As an independent, the Republican party of today has really turned me off. That said, the Democrats are offering Obama, a president I feel as of right now may be the worst president in the history of the US. I don't like Romney or the Newt, but I certainly cannot stand the thought of another 4 years of failure from Obama.
I think the smart Republicans that want Obama out would put their support to Ron Paul. I'm not saying this because I'm a hipster in on the "Revolution" but because I feel if the race came down to Ron Paul vs Obama, you'd have a large majority of the Republicans backing Ron Paul, a large chunk of the independents swept up in the Revolution thing, and a lot of traditional democrats willing to compromise with a more moderate sounding right presented by Ron Paul, instead of voting for someone that disheartened them after his massive "change" movement failed miserably.
If the Race came down to Obama and Newt, you might as well give the race to Obama. Why? Because Newt can't attract anything but a stereotypical Republican and will be crushed with massive smear campaigns that don't even need to be taken out of context to look bad. He's a hypocrite, a lobbyist, a pervert, and a gigantic douche.
I think Romney and Obama would be a closer race for what it's worth, but I could see Obama winning it with more digging into Romney's past business ventures and a smear campaign on them. Why? Because most of America is below middle class right now and Romney symbolizes what a lot of people feel is a problem with America. The 99% thing doesn't help Romney.
So I can see Obama beating Newt easily, and finding a way to beat Romney, but I honestly could not see him beating Ron Paul because Ron would take a significant chunk of Obama's former supporters and keep a tight hold on Republicans.