T Nation

Lesnar vs Overeem


#1

Havent seen any discussion for this on here, so not sure if there's much interest but here goes.

Been tons of buzz and debate about this fight going around the internet lately, i want to hear some thoughts on how this one plays out.

This is a not a fight i would bet on, just too many variables and interesting circumstances surrounding these two guys squaring off against eachother, especially with it being Overeem's first fight in the UFC. However, i have to pick Overeem. I just cant see Brock being able to hold overeem down and finish him before Reem inevitably lands that huge punch or knee that turns the lights out.

Obviously Brock's defense is lackluster and i believe Reem will find the mark eventually. The other thing that all the sherdog warriors seem to be completely leaving out is the fact that Overeem is not just a kickboxer, but also a very competent grappler in his own right, with good TD's and TDD. And that was BEFORE he became Ubereem.

If Brock had a hard time holding Cain or Couture down and couldnt do any damage to them on the ground, i dont see him steam rolling Overeem either.

However, if Overeem plays it safe too much like in the Werdum fight, i wont be surprised to see brock take a decision.

I also have Cerrone cleaning Diaz's clock


#2

Yeah I would not bet on this fight either. It really could go either way. Watching some of Reems fights I really think he has a low pain tolerance and if Lesnar hits him a few good times it will end quickly. The same could be said for Lesnar as well though. I think Overeem has many advantages but I just don't like the guy.

I agree that Diaz is going down, and in a bad way.


#3

Brock can't rely on size/strength here... I'm not sure if he can win you know but it could go either way.


#4

I agree with you on the overream thing. Brock to me is so over rated. he was gassed after the 1st round with Randy. gassed in 1 round against cain. The only guys i have ever seen brock man handle on the ground was herring and mir. neither are very good on the ground. Mir, while a great submission guy, and will snap anything he gets a hold of, isn't a very good wrestler. so, I feel if brock had trouble with carwins and cains standup, hes in for a world of hurt against the K1 champ. I see overream hitting and hurting him, then stopping him on the ground.

As far as the cerrone/diaz fight. its going to be a 3 round war. diaz has better hands in my opinion. especially in his last fight. he is progressing alot like his brother nick did. his boxing is really starting to improve. i can see this going either way. I think cerrone will have to get this fight to the ground at some point though to win. if he stands the whole time with nate, he will lose.


#5

Well would you look at that, this will probably be the first serious response ive ever given you:

Yes, i am in the same boat on the main event, pretty sure Reem will drop lesnar with a big hook or knee and use follow up strikes on the ground to stop it. However, i dont agree with your assessment of the Cerrone fight. I think Cerrone is going to want to keep this one standing, (although im sure he'll indulge Diaz on the ground if it goes there) but i see Cerrone landing lots of big shots against Diaz, with Nate only giving back some pillow punch combos here and there. Overall, whether Cerrone gets the finish or not, i see him out classing Diaz on the feet.


#6

Yeah, and his size and strength didnt give him an overwhelming advantage against MUCH smaller guys like Cain and Couture. The only guy his size/strength really was a deciding factor in the fight against was Mir, and Mir is a god fucking awful wrestler.

I honestly wont be surprised if Brock never actually manages to get this one to the ground, and Overeem is fucking mean in the clinch, especially at his current weight. I am gonna laugh my ass off if he whips brock to the ground from the clinch like he has so many others.

Not saying that that's exactly how i believe it will play out, but in this fight very little will surprise me other than a Brock standing KO of Reem.


#7

Yeah, even though Brock is dangerous, I see Overeem winning this one by KO in the first couple of rounds. The real interesting fight is the Diaz Cerrone fight, which I expect Cerrone to win with his kickboxing either by TKO or on points.


#8

The only thing that might give Overream problems, is all the troubles hes been having lately. leaving golden glory. His mother being very ill. all this crap about him taking these drug tests. he will be the most tested person in history, after all this is over. I just feel, he has way to much skill to let anything get to him. Plus another big advantage for Overream, is, he has been extremely active this past year. fighting and winning the K1 grand prix and also winning 2 or 3 mma fights. while brock has been layed up, from his illness.

I think people might be under estimating nate diaz though. I can almost guarantee that cerronne will not stop nate. I can see a close decision for cerrrone, however, i will not be surprised if going by nate's last fight against gomey, he wins that fight also.


#9

Once Lesnar starts getting punched in the face, he's going to start turning his head and running. If I had money I'd bet on Overeem. Seems like a pretty safe bet.


#10

Ive been watching the documentaries and press conferences, basically anything i can on Overeem leading up to this fight (as i am a huge fan) and he seems to be in great mental shape, very professional and ready to fight as usual. Im not too worried about his personal issues affecting his performance.

