T Nation

Latest Polling Information Reveals....

Those who know me know that I place the most stock in two polling companies, Rasumussen and Gallup. I feel that these are the two most accurate for a number of reasons. The rest of the polls are merely entertainment at best and misleading at worst.

With that said the most important polling to watch are the swing state polling, also referred to battle ground states. They include:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. For a combined total of 146 electoral votes. These are the states that will decide who wins the race.

As of today Mitt Romney has taken a 50-46 lead over Obama in these important swing states.

The article states in part:

[quote]
This marks the first time that Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states. Obama reached the 50% mark again on Wednesday, but Romney bounced back as responses since Tuesdayâ??s presidential debate entered the mix. Because this survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, just over half the responses in todayâ??s update still come from before that debate. Tomorrowâ??s update will be the first in which the majority of the responses follow the most recent debate.[/quote]

It appears that not only the first debate but the second debate helped Romney as well. There is a possibility that the 5% that he currently has in these states could be increased when the other half of the polling data gained after the second debate is revealed. The first half certainly helped him!

In 2008, Obama won these states by 53% to 46% virtually identical to his national margin.

I’m sure that everyone is aware by now that Gallup has Romney up by 52% to 45% nationally.

Below is a map of what took place during the 2008 Presidential election below. Hold your mouse over a state to see how much the candidate won by. Click on a state to see specifics such as county by county results. This map is odd because if it’s in red that means Obama won it, blue McCain won it. As we all know red is usually republican and blue democrat. Other than that little anomaly you can see clearly where Romney needs to win and how close McCain was to winning some of the swing states (not very in many).

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php

I think that there is a lot of wishful thinking going on by many.

The Election will not be nearly as close as the pundits are saying.

I don’t think Romney will win with a landslide; nor will his win be historic; but I think that the margin of win will be “comfortable”.

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
I think that there is a lot of wishful thinking going on by many.

The Election will not be nearly as close as the pundits are saying.

I don’t think Romney will win with a landslide; nor will his win be historic; but I think that the margin of win will be “comfortable”.

Mufasa [/quote]

With something like 17 days to go in a Presidential election anything can happen. Even a week is a life time.

Remember what I said about an eleventh hour surprise?

You honestly think Obama is going to give up power that easily?

I think you underestimate the chosen one.

But with that said, yes Romney has definitely surged. And it is a broad base surge. Not just with his base but in virtually every demographic. And in most parts of the country.

That should worry Obama and company. But this election is still a toss up. Until you see Romney heading into places like New York to campaign it’s still a horse race.

Mufasa,

Just so I understand you correctly, because I feel that I think similarly to you…you are saying that Mitty will win by a humble margin of victory ?

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Mufasa,

Just so I understand you correctly, because I feel that I think similarly to you…you are saying that Mitty will win by a humble margin of victory ?[/quote]

Yes…not huge (like the Mid-Terms); and I doubt historic numbers.

But not some win with only a 1-2 % margin.

Each and everyday; (and just about every post on “PWI”); is a reminder to me just how deep, strong and motivated the “Not Obama” vote is.

Mufasa

Unfortunately- swing state polling tends to have a huge error term- so they tend to be MUCH less reliable than the national numbers- which tend to have significantly larger Ns.

RCP weekly average has Obama up by 0.1 as of this afternoon. As I have argued many times, the bigger the N, the more reliable the measure- which is why any one poll is not the target to watch. Once the post 2nd debate data rolls, I think it will be Obama by 3%.

Gallup is alone on the island with a +6 for Romney.

jnd

[quote]jnd wrote:
Unfortunately- swing state polling tends to have a huge error term- so they tend to be MUCH less reliable than the national numbers- which tend to have significantly larger Ns.

RCP weekly average has Obama up by 0.1 as of this afternoon. As I have argued many times, the bigger the N, the more reliable the measure- which is why any one poll is not the target to watch. Once the post 2nd debate data rolls, I think it will be Obama by 3%.

Gallup is alone on the island with a +6 for Romney.

jnd[/quote]

LOL…if you want to talk about being alone on an island you keep clinging to that Obama up by 3% nonsense. Much of the polling data were in after the second debate and it only got worse for Obama.

Look, he may very well win a second term but let’s put the polling in the proper perspective. Romney has had momentum since the first debate and the second debate has not stopped it.

