Good for them. And if it’s no skin off my back to spend the minute amount that it takes to be in the game (be it blackjack at a casino, playing the lottery, etc.) then I will continue to be “one of those people,” and gladly so. Like I said, the few bucks spent on a lottery ticket affect my life ZERO. But the effects on my life from winning a huge jackpot? Priceless.
[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
Damici wrote:
Of course the statistics say it’s mathematically more “sensible” not to buy a ticket. But that doesn’t change the fact that you have to be in it to win it.
People like you are why casinos make money.
I don’t think I would ever play in a game where I have a better chance dying on my way to buy the ticket.
[quote]dollarbill44 wrote:
To all of those people who don’t play because of the odds, I ask you, what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.
DB[/quote]
Not really a valid argument. Previous luck doesn’t forcast future luck. That’s like saying that since red hasn’t hit in a while, it’s due, or vice versa.
[quote]Andrew Dixon wrote:
A receptionist I worked with won $3million AUS about 10 years ago. I figured that I will never now, what are the cances of knowing somneone who won and winning yourself…very little.
[/quote]
That’s not accurate. Your odds are no different if you know someone who’s won, or even if you have already won. Statistically, if you win, your chances of winning again are exactly the same as someone who’s never won (assuming you play the same amount, of course).
Best way to win at the lottery: Marry a fantastic, intellectually gifted, athletic woman, and her grandpa wins a big fucking prize (millions) a short time later.
[quote]m0dd3r wrote:
dollarbill44 wrote:
jtrinsey wrote:
Damici wrote:
Of course the statistics say it’s mathematically more “sensible” not to buy a ticket. But that doesn’t change the fact that you have to be in it to win it.
People like you are why casinos make money.
I don’t think I would ever play in a game where I have a better chance dying on my way to buy the ticket.
Well, two things in life are absolute certainties:
You’re going to die.
If you never play the lottery, you will never win it.
I will buy a ticket or two if the pot gets big enough and I remember to buy one. It’s no big sweat one way or the other to me.
To all of those people who don’t play because of the odds, I ask you, what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.
DB
Well, seeing as I’m sitting here writing this, I’m going to have to venture a guess of 1/1 or 100% odds that my ancestors came together in just the way they did for me to be born.[/quote]
Oh boy. You’re a statistical wizard, aren’t you? So, the odds of someone who has won the lottery were 1:1 when they bought the ticket, is that what you’re saying?
As for your odds of being born, it is quite complex. First of all, you have the many potential mating choices of your ancestors as well as the number of sperm that attacked each individual egg along the way (noting that different sperm have different genetic characteristics). This doesn’t even consider the timing of events that could have blocked any of your ancestors from meeting or procreating or living through gestation, etc.
Then again, there may be a strong likelihood that your family tree is really more like a telephone pole, which greatly changes the probabilities.
[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
dollarbill44 wrote:
To all of those people who don’t play because of the odds, I ask you, what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.
DB
Not really a valid argument. Previous luck doesn’t forcast future luck. That’s like saying that since red hasn’t hit in a while, it’s due, or vice versa.[/quote]
It wasn’t an argument. And I also don’t know that your example has to do with what I said. I wasn’t saying that since you were born you will win the lottery someday. I was drawing a comparison to the odds of each event taking place. In fact, your odds of winning a state lottery are probably better than the odds of your exact genetic code coming up in the gene pool and surviving.
[quote]JNG wrote:
why does it seem like it’s always the old people who win?[/quote]
Very true, but I think I’d be more pissed if someone under 25 won it.
To me it always seems like everyone OUTSIDE of New England wins the BIG Powerballs.
[quote]dollarbill44 wrote:
jtrinsey wrote:
dollarbill44 wrote:
To all of those people who don’t play because of the odds, I ask you, what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.
DB
Not really a valid argument. Previous luck doesn’t forcast future luck. That’s like saying that since red hasn’t hit in a while, it’s due, or vice versa.
It wasn’t an argument. And I also don’t know that your example has to do with what I said. I wasn’t saying that since you were born you will win the lottery someday. I was drawing a comparison to the odds of each event taking place. In fact, your odds of winning a state lottery are probably better than the odds of your exact genetic code coming up in the gene pool and surviving.
DB[/quote]
I’m not arguing it isn’t possible to win the lottery. It’s just stupid to waste money, IMO. Every time you play the lottery, you lose .999xxxxx% of that money.
In any situation like this where the rewards so vastly outnumber the rewards (if you call winning the lottery a reward, I’m not sure I would), it might change your decision to play, as it obviously does some people.
To all of those people who don’t play because of the odds, I ask you, what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.
