republicans’ contest for the first time in the poll.He runs even with both Democrats in hypothetical contests – 46% to 44% against Mrs. Clinton, and a 42% draw against Mr. Obama. Both results are essentially the same given the poll’s margin of error.
In a Republican field that is down to five candidates from originally twice that, Mr. McCain is the top choice of Republicans, with 29% support versus 23% for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Mr. Romney, who tied former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the top spot in last month’s poll with 20% support each, remains at that number.
But Mr. Giuliani, the Republicans’ national poll leader for all of 2007, drops to fourth place with 15%, continuing a long slide that is reflected, more ominously, in state polls in Florida. He has staked his candidacy on winning the Sunshine State’s Republican primary on Tuesday, but now trails Messrs. McCain and Huckabee, who are splitting the votes of, respectively, Florida’s moderate Republicans and Christian conservatives.
On the Democrats’ side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47% to 32%. For her, that’s roughly the same as in December, but Mr. Obama is up nine points. Third-place John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, gets 12%, about what he had last month.
Most Democrats – 51% – say Mrs. Clinton would have the best chance to beat a Republican; 29% say Mr. Obama, up from 18% last month. Among Americans overall, 47% have positive views of Mrs. Clinton, 41% negative – her best reading since 2004.
The Democrats’ eventual nominee will start with a leg up: 48% of Americans want a Democrat to be elected president, and 30% a Republican.
The WSJ/NBC poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday, as both global and U.S. stock market swoons raised fears of a financial crash, and the Federal Reserve intervened with an emergency cut in its short-term interest rate target. As for the political backdrop, the 1,008 adults were interviewed after news of last Saturday’s Nevada party caucuses, which Mrs. Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney won, and South Carolina’s Republican primary where Mr. McCain led (and Mr. Romney came in fourth). The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
“For Democrats it’s a favorable political climate, but in the end it will be about the candidates and not the climate,” says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who, with Republican Bill McInturff, conducts the WSJ/NBC polls. Mr. McInturff adds that not since 1948 has a party ever won or held the White House with the economy – and voters’ view of it – been so weak.[/i]
Bolding added by me.