Perhaps Obama will turn the tide in the third debate. That is certainly possible. But as of right now, if the election were held at this very moment Romney wins.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Mufasa,

Just so I understand you correctly, because I feel that I think similarly to you…you are saying that Mitty will win by a humble margin of victory ?[/quote]

Yes…not huge (like the Mid-Terms); and I doubt historic numbers.

But not some win with only a 1-2 % margin.

Each and everyday; (and just about every post on “PWI”); is a reminder to me just how deep, strong and motivated the “Not Obama” vote is.

Mufasa[/quote]

I tend to agree.

While it does not matter, here in California, Romney gained 8 points (yet still lags by 12 points). Our hatred for state Dems has helped shift to the national stage.

Much of the polling also assumes the turnout from the 2008 election, and that will not be the case, especially for Obama.

Another interesting situation developing out here in Los Scandalous…

The Leftist Los Angeles Times is going bankrupt, a potential buyer is Rupert Murdoch, who is said to also be eyeing the Chicago Tribune.

It seems that Leftism has led to zero readership. I am curious to see the narrative change should Murdoch buy these 2 media sources.

[quote]jnd wrote:

Gallup is alone on the island with a +6 for Romney.

jnd[/quote]

Weren’t they recently sued by the DOJ after arguing with Axelrod about their polling methods?

I believe David wanted them to change, and they basically told him to shit in a hat, so the government sued gallop for some “unrelated” fluffed billings.

I wonder if they are sticking their collective finger up at Axelrod and the whitehouse over this.

This isn’t a good sign for team O… NBC/WSJ has been very kind to team O thus far.

Tie=Romney Win

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Tie=Romney Win

Mufasa[/quote]

I think so as well. Given even the head of the DNC in Iowa has been on record saying no one is as enthusiastic as 2008…

They have our Mayor out in Iowa, talking about how Obama deferred the deportations of the illegal kids, you know you have hit rock bottom on talking points, also dictated by a buffoon who failed the Bar Exam 4 times.

I dont trust polls all that much and think the only way to find out who is the winner is to wait to after the election. I base this on the last couple of parliament elections here in Norway where the party I vote was in the paraliament according to the polls, but at the real election they didnt get in. This makes me not trust polling that much.

[quote]florelius wrote:
I dont trust polls all that much and think the only way to find out who is the winner is to wait to after the election. I base this on the last couple of parliament elections here in Norway where the party I vote was in the paraliament according to the polls, but at the real election they didnt get in. This makes me not trust polling that much.

[/quote]

How many people actually get polled anyhow? 1000 maybe?

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Tie=Romney Win

Mufasa[/quote]

I think so as well. Given even the head of the DNC in Iowa has been on record saying no one is as enthusiastic as 2008…
[/quote]

And Romney CLEARLY has the momentum.

Mufasa

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]florelius wrote:
I dont trust polls all that much and think the only way to find out who is the winner is to wait to after the election. I base this on the last couple of parliament elections here in Norway where the party I vote was in the paraliament according to the polls, but at the real election they didnt get in. This makes me not trust polling that much.

[/quote]

How many people actually get polled anyhow? 1000 maybe?[/quote]

I worked a few years back for a polling/statistic company as a summer job. Our job was to call people and ask them about products etc and the political polling was one of the opening general questions before we started the real questions about some brand, product etc. Anyways to your question I seem to remember that in a typical poll we would ask 15000 people. I can be wrong though since its many years ago.

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]florelius wrote:
I dont trust polls all that much and think the only way to find out who is the winner is to wait to after the election. I base this on the last couple of parliament elections here in Norway where the party I vote was in the paraliament according to the polls, but at the real election they didnt get in. This makes me not trust polling that much.

[/quote]

How many people actually get polled anyhow? 1000 maybe?[/quote]

I got polled last week.

Not about the Presidential Election, but a state wide issue on raising taxes.

I made it clear to the phone interviewer, to write me down as “HELL TO THE FUCK NO, DON’T TOUCH MY TAXES…”

She replied with, “YOU ARE SAYING THE SAME SHIT AS 80% OF ALL YOU MOTHER FUCKERS IN CALIFORNIA…”

I replied with … :slight_smile: