T Nation

Latest Zogby Poll

The latest Zogby poll shows Kerry ahead in 16 of 18 battleground states.

[quote]turbot33 wrote:
The latest Zogby poll shows Kerry ahead in 16 of 18 battleground states.
[/quote]

Zogby’s state-by-state polls - which the Wall Street Journal puts together in a truly wonderful site, in which you can get all sorts of useful info by clicking on the map of a particular state from a map of the U.S. - are basically worthless, as they are based on internet polling data. The self-selection bias inherent in an internet poll makes such data the next worst thing to nothing at all. It’s really too bad – the site itself deserves better data.

Polls are worthless generally, anyway.

Check out the futures markets at http://www.tradesports.com

Damn –

I can’t copy the information from the WSJ site on the Zogby battleground poll methodology. There are serious self-selection problems here. I’m going to actually type some of the methodology info:

“Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company’s website as well as other websites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who register are asked to furnish personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examines the data and contacts individuals by telephone to confirm the information.”

The sample isn’t a random sample of the desired population (meaning registered voters, likely voters, etc.).

According to this website, Bush is toast:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

You need 270 electoral votes to win, Kerry is projected to have over 300 and Bush is projected to have 211. That would explain the smell of desperation from the GOP.

But I expect a HUGE bump for Bush, after he outlines his fabulous “ownership” plank at the upcoming convention.

Maybe unemployed people can “own” their own food stamps accounts?

Bush should be able to get a 10 to 15 point bump in the polls next week.

[quote]Lumpy wrote:
According to this website, Bush is toast:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

You need 270 electoral votes to win, Kerry is projected to have over 300 and Bush is projected to have 211. That would explain the smell of desperation from the GOP.

But I expect a HUGE bump for Bush, after he outlines his fabulous “ownership” plank at the upcoming convention.

Maybe unemployed people can “own” their own food stamps accounts?

Bush should be able to get a 10 to 15 point bump in the polls next week.[/quote]

I’ve seen this too. More data-quality problems. It’s really tough and expensive to get good data on a state-by-state basis. No one is going to put together good quality polling data for these types of projections until closer to the election.

Until then, this is only a step above pure speculation.

Lumpy:

You’re at least partially correct!

Bush may very well get a 10 to 15 point bump from his convention (I think it will be less). Which is better than the bump that Kerry got from his convention…Oh that’s right Kerry didn’t get a bump…Hmm I wonder why? Could it be that the undecideds and independents don’t want him?

President Bush will win this election! Wanna bet Lump?