T Nation

Let's Talk Michigan/Super Tuesday!

I put these together, because I think that both contest will define as much the direction of the GOP as it does defining the eventual GOP Presidential Nominee.

While Romney can lose Michigan and still get the eventual nomination…it would be a HUGE blow to his campaign.

Also; Super Tuesday (which will be 1 week after Michigan) “moves South”, which will favor Santorum.

Can Romney merely unleash a negative ad campaign on Santorum like he did Newt to counter Santorum’s recent surge?

Most political observers feel that Santorum simply is not as “easy” a target as Newt. First, it will be almost impossible for Romney to position himself “more Right” of Santorum (“severe” Conservative???); and to move any more “left” would just be handing Santorum the nomination.

What say ye?

Let’s discuss.

Mufasa

For those who need it…just a little Primer on a Primary vs. a Caucus

Primaries are similar to general elections. Voters cast secret ballots at polling places, and can come and go as they please.

Caucuses, however, are longer time commitments.

Voters have to stay throughout the duration of caucus, whether it lasts 15 minutes or several hours.

The votes are in person, face-to-face, and often involve discussion and debate to persuade voters to change their positions.

Caucuses yield lower voter turnout because of the time commitment, but cater to a more “grassroots” campaign style.

(This is most likely why Rick Santorum staged a last-minute surge in Iowa).

Carry On!

Mufasa

And since we’re talking MEECH-igan!

My favorite Desmond Howard “Heisman” pose after smoking Ohio State on a kick off!

(Okay…back to “Michigan/Super Tuesday”!)

Mufasa

I’m interested to see who will win Georgia. I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them.

CS

Newt had been counting on Georgia…and seems confident that he’ll win there.

However, the numbers are showing Santorum ahead.

Mufasa

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
… I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them…
CS[/quote]

Agree.

And Santorum is sticking to his guns.

I’m unclear at this point what Romney’s strategy should/could be. As I said earlier, there is NO moving “furthur Right” of Santorum…and attacking him with ads (like was done with Newt) will simply not work.

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
… I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them…
CS[/quote]

Agree.

And Santorum is sticking to his guns.

I’m unclear at this point what Romney’s strategy should/could be. As I said earlier, there is NO moving “furthur Right” of Santorum…and attacking him with ads (like was done with Newt) will simply not work.

Mufasa[/quote]

Santorum is the definition of “right-wing.”

As for Romney’s strategy, it’ll be more of the same. He’s a moderate liberal disguised as a Republican.

CS

I hope Santorum wins Michigan (Mitt’s home state) just for the embarrassment it would cause Mitt, but it doesn’t really matter who wins… the whole field is exceptionally weak. If McCain was running, he would win the nomination again (and we know how that turned out last time). Getting Santorum into the national spotlight now is fine, because everyone will remember what a dope he was. Remember when he grandstanded down in Florida for the Terri Schiavo case?

Only a fair weather conservative thinks that politicians should meddle in a private family medical decision with their doctor. Why the hell did the idiot Senator from Pennsylvania fly down to Florida to hold press conferences on the matter? You guys hate it when Jesse Jackson does stuff like that, but you gave Santorum a pass. He’s also a flimsy conservative in several other respects, but far be it for me to care about that. The main thing is that Santorum is an absolutely horrible candidate for 2012.

He’s a former lobbyist (for the WWE, perhaps you are familiar with this family values organization). Santorum also has ties to convicted criminal Jack Abramoff that were never completely investigated. In an era where people are sick to death of ethics violations, I’m sure that question will come up again in the Fall, if Santorum wins the nomination. Santorum also has almost no charisma, and he’ll look terrible in comparison with Obama. The best thing Santorum has going for him is that his name isn’t Mitt Romney.

Hey ZEB!!! As you can see, Santorum drives us Liberals crazy! So I hope you vote for him! Send him a campaign donation! LOL.

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
… I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them…
CS[/quote]

Agree.

And Santorum is sticking to his guns.

I’m unclear at this point what Romney’s strategy should/could be. As I said earlier, there is NO moving “furthur Right” of Santorum…and attacking him with ads (like was done with Newt) will simply not work.

Mufasa[/quote]

Santorum is the definition of “right-wing.”

As for Romney’s strategy, it’ll be more of the same. He’s a moderate liberal disguised as a Republican.

CS[/quote]

You really don’t know what you’re talking about kid. I don’t know of any liberal who cut taxes 19 times as Governor.

Well, CS…it looks like Romney’s “disguise” isn’t working very well with GOP voters!

It’s interesting that the press (INCLUDING Fox) STILL views Romney as the eventual nominee. While that may be true, I think that Michigan and “Super Tuesday” will tell us how long and protracted this fight will be.

And we may see the first modern Brokered convention.

Mufasa

I ran into my son’s martial arts teacher at the Mall yesterday. He’s an independent who is tired of Obama and will vote for almost any republican. The topic turned to politics and his observation was interesting. The first words out of his mouth were, “I would never vote for Santorum…he wants to shove his religion down everyone’s throat…”

As I’ve been saying when it comes to politics perception is far more important than reality. The latest polling data clearly shows that Santorum cannot pull independents.

