T Nation

Machida / Evans


#1

I'd like to hear some input / predictions on the Machida vs. Evans fight. I'll go first.
Evans continues to impress me with his striking improvements and his wrestling has always been there. I had been underestimating him in the past but now I think he is one of the top dogs in the LHW division. Funny how a bunch of victories will do that!

Anyway, I was really looking forward to Evans / Jackson (seems they don't care for each other) but this fight will show whether or not I am seeing what I think I am.
What I think I'm seeing is the next dominant fighter in LHW in Machida. I have been following Thiago Silva closely over the last couple of years because I like his style (killer) and his skills (very good). Machida also has been very interesting although previously a bit boring.

Machida physically dominated Silva which was something I did not see coming. Remember, Silva pretty much man-handled Houston Alexander! At the end of the Machida / Silva fight it looked like Machida simply threw Silva to the ground without even using a trip! Maybe I missed it but it looked like he just threw him down.

Machida has also made everyone he has fought look bad. So far, no one has even given him a legitimate challenge (as far as I know). He's awkward with his strikes, especially his kicks which are quick, accurate and powerful. They keep calling him a karate fighter but I don't think that describes him very well. He's very well-rounded and getting him to the ground so far has been tough for anyone to do. I would like to see how he handles being on the ground and Rashad might just be able to get it there.

So, my prediction is Machida by knockout and subsequently dominating the division for a long time. Everyone else is fighting for second. Here's how I look at the probable winner of a fight: if the fighters were to fight 10 times, who would win the majority of them. That's my system and it has worked extremely well for several years so far.

I know anything can happen (Serra / St. Pierre?) but a flash knockout or Machida becoming complacent is what I believe it will take to beat him.
So let's hear it guys and ladies. Tell me what you think!


#2

I think you summarized my thoughts quite well.

I think Machida will win, although I'm not confident it will be a TKO. More likely a decision.


#3

I think BJ won a round from him, I don't think Rashad's wrestling is significantly better than Tito's, so I dont see it going to the ground. I wonder if Machidas Sumo background has anything to do with his takedown defense. I see Machida winning too, but anything can happen Rashad has been down in his past two and gone on to end the fight. I can see Machida by submission or decision, Rashad hasn't been finished yet.


#4

I'm going to just have to flip a coin on this one.

Evans' "explosiveness" + Lyoto's "elusiveness" = "silent,but deadly"


#5

You all make good points but I'm just going by the fact that I have seen Evans rocked quite a few times, although he does seem to recover very well. Machida will put some on his chin.
Another variable would be Machida's chin (haven't seen it tested yet).
Drew, what BJ are you talking about? Thanks


#6

bj penn


#7

my bad bj rocked him and his only really close fight was with sam greco which was a split decision


#8

BJ Penn


#9

I didn't know they had fought. Talk about a size difference! Thanks for the info


#10

Honestly I think Rashad will be one of the few guys in the LHW division that can test Machida's endurance if he can avoid damage and continue to push him into the later rounds. I think that (while he is obviously in good shape) this may be one area where Rashad will hold a distinct advantage. If you watch Machida's fight with Tito, he was pretty damn tired at the end even though Tito pretty much mounted zero offense. If Rashad is able to hammer him with takedowns and top pressure, I could see Lyoto fatiguing before Rashad.

That isn't my dream ending to this fight, however, I'd like to see them throw high kicks at the same time and knock each other the fuck out.


#11

I'm thinking the same thing, Slimjim.


#12

Interesting point. Machida's style is very active and it takes a lot of energy to be continually moving like he does.

What I think will be interesting (or possibly boring) to see will be who takes the lead in this fight. Both guys are primarily counter fighters and really seem to look best when their opponent is chasing after them.


#13

This is pretty much what I had in mind when I made my sad attempt at humor in my earlier post.


#14

Good point. I am interested to see as well who will take the lead. If I had to guess, the first two rounds they will feel each other out, and if anyone makes a move in round 3, it will be Rashad. I just see the Dragon being patient and waiting for Rashad to come after him.

Lyoto UD


#15

Yeah, it could be a boring fight but they are both explosive at times. I would give the offensive edge to Machida although it is a relative point with these two!


#16

I think Machida will win via subs like the Sokajew fight (I know its spelled wrong.)


#17

I'm saying Evans wins via KO in the fourth round.


#18

Machida by TKO. He is going to dominate the LHW division in the same manner as Anderson Silva. Big call but the guy has got sublime skills.


#19

hope evans wins.


#20

Although Rashad has improved his standup, I don't think it is near the level of Machida. By the same token, I am not so sure Machida's ground game is where Rashad's is. Having said that, I think Machida is more skilled in submissions. Bottom line: Machida 3rd round TKO