T Nation

Let's Talk South Carolina


#1


I know that New Hampshire is next week for the GOP...but it's pretty clear that Romney has a commanding lead there. So it's not as interesting to me as what is happening in South Carolina.

Romney is actually surging in South Carolina (based in recent Polls); and appears to be ahead by a wide margin with registered GOP voters.

Now...I would have thought that with a conservative, Southern state like South Carolina, Santorum would have another strong showing. But it seems (we're still a week away!) to not be working out that way.

Is it money?

Is it organization?

It is "all-of-the-above"?

Is it "other"?

Thoughts?

Mufasa


#2

Good topic Mufasa!

It's my feeling that Romney will win in South Carolina. It's all about the big MO at this point, but it does go deeper than that. The conservative Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley has endorsed Romney as most already know. This will give Mitt a huge bounce as she is quite popular (also a potential VP). Granted Romney won't win SC by the margins that he's going to win New Hampshire but he will come out ahead. And then it will all be over after he wins Florida. This is a very good thing (if it does happen) as he will have an even larger war chest to face Obama.

As for the other candidates. I don't see Rick Perry doing anything in SC. He took himself out of the race by claiming that he wanted to think things over before moving on. The voters in SC will not take him as seriously as they would have. Santorum will probably take second place.


#3

Ah!

I forgot about the Governor Haley endorsement!

Do you think that she is on a Romney "short list" of VP candidates, Zeb?

Somehow I have the feeling that he almost "has" to pick a Southern Conservative to be on the ticket, because that is where he is the most vulnerable.

Mufasa

(EDIT: She is young, though...and has shown some political naivity...)


#4

Santorum, maybe Gingrich. Santorum is raking in the dough now. Gingrich, because there are debates between now and then. And debates and speeches are what propelled him originally. He could realistically win his way back up on those alone. And he has managed to build up a bit of money himself now (see the anti-romney ads starting to show up in NH now). One of the two is going to break out from the other, coalescing enough of the anti-Romney vote by then to win SC. A somewhat even split between the two is Romney's only chance. However, I think the base is beginning to understand this, and is about to settle in very soon.


#5

A funny tangent:


#6

Another funny tangent...

http://www.fitsnews.com/2011/12/15/lamb-nikki-haleys-approval-rating-should-be-lower/


#7

I'm not fond of politically inexperienced running mates. I remember well what the media did to Dan Quayle. And Loyd Bentsen made Quayle's life miserable during the debate,

Quayle: "I'm about the same age as Jack Kennedy when he ran for President."

Bentsen: "I knew John Kennedy, I workd with John Kennedy, and Senator, you're no John Kennedy. And the crowd roared as Dan Quayle stood there red faced looking hurt and said "That was uncalled for."

It was a horrible moment in my political life---Just awufl.

Bush (Sr.) went on to win handily anyway carrying 40 states. But he won inspight of Quayle not because of him.

On the other hand some very wise picks through the years was Kennedy picking LBJ. Since Kennedy was perceived as being young he went with a very powerful Senate leader who had some mileage on him. And he was from Texas so the ticket was balanced quite well.

Romney doesn't need to go that route as he is pervceived as having plenty of experience. So, he needs someone who can balance the ticket and if possible attract either more women or minority's neither are fond of the republican party.

So who can do that? Or who can do at least one of those things?

I woudld never pick somone like Gingrich who has been around Washington for 30+ years. Not to mention that he comes off as nasty. the one person that can bring both an important state and a minority group is Senator Marco Rubio. He's exceptionally smart has charisma and is an incredibly good speaker. I'm actually in awe of this guy given that he's only 40 years old. Of course the knock on him would be his lack of experience. But they might be hesitant to use that given Obama's own lack of experiecne prior to winning the Presidency.

Rubio will also pull the Hispanic vote which is currently larger than the black vote in the US. He's from Florida and that is a state that would be great to have in the bag and it balances the ticket out nicely given the fact that Romney is from the northeast.

If for some reason Rubio turns it down there's also John Kasich the Governor of Ohio. He'd be great but he's also a new Governor and the people of Ohio may not react well if he leaves them to run on the ticket. But as far as experience he's got plenty as a former Congressman. He too is an excellent speaker and handles himself well on stage.

