T Nation

Let's Talk Florida


SC is over; Newt won; and it's on to the land of Sunshine, Hotties and Retirement.

Quite frankly guys; I think Newt has caused all "Common Wisdom" to be thrown out the window (at least with MY limited knowledge of politics!)

What I do know is that Florida is much larger than SC, thus requiring a) better organization and b) more money to hit all the major markets.

Who will retirees favor?

What about the Cuban/Latino Vote?

What about the Jewish Vote?

Things that "played well" in SC may not play so well in Florida; but is ANYONE ready to count Newt out? (Not me!)

Let's Discuss!



As an independent, the Republican party of today has really turned me off. That said, the Democrats are offering Obama, a president I feel as of right now may be the worst president in the history of the US. I don't like Romney or the Newt, but I certainly cannot stand the thought of another 4 years of failure from Obama.

I think the smart Republicans that want Obama out would put their support to Ron Paul. I'm not saying this because I'm a hipster in on the "Revolution" but because I feel if the race came down to Ron Paul vs Obama, you'd have a large majority of the Republicans backing Ron Paul, a large chunk of the independents swept up in the Revolution thing, and a lot of traditional democrats willing to compromise with a more moderate sounding right presented by Ron Paul, instead of voting for someone that disheartened them after his massive "change" movement failed miserably.

If the Race came down to Obama and Newt, you might as well give the race to Obama. Why? Because Newt can't attract anything but a stereotypical Republican and will be crushed with massive smear campaigns that don't even need to be taken out of context to look bad. He's a hypocrite, a lobbyist, a pervert, and a gigantic douche.

I think Romney and Obama would be a closer race for what it's worth, but I could see Obama winning it with more digging into Romney's past business ventures and a smear campaign on them. Why? Because most of America is below middle class right now and Romney symbolizes what a lot of people feel is a problem with America. The 99% thing doesn't help Romney.

So I can see Obama beating Newt easily, and finding a way to beat Romney, but I honestly could not see him beating Ron Paul because Ron would take a significant chunk of Obama's former supporters and keep a tight hold on Republicans.


Let's see I think it's Santorum's turn to win again right?

Seriously, I was thinking about this last night and came up with an interesting parallel between the 1980 republican primary and this one.

In both primaries we had a sitting democratic President who was too far left and couldn't get the economy going. And in 1980 the republicans nominated the most conservative candidate in the race, Ronald Reagan. They did this as a backlash to Jimmy Carter. Fortunately, Reagan had the charisma and communication ability to pull off a victory in the general election even though he was pretty much a right wing candidate. This time around I fear that Newt will continue to win for the very same reasons that Reagan won. The republican primary voters hate Obama so much they are swinging far right. But unlike 1980 Gingrich does not have the gifts that Reagan had. But he does have high negatives--that won't help.




This thing about "smear" Campigns.

After his victory (Newt); I've been watching AND listening to him on TV; and the "Old, egotistical Newt" is TRYING to hide; but the poor man can't help himself.

If history is any indication; (I know, I know....Newt has changed and "seen the light"...); but if history is any indication, Newt...NOT Romney or the President...will end up being his own worst enemy.

When Newt begins to get smug and confident is when he begins to make HUGE mistakes.



It'll be Newt. He went through the multi-million dollar fire (96% of all attack ads from Iowa to recently were aimed at him...yes, there was a smear campaign...Romney's...just ask Santorum and Newt), and clawed his way back to winning every...single...SC...delegate. On a shoestring budget, relative to Mitt. Newt is on fire, the money is undoubtedly flowing once again, etc. They've seen a man raked through the coals, cast down, with little resources to fight back, just knock out a man who only a week ago was supposed to be wrapping up his inevitable coronation with SC and Florida. Obama and his team are billion dollar political warriors. They would reduce Mitt into a stumbling, mumbling, bumbling, shifting mound of jelly. The folks of SC decided to go with the fighter. Newt is the honey-badger.


I heard that Newt wasn't even on the ballot in states totaling 564 delegates. If that's true, doesn't that pretty much disqualify him?


One can only hope.


If we were all to get together and choose one of the worst possible well known political figures to run against Obama surely Newt Gingrich would in the top 3 or 4.


Newt is more like the domesticated American turkey, and less like the honey badger.

Success in the Republican primary is far, far different than success in the presidential election. The RP is mostly Right wing voters, voting for right wing answers, and the right isn't a majority. Essentially, Newt gets a larger % of the votes in a Republican primary than he would in the actual election. Why? Let me put it this way: Good luck finding a large following of independents (The hands down largest group of potential voters) with a guy who cheated on his wife while trying to impeach Clinton for his escapades in cheating, may have left his wife while she was being treated for cancer, left another after she was diagnosed with MS and turned him down on allowing him to have a mistress, that he had for years anyway, then campaigns on the sanctity of marriage.

He also has no chance of capturing the fast growing youth vote.

He has no hopes of luring away traditional Democrats either.

Note: I say "may have left his wife while she was being treated for cancer" because his daughter "shed some light" on this story. It just took her well over a decade to say anything about it, and she tried to "set the record straight" now that her father is running for office, and though the tumor was benign, the divorce came while she had cancer and before they learned it was benign.

I don't believe the daughter. It shouldn't take decades and lots of money for this story to come out if she wasn't just covering imo.


One important point about Florida;

It's a HUGE "entitlement" state, especially MediCAIRE and Social Security. (In other words, there are a lot of retirees there who won't be going out to get a Janitorial Job).

Lecturing voting Seniors is a much different ball-game than slapping around News Commentators.

It will be interesting to see how Newt approaches Florida Seniors.



I predict seniors will be his biggest support.


That may be true, Sloth.

I'm just curious as to what his approach to their concerns will be. It certainly WON'T be a) telling them to get a job and b) calling the President "the Social Security President".



His theme has been that people WOULD rather have jobs than food stamps. It's just that, you know there's no jobs. Or, that people are too broke to retool themselves for a different job. His theme is that people would rather have unemployment insurance provide retraining. Look at his comments about 99 weeks of unemployment being a wasted associate's degree. Match to needed work, sign up with a trainer/employer, learn a needed trade/skillset.

Edit: Seriously, you've had a huge miss on Newt, concerning entitlements and work. Huge. Besides Santorum, he's been speaking directly about those unemployed, lacking the skills to move into new fields. His point has been, THEY WOULD RATHER BE WORKING!


And Santorum has been great on poverty. He's even repeatedly brought up, during economic discussions, the most powerful indicator/support system for socio-economic mobility...The best anti-misery weapon for the impoverished.


A couple of things.

First, Florida is a CLOSED primary. So, no moderates and independents hopping in. Something overlooked.

Latinos. Now this is the interesting part...Mitt ran to the right of Gingrich. The largest GOP-Hispanic organization has already backed Newt, while chastising Mitt! Yet, Newt's position on immigration doesn't seem to be hurting him with the base, either!


Mitt's national lead cut down to 5% according to Gallup.


Among GOP Voters against the other 3 GOP candidates....or against the President?



Let's give Newt credit where credit is due.

His Immigration proposal (that at first drew the wrath of Conservatives); APPEARS fair and even-handed.



Against Newt.