DB
Well, seeing as I’m sitting here writing this, I’m going to have to venture a guess of 1/1 or 100% odds that my ancestors came together in just the way they did for me to be born.
Oh boy. You’re a statistical wizard, aren’t you? So, the odds of someone who has won the lottery were 1:1 when they bought the ticket, is that what you’re saying?
[/quote]
I don’t know that I’d call myself a wizard, although statistics was fairly heavily emphasized in college, it’s been a few years since I’ve actually studied it though. However, you may want to brush up on your ability to catch a facetious remark. I mean, I understand the lack of tone and inflection inherent in text communication makes it difficult, but come on, did you really think I was serious? Next time I’ll remember to use the tags for ya.
The argument is still asinine, all those things that could have happened to prevent me from being born did happen, they just happened to someone else. The probability of winning the lottery is a known, there are only so many possible permutations that can exist depending on the numbers.
Calculating the odds of a single person being born is impossible. Even if you could go back all the way to the beginning of time, you’d have to be able to calculate the odds of the universe coming into existence. What were the odds of the big bang happening eh smart guy? Even as an analogy, the scale involved in the birth calculation is so astronomical it’s not even remotely similar to the odds in the lottery.
[quote]
Then again, there may be a strong likelihood that your family tree is really more like a telephone pole, which greatly changes the probabilities.
DB[/quote]
wow, good job fuck stick, skip the petty name calling and go right to the bashing on my family and ancestors. Are you implying my ancestors are a series of asexual generations? Brilliant, although it doesn’t change the probabilities at all.
I will buy two tickets a week, one for each Powerball drawing. Do I expect to win? No, absolutely not. Two bucks for the entertainment of thinking what I would do if I won is worth the money. And to the people that say they buy tickets when it gets high enough. Does it matter that much if you win 15 million or 360 million? They are both life changing.
[quote]chillain wrote:
Freaky Styley wrote:
When it’s above a certain amount, I believe it’s mathematically correct to buy a ticket.
EXACTLY. Some of the “odds” thrown around this thread so far are laughably false.
Here in CA, it is mathematically correct* to buy one Superlotto ticket whenever that jackpot reaches $42 million. (1:41,416,353)
And for our multi-state Megamillions drawing, one ticket is completely sound mathematically* when the jackpot exceeds $176 million. (1:175,711,536)
* the wager’s expected value (EV) is positive
[/quote]
Interesting, I didn’t know that. I read for the Powerball that the jackpot needed to exceed 300million or something (which it does on occassiona) for the wager to be mathematically correct, but that could be wrong though.
[quote]dollarbill44 wrote:
what were the odds that all your ancestors came together in such a way, under such unique circumstances, that you were actually born? Just something to ponder.[/quote]
In my state (I’m not sure about others) the poorest counties spend the most money playing the lottery on a per capita basis and in total dollars spent. Vise versa the counties with the highest median incomes spend the least (and I’m assuming that those income statistics per county include lottery winnings).
It doesn’t bother me if people play the lottery, my wife used to bug me about it after our state got a lottery. And like has been said already somebody’s got to win, but the people I see playing the lottery the most (go to a convenience store and fill up your car with gas thirty minutes before the nightly numbers drawing) are spending serious money playing on a regular basis. And those are the people who can least afford it.
If those folks would save the $30-60 a week they spend on the lottery they’d have a decent little nest egg after 10-20 years. Put that money to work for you and you could easily have it generating income on it’s own. But hey if they’d rather spend their money putting my kids through college who am I to argue, right?
[quote]Damici wrote:
But if you actually win $300 million (or any substantial amount)?? JIMINY – FUCKING – CHRISTMAS, will that change your life!!![/quote]
[quote]Khronos wrote:
If those folks would save the $30-60 a week they spend on the lottery they’d have a decent little nest egg after 10-20 years.[/quote]
But WHAT IF?
What if they could be the next ones to win!?
You never know. That’s why you got to keep buying more tickets. The more money you spend, the better chance you have to win. Think about it, if you play the lottery for 40 years, you invest like $500,000 total… and you win.
That makes up for it. You just gotta keep playing, you never know when you are going to win.
In the insurance business, you are expected to pay out a little more for the insurance than what your expected costs will be. You’re really just getting peace of mind that you’re protected if a HUGE loss happens to you, even if it’s statistically unlikely to happen.
Most people think those who go without insurance are idiots, yet they criticize lottery players because it’s a net loss for the player, on average. It’s hypocritical.
Finally, lottery money goes to education and other public funds, while insurance money goes to slimy lawyers, drug companies, greedy doctors, and so on. Although it’s a net loss to play the lottery, usually, I still think it’s not really a waste of money if one looks at the whole economy.