And I would not leave out putting Rick Santorum on the bottom of the ticket. As I said on another thread I don't think that Santorum will be blasting Romney for this very reason. Santorum would be thrilled to run on the Romney ticket and he could also deliver the key state of PA.

Electoral votes per state:

Pa--20
OH--18
FLA--29 (up from 27)

PA, Ohio, and Florida are all key states that the GOP would love to win so any of the three people above would be fine. But the best choice in my opinion would be Rick Rubio based upon several factors, not the least of which is the 29 electoral votes in Florida.

One more point, if Obama saw a Romney/Rubio ticket coming at him (or anything that is equally strong) I think he just might dump Biden and put Hillary on the ticket. He would make it look acceptable as if old Joe wanted to retire. And I think Hillary would jump at the chance for many reasons.

If there is an Obama/Clinton ticket it will be most difficult to beat by any republican duo. But very possible depending on where the economy is by election day.


#8

If you want Obama out, the only viable guy is Romney.

Sorry, but that's the truth.


#9

I believe he is the only one that does not want to enslave all Democrats , I just can not see how he could win with all his flip flops and I am serious .If I had to elect some one from the Republican party other than Paul he would be it but not because he is good he is just the least bad


#10

IMO Obama is less bad than Romney


#11

Romney flip-flops but does he ever fail to deliver promises? Does it matter that his position is dictated by political winds if he always does what he says he was going to do? I really don't know if he does, just throwing that out there.

It might be a character problem but practically speaking, is it?


#12

Just curious , How do you do both things ?


#13

Be against an issue and vote that way. Next cycle be for the issue and vote that way.


#14

I know it is canned and I do understand changing one's position on a subject


#15

pittbulll,

Instead of posting your little Romney clips you better worry about how your hero and his Chicago cronies are going to defend his "hope and change" record.

I wouldn't want to defend this economy.

And on top of that what will his starry eyed far left supporters think of him renewing the Patriot Act, not closing Guantanamo Bay and renewing the Bush tax cuts? And thse are just for starters. I'm sure that there are numerous clips of Obama talking how bad those three things are.

Romney has nothing on Obama when it comes to changing his mind.


#16

I think the economy is coming around Just My opinion . I do how ever feel he has failed on many fronts , I do how ever , as I say feel he is less bad than all the Republicans and I predict he will be elected to a second term. And if the Republicans don't come up with something better, Hillary will be the next President of the US


#17

Zeb:

About Rubio.

He looks and sounds more and more like he is "running" for the VP spot.

My recommendation to the GOP would be "be careful"...and make sure there has been careful vetting.

Look...there is nothing to say that a young, good-looking guy who lived and spent a LOT of time in Vegas and South Beach (in addition to attending the University of Florida) has absolutely nothing to hide. He can be as clean as the proverbial newly fallen snow.

But he has recently taken some SERIOUS jabs at the President.

If he DOES get the nod (VP); I would say he best "be ready...game on"; and the GOP Nominee best make sure he is carefully vetted. Hoochies coming out of the wordwork and stories of wild parties will not help his currently "squeaky clean" family image.

Also he IS a Conservative Republican with very strong views about immigration that don't always square with the Hispanic community. I just don't think that the Hispanic Vote will be so "automatic".

Mufasa


#18

Back to Santorum.

There is no question that Iowa was, and SC will be, much "friendlier" to Santorum than New Hampshire is working out to be. He seems to be getting hammered on the stump WITH HIS OWN WORDS.

With that being said; a respectable showing by Santorum in NH going into SC HAS to be perceived as a "win".

I think SC then Florida with tell us a lot about the direction of this election.

Mufasa


#19

Huckabee endorses Santorum?

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/huckabee-santorum-romney-obama/2012/01/05/id/423194

Maybe not technically,

"I really doubt I will endorse anyone in the primary process, I'm still holding the right to do that, but I don't see at this point a reason it makes a whole lot of sense for me." - 30 Nov


#20

Unfortunately for us Rubio fans, he is a citizen, but not a natural born citizen as required by the Constitution. Even though he was born here, both his parents emigrated from Cuba