But if you like Santorum don’t let the reality of him being unacceptable to independents stop you from supporting him and giving Obama a nice big victory!

As for Michigan and Arizona, I’m hoping Romney wins the squeaker in Michigan and of course I think he’ll win Arizona. If he does well in both of those states he wins super Tuesday and it is then over.

and if this primary season continues all the way to the convention the winner will have about $2.97 left to run against Obama.

Nice.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Well, CS…it looks like Romney’s “disguise” isn’t working very well with GOP voters!

It’s interesting that the press (INCLUDING Fox) STILL views Romney as the eventual nominee.

Mufasa[/quote]

FOX may veiw Romney as the eventual nominee but Newt Gingrich has gotten about triple the face time on that network.

One pundit stated that the speech Santorum gave this past weekend in a MegaChurch had a dual effect:

If you are on the Right, it was inspirational…if you are not, it made you cringe…

One thing is for sure…no one is going to question whether or not Santorum is Conservative. Whether or not he is electable is a whole other question.

Mufasa

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
… I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them…
CS[/quote]

Agree.

And Santorum is sticking to his guns.

I’m unclear at this point what Romney’s strategy should/could be. As I said earlier, there is NO moving “furthur Right” of Santorum…and attacking him with ads (like was done with Newt) will simply not work.

Mufasa[/quote]

Santorum is the definition of “right-wing.”

As for Romney’s strategy, it’ll be more of the same. He’s a moderate liberal disguised as a Republican.

CS[/quote]

You really don’t know what you’re talking about kid. I don’t know of any liberal who cut taxes 19 times as Governor. [/quote]

And how substantial where those (Romney Talking Points) 19 tax cuts? They seem more like TARGETED TAX CUTS that liberals favor:

–a biotech manufacturing jobs tax rebate;
–prescription drug and property tax relief for seniors;
–tax breaks for commuters and veterans;
–and a deduction for businesses that install automatic sprinkler systems.
He also extended or made permanent some temporary tax breaks and signed into law two sales tax holidays, each of which lasted a day or two.

Of course no liberal would design and implement a government obtrusive personal mandated health insuramce program like Romneycare.

[quote]ZEB wrote:
I ran into my son’s martial arts teacher at the Mall yesterday. He’s an independent who is tired of Obama and will vote for almost any republican. The topic turned to politics and his observation was interesting. The first words out of his mouth were, “I would never vote for Santorum…he wants to shove his religion down everyone’s throat…”

As I’ve been saying when it comes to politics perception is far more important than reality. The latest polling data clearly shows that Santorum cannot pull independents.

But if you like Santorum don’t let the reality of him being unacceptable to independents stop you from supporting him and giving Obama a nice big victory!

As for Michigan and Arizona, I’m hoping Romney wins the squeaker in Michigan and of course I think he’ll win Arizona. If he does well in both of those states he wins super Tuesday and it is then over.

and if this primary season continues all the way to the convention the winner will have about $2.97 left to run against Obama.

Nice.[/quote]

If Romney does get the nomination, which I highly doubt, for every independent vote he gains he will lose at least 2 conservative votes

[quote]Razorslim wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
I ran into my son’s martial arts teacher at the Mall yesterday. He’s an independent who is tired of Obama and will vote for almost any republican. The topic turned to politics and his observation was interesting. The first words out of his mouth were, “I would never vote for Santorum…he wants to shove his religion down everyone’s throat…”

As I’ve been saying when it comes to politics perception is far more important than reality. The latest polling data clearly shows that Santorum cannot pull independents.

But if you like Santorum don’t let the reality of him being unacceptable to independents stop you from supporting him and giving Obama a nice big victory!

As for Michigan and Arizona, I’m hoping Romney wins the squeaker in Michigan and of course I think he’ll win Arizona. If he does well in both of those states he wins super Tuesday and it is then over.

and if this primary season continues all the way to the convention the winner will have about $2.97 left to run against Obama.

Nice.[/quote]

If Romney does get the nomination, which I highly doubt, for every independent vote he gains he will lose at least 2 conservative votes
[/quote]

Yeah, I agree those two conservatives will be voting for Obama. No, wait I guess they won’t will they? Then they’ll stay home. Hmm…with a chance to oust Obama from the White House? Nope they’re voting for Romney. You are either not experienced enough, or simply don’t understand Presidential history. Or, maybe both.

Tell me other than Ronald Reagan how many true Conservatives have been elected to the Presidency in modern times?

The answer, NONE!

And do you know why?

The answer is that what might look good to the right during a primary NEVER EVER looks good to the average voter during the general election. Case in point Barry Goldwater the conservative candidate for the republican party in 1964. The result? He lost in the biggest popular landslide in the history of the country! But…he sure was loved by the primary voters.

If Santorum or Gingrich are nominated Obama has the opportunity to run as the moderate, right down the middle and he will win!