I dont think Cerrone will finish Diaz, though i hope he does cause i cant stand the Diaz bros, but i do think he'll dominate the majority of the fight.


#11

Personally, i like the diaz boys. But I can understand why some might not. The only time i feel overream could be if he was going to be in trouble, would be in the first minute or 2 in the 1st round. I just don't see how lesnar can win. The only guys i have seen him pound out on the ground, was mir. he couldn't stop herring. I remember Fedor beat herring way back, when herring was a really tough dude. Fedor gave him one hell of a beating. Overream is going to be much much harder to get down than mir was. Plus, overream has been training with jarred Rosholt, an incredible college wrestler, brother of jake rosholt. so, im sure overreams wrestling will up to par.


#12

Overeem's been training with a bunch of good grapplers/wrestlers, including Munoz. So he should be about as prepared as he can be within the allotted time frame. And yeah, this is a fight that we will probably know very quickly who's going to win. If Lesnar cant put Reem on his back and keep him there within the first couple minutes it may be a long night for him.


#13

This is one of those "styles make fights" scenarios IMO. We have pretty much a pure wrestler (yes I know he KO'd Randy and knocked down Herring, but as we've seen with his fights against Carwin and Cain he's far from comfortable standing and trading with other big guys) vs a high level striker.

Who wins is going to come down to who can make the other fighter play their game. Reem has not faced any huge wrestlers like Brock up to this point in his career and no matter who he's been wrestling with, he will be at a disadvantage if Brock can make it a wrestling match.

But, as I said before Brock will be at a huge disadvantage if he is forced to stand and strike with Reem, no matter who he has been training striking with.

The longer the fight goes I think the more the odds sway in Brock's favor (due to fatigue slowing down Reem's striking and decreasing his takedown defenses).


#14

Nah it favors Overeem because Lesnar hasn't fought in over a year. I agree that if he can take Overeem down he could win, but I do think Lesnar will be more nervous than usual and gas easier because of the time he hasn't been in the ring.


#15

Well, he tko'd Couture on a lame ref stoppage 'cause he couldn't get up with Lesnar laying on him and giving him noogies. Lesnar's stand up is God awful, and if Overeem hits him he's gonna run away like he always does. But, if Lesnar can put him on his ass or use the cage to his advantage, Overeem's in for a long night. I personally think both guys are way overrated, but Lesnar's the definition of "one trick pony", and if Overeem can land a few flush bombs he'll knock him out.


#16

This is pretty obvious. I think the advantage Overeem has is that Brock is going to have to start on the feet, and its completely up to him to get Reem down, and also hold him down, which Brock seems to have trouble doing against anyone with half decent wrestling. Brock also seems to get discouraged if he can't hold a guy down (Velasquez anyone?). I dont see this being one of those fights where Brock takes Reem down once and instantly spells the beginning of the end.

I do agree that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Brock. Not because i believe that his conditioning is superior, but if Overeem cant get his hands on Lesnar's face in the first 2 rounds, he's either doing something wrong, or he's spending all his time on his back or defending TD's.


#17

Agree mostly with what you've said here, but you really think Randy would argue that stoppage? He got clobbered, great white ape style. Brock wasnt even on top of Couture, he was next to him with one arm on his body, and the other pounding away.


#18

Maybe, and ring rust is a big question in this fight.

But the longer the fight goes the slower Reem will get and the less chance of him catching Brock with a big strike and KO'ing him. A longer fight also probably means more grinding up against the cage or on the ground which again favors the wrestler.

Brock isn't exactly known for his Chin, so it's not like a long fight is likely to involve the two fighters standing and trading strikes for 5 rounds.


#19

Haha, probably not. The ref made the right move as Couture couldn't defend himself, but he probably could've taken those noogies for a full round as they didn't seem to be doing any appreciable damage.


#20

You are right that the fight will start standing, but I don't think that Brock is going to have the same trouble keeping Reem down that he did keeping Velasquez down. Cain is an all American wrestler and has an unbelievable gas tank for a HW. Overeem is no where near the caliber wrestler that Cain is and even if he's able to fight back to his feet the first time, the longer the fight goes the greater the chance will be that Brock will be able to get him down and keep him there.

If Brock doesn't get caught early and makes this fight a grinder (which he should) I see him beating Reem.

Right, the longer fight would theoretically mean that Overeem is not landing strikes on Brock (meaning that the two are grinding against the cage or on the ground, which favors Brock's style more than Allistair's), thus advantage Brock. An early stoppage likely means that Overeem lands a big shot and either Ko's Brock or TKO's him.