T Nation

Let's Talk Florida

One other thing about the Immigration policy:

I think Romney was “blind-sided” when Newt offered solutions “left” of his.

Look…Newt is a VERY skilled Politician. And right now, he is beating Romney at the “political game”.

However; as I said earlier, Newt in the past has been his own worst enemy when he started getting cocky and confident.

Time will tell.

Mufasa

[quote]Sloth wrote:

Florida is a CLOSED primary.[/quote]

Well one thing we know for sure about the Florida primary results, Ron Paul’s numbers will be in the toilet based on this one fact alone.

Which is why he’s skipping it entirely and focusing on Nevada, Colorado etc.

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
Which is why he’s skipping it entirely and focusing on Nevada, Colorado etc.[/quote]

Are you saying that Ron Paul’s name will not be on the ballot?

No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
One other thing about the Immigration policy:

I think Romney was “blind-sided” when Newt offered solutions “left” of his.
[/quote]

I don’t think I would characterize it as such. I remember the debate where Newt set out his position. I remember Bachmann and Romney going crazy on him in response. Maybe not Bachmann, but Romney certainly thought he was blindsiding Gingrich. “Ah, Speaker, it would appear that I out right-wing you!” Oddly enough, the audience gave him some applause.


Laying it out.

Mitt playing right wing hard nose, followed by Gingrich reply.

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida. [/quote]

That means on election night his name will be in last place. That he didn’t campaign there does mean something. But ultimately it’s another last place finish for Paul.

Honestly, I think we’re all screwed. If Mitt gets nominated, then he has a fighting chance, but really, is he going to be any different than Obama? No, not by a long shot. I would absolutely love to see Obama lose so he can stop fucking this country over, but if anyone other than Romney gets nominated, then it won’t happen.

I like Newt, but he’s too “right-wing” for many people. His appeal to the Latino voters is fake and he doesn’t believe in what he says, if you ask me.

CS

And it begins…
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/161267070040936449

Folks, Romney has been advertising here for weeks. His super pac for over a month. Near weekly anti-Newt flyers in my mail. He’s already poured money into Florida, in both attack and pro-Romney ads. Only just this week did I get the first piece of pro-Gingrich literature in the mail. And Newt is now tied with Romney in the first poll. Buckle up.

Newt 29
Mitt 25
http://thefloridaprimary.com/ginrich-big-bump-florida-primary-poll/

While looking around for figures; Daily Beast claims Romney has spent 7 million in just TV ads. Newt? $800. No, I didn’t forget any zeros. One thing this article is wrong about, Jeb just announced that he will not be endorsing anyone, that he will stay neutral. The expectation WAS that Romney was going to get his endorsement. Oof.

Insider Advantage 34-26, Gingrich.

Edit: The breakdown. Beating Romney among whites, hispanics, blacks, seasoned citizens, yoots, and women.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida. [/quote]

That means on election night his name will be in last place. That he didn’t campaign there does mean something. But ultimately it’s another last place finish for Paul.[/quote]

Most likely yes. Isn’t Florida a winner takes all state anyway though?

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida. [/quote]

That means on election night his name will be in last place. That he didn’t campaign there does mean something. But ultimately it’s another last place finish for Paul.[/quote]

Most likely yes. Isn’t Florida a winner takes all state anyway though?[/quote]

Oh, he knows that.

He also knows that Pauls campaign does not focus on winner takes all states if they are expensive to campaign in and he has little chance of winning them.

He even knows that Gingrichs surge means that the delegates Paul accumulates in those other states are worth more.

Furthermore he knows that the polls predicting Pauls performance are highly questionable at best if he actually campaigns in a state, because his voters do not come from the “likely to vote Republican” pool.

But… Zeb acknowledges reality only as long as it does not clash with his PDS.

Oh my.

2012 Florida Republican Primary
Florida GOP Primary: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

[quote]Sloth wrote:
Oh my.

2012 Florida Republican Primary
Florida GOP Primary: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/2012_florida_republican_primary[/quote]

WOW…if that’s the case Romney is in deep crap. And so is our country because Obama will be in for another four years. Eh…he’d of probably beaten Romney anyway but at least it would not have been by the massive beating that Gignrich will get. And worse yet there will be coat tails in such a beating. How many seats will we lose in congress? Hey maybe it can be a replay of 08’ and the dems will control all three branches – Wouldn’t that be great? That would show those mainstream republicans that they can’t push you around!