Now go read some Presidential history before you post again.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Razorslim wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
I ran into my son’s martial arts teacher at the Mall yesterday. He’s an independent who is tired of Obama and will vote for almost any republican. The topic turned to politics and his observation was interesting. The first words out of his mouth were, “I would never vote for Santorum…he wants to shove his religion down everyone’s throat…”

As I’ve been saying when it comes to politics perception is far more important than reality. The latest polling data clearly shows that Santorum cannot pull independents.

But if you like Santorum don’t let the reality of him being unacceptable to independents stop you from supporting him and giving Obama a nice big victory!

As for Michigan and Arizona, I’m hoping Romney wins the squeaker in Michigan and of course I think he’ll win Arizona. If he does well in both of those states he wins super Tuesday and it is then over.

and if this primary season continues all the way to the convention the winner will have about $2.97 left to run against Obama.

Nice.[/quote]

If Romney does get the nomination, which I highly doubt, for every independent vote he gains he will lose at least 2 conservative votes
[/quote]

Yeah, I agree those two conservatives will be voting for Obama. No, wait I guess they won’t will they? Then they’ll stay home. Hmm…with a chance to oust Obama from the White House? Nope they’re voting for Romney. You are either not experienced enough, or simply don’t understand Presidential history. Or, maybe both.

Tell me other than Ronald Reagan how many true Conservatives have been elected to the Presidency in modern times?

The answer, NONE!

And do you know why?

The answer is that what might look good to the right during a primary NEVER EVER looks good to the average voter during the general election. Case in point Barry Goldwater the conservative candidate for the republican party in 1964. The result? He lost in the biggest popular landslide in the history of the country! But…he sure was loved by the primary voters.

If Santorum or Gingrich are nominated Obama has the opportunity to run as the moderate, right down the middle and he will win!

Now go read some Presidential history before you post again.

[/quote]

Did LBJ’s election having nothing to do with him being a sitting president finishing the term of a popular president who was assassinated in office, who promised to carry out his legacy and also promised not to send any of our troops into viet nam (The Big Lie)

With the exception of Regan, as you pointed out all the Repub candidates since then have been moderate to liberal republicans and either lost (Bush 41 (2nd term), Dole, McCain) or won very close election (Bush 43). I’ll let you educate me on Richard Nixon. Romney would just follow this trend in that he will lose or barely eek out a electoral college win. He certainly will create much less enthusiasm with the base than George W who barely beat a charismatically handicapped Algore (I know how much you like to rank the charisma factor)

here is an article I know you will enjoy

Haha, you’re kidding me right? Romney is the biggest RINO out there.

CS

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
… I think Santorum will because of he’s the most conservative candidate out of all of them…
CS[/quote]

Agree.

And Santorum is sticking to his guns.

I’m unclear at this point what Romney’s strategy should/could be. As I said earlier, there is NO moving “furthur Right” of Santorum…and attacking him with ads (like was done with Newt) will simply not work.

Mufasa[/quote]

Santorum is the definition of “right-wing.”

As for Romney’s strategy, it’ll be more of the same. He’s a moderate liberal disguised as a Republican.

CS[/quote]

You really don’t know what you’re talking about kid. I don’t know of any liberal who cut taxes 19 times as Governor. [/quote]

I don’t know of any Republican who let’s a version of Obamacare pass in the state he governs over.

CS

[quote]Razorslim wrote:

Did LBJ’s election having nothing to do with him being a sitting president finishing the term of a popular president who was assassinated in office, who promised to carry out his legacy and also promised not to send any of our troops into viet nam (The Big Lie)[/quote]

Some of that certainly helped him. If he had won by say 54% to 46% that would have been a sizable victory and most of it could have been attributed to Kennedy. But when you win with over 61% of the vote there’s a hell of a lot more going on than that. Goldwater’s conservatisim scared the independents and women. Just as Gingrich and Santorum’s will do. The press is already painting Santorum as a right wing nut. Did you catch the latest news on Santorum questioning Obama’s faith? If you read what he said he was not quesioning his faith, but the MSLM did the twist and shout on him and BANG…before you know it Santorum is trying make everyone a Christian. Santorum will get beaten by Obama by about 10 points, Gingrich even worse as he also has scandle in his background both personal and professional.

It’s not me who likes the idea of charisma playing a role, it’s the general electorate who likes charisma. I only note it and point it out to those who live in dream land and think that the masses actually vote mostly on the issues. Everyone loses (or wins) for a reason. If you have a middle of the road candidate who has the charisma of Micheal Dukakis that candidate is going to lose. But, we have seen what a candidate with lots of charisma, like Ronald Reagan, can do even though he was the most conservative nominee.

Far lefty’s usually don’t win either Obama being the exception and I think it’s obvious why. A 10 on the charisma scale, 8 years of Bush being bashed by the MSLM, and a charismaless candidate named John McCain.

Middle of the road candidates win, at least those who have charisma and are able to communicate in a pleasant comfortable manner. History doesn’t lie you only need to read more of it to understand who wins and who loses. Romney/Obama would be a close race, I’m not sure who would win but Obama has the advantage for certain.