Also, you don´t actually have to have him create anything, if he tears enough godawful things down, like Obamacare, well, that would be nice and clear the way for some much needed reforms.
Plus, the idea of Hillary in jail gives me a justice boner and I get these rarely, if ever.
You were correct. Congrats to the all of the Trumpers. Let’s hope that the country will get over this nasty year-long election and begin to come together to create new paths for success for all.
He was wrong in the primary. Really wrong. And he’s actually written a column about it since…
In the general election, I don’t quite think I would say that he was wrong, because for statisticians “right” and “wrong” are not such binary concepts. I wrote a little about this in one of the other election threads…
For reference, here is the article Nate posted on election day:
Most people read this headline and say “Well, he said most of the outcomes come up Clinton, and Trump won, ergo Nate Silver was wrong” - which is not really accurate. The article acknowledges that there is a wide range of outcomes and gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, and as explained here…
“The goal of a probabilistic model is not to provide deterministic predictions (“Clinton will win Wisconsin”) but instead to provide an assessment of probabilities and risks.”
It’s fun to take potshots at the nerds who were “wrong” about Trump, but the 538 models weren’t as “wrong” as everyone is making them out to be. At one end of the possible range of outcomes was a landslide for Hillary; in the middle was a close win for Hillary; and at the other end was a narrow win for Trump. We ended up at that “other end” considering that it’s basically a dead-heat in the popular vote, and a matter of pulling out all of the key states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) that were extremely close.
Trump’s win (or any Electoral-popular-vote split) like a football team that gets to the playoffs by going 11-5 with four blowout losses and eight wins by a TD or less. Trump didn’t get landslide wins in many states and he lost a couple blowouts, but he won all of the close ones.
One other thing - people can slash and burn the pollsters for getting it wrong, but I believe I read somewhere that Team Trump’s own final numbers had him with a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Meaning, no one using data to predict saw this coming.
(And I don’t count candidates saying they got a feeling they are going to shock the world regardless of what the polls say as predicting victory - of course they are going to say that.)
I’ll see if I can find that article, I think I’m quoting correctly.
Can’t have accurate polls when people refuse to take it, or don’t tell the truth about their vote. @Mufasa was ahead of the game in expecting a lot of closet Trump supporters, but I don’t think anyone knew it was that widespread.
Frank Luntz said that not only were a lot of people just not saying who they were going to Vote…many just flat-out lied.
Also; there seems to be a feeling that “regular” candidates under more “normal” circumstances than this election would still benefit from metrics, Polls and a ground game.
Trump was far from being a “regular” candidate…and this was far from being a normal election.
There were just far too many people I ran into who would either whisper…or make some joke followed by a strained laugh…or would pull me to the side and say they were voting for Trump.
Couple this with 20,000 PLUS rallies of mostly pissed-off white folks…some of which were last minute in nature… and it all just wasn’t adding up that Clinton was some kind of sure bet.
The huge rallies at the end had me thinking his turnout would be huge. Also, seeing how much we saw of President Obama, Michelle Obama, Slick Willy, Biden… I started thinking she needed all them because her pantsuit was weak at bringing out voters.
Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton herself have stated that it’s time to move on and support the new President.
That’s how Democracy works.
As I looked at those crowds, they seemed populated by a lot of young people.
The way to protest is to Vote…but since Civics and Government classes are either being deleted or diluted with Bullshit…they wouldn’t know that, I guess…
A lot of people are talking about how Trump won, but I see it more like Clinton lost. 4 million fewer democratic voters and 1.2 million fewer GOP voters is a low turnout year, both candidates sucked.
Trump got roughly 1 million less votes than Romney (as the numbers stand now). I think a non-Trump candidate would’ve dominated as Clinton was just that bad, and even with Trump’s flaws he still squeaked it out.
The GOP still has some serious issues it needs to work out. Unless Paul Ryan can contain the dumpster fire of Trump, I think it hurts the GOP in the long term. If Trump can be contained, there could be some good new policies of the next four years. Few (if any) were discussed during his campaign, so that seems just as likely as spending us into oblivian, starting a trade war, and letting Putin do whatever he wants.