No problem…I’m digging in for another four years of Obama. I’m thinking it will be pretty free wheeling socialism as there is no electorate to answer to.

Should be fun Sloth I hope you enjoy it –

And by the way since when does your perfect Mr. Gingrich get to wear the banner of conservative believing in global warming. He and Nancy Pelosi had nice time doing that commercial huh? Yeah…But he doesn’t believe that now right?

I guess he changed his mind, or as you would call it FLIP-FLOPPED!!

Sit back and watch the dems unleash a barrage of political blows staring the disgraced Speaker in one commercial after another regarding his ethics violations.

In a way you’re right, Romney was too timid, too nice of a guy to handle someone like Gingrich. But the DNC knows what to do. OUCH I don’t even want to watch it, but I will and I will remind you every step of the way that I said Gingrich would get a beating.

I hope he tells off the moderator tonight and gets another standing ovation from the choir. Having the right wing of the party standing and applauding will sure show those dems we mean business.

:slight_smile:

Enjoy it Sloth because you ain’t gonna like what Obama does to him.

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida. [/quote]

That means on election night his name will be in last place. That he didn’t campaign there does mean something. But ultimately it’s another last place finish for Paul.[/quote]

Most likely yes. Isn’t Florida a winner takes all state anyway though?[/quote]

Yeah, and it always looks good to finish in last place in these states–Oh wait no it doesn’t. But then you knew Paul wasn’t going to win Right?

You’re young and impressionable but not stupid RIGHT?

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Gaius Octavius wrote:
No. He and Mitt are on the ballot in all 50 states(Santorum and Newt are not). He just won’t be focusing time nor money on campaigning in Florida. [/quote]

That means on election night his name will be in last place. That he didn’t campaign there does mean something. But ultimately it’s another last place finish for Paul.[/quote]

Most likely yes. Isn’t Florida a winner takes all state anyway though?[/quote]

Yeah, and it always looks good to finish in last place in these states–Oh wait no it doesn’t. But then you knew Paul wasn’t going to win Right?

You’re young and impressionable but not stupid RIGHT? [/quote]

It doesn’t matter nearly as much as you make it out to. Gingrich finished fourth in NH and Iowa but went on to win SC. Paul finishing fourth in Florida would be pretty much inconsequential, especially considering he’s not relying on the mainstream media for his campaigning.
And I’m neither impressionable nor stupid.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

Should be fun Sloth I hope you enjoy it –

[/quote]

One problem with your underlying implication, I haven’t even had a chance to vote yet. Furthermore, I distribute no political newsletters, or maintain a political blog, radio station, or news channel, from which I would’ve turned this primary against Romney. In short, I haven’t lost this for Romney. Romney lost it for Romney.

Gallup today; Romney’s lead in national polling down to 1%. And that’s a five day average…

$7 million in TV ads compared to $800 here in Florida, Romney v. Newt. And Romney is on the verge of losing what was supposed to be the state of his coronation. And at this rate, losing decisively. Scary part? Santorum, Newt’s close friend, whose base despises Romney for his attack ads (Like Perry’s and Newt’s), hasn’t even dropped yet. If he drops, Newt gets that support by a large margin. At this point he doesn’t even need it, but if/when Santorum bows out…Oof.

Vast monetary advantage, super-dooper, high powered campaign team. The support of much of the cocktail-party establishment commentariat (NRO, for example). The kid’s gloves approach from the MSM. Yet, look what’s happened, regardless?

You can buy the finest bread, cheese, fresh veggies, and condiments, slap it all around a turd…Have the finest, most respected, head chefs tell you this turd sandwich is INEVITABLY a great sandwich…but to the customers, it’s still a turd sandwich.

No Zeb, I’m no one influential. The republican base, the customers who’ve sampled the offered cuisine of Cafe-Primary, have rejected the high-priced, finally dressed, turd sandwich on their own.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

And by the way since when does your perfect Mr. Gingrich get to wear the banner of conservative…[/quote]

I won’t be voting for Gingrich. Well, if Santorum drops before the Fl. primary, I’ll give him a primary vote. But not the general election.

Edit: I first said this some time back before our recent back and forth kicked up. I gave Gingrich brief consideration, passed by him, and began to settle for Santorum.