T Nation

It Ain't Over 'Till...The Countdown


#1

Just thought I would start this thread since the other threads have become long; there have been major hijacks (but…GREAT discussion); and the election is just 3 FREAKIN’ DAYS AWAY…!

My thoughts.

It’s become clear by all that I’ve read and listened to, that the ELECTORAL path to Victory by Trump is no longer so improbable.

Am I saying that he will win? No…but his path has gone from “mathematically impossible” to “possible”.

It all boils down to turnout now…

What say 'ye?


#2

HRC/Kaine by 3% points (don’t trifle me with the Electoral College process)- she wins there as well. There are roughly 146,311,000 registered voters, meaning she wins by 4 million+ votes.

jnd


#3

jnd:

By what you’ve seen, read, and felt…what pushes her ahead?

Do you think turnout will make a huge difference in the outcome?


#4

The trend has been going towards Trump all week. She is on the defensive. The polls average out with her having a 1.8 percent lead. A 3% Clinton victory seems unlikely.


#5

I am actually excited about listening to…(and discussing) the “Post Mortem” of this election…especially the difference between what was expected/anticipated…and what actually happens.

To Verne’s point…the trend and overall momentum is definitely with Trump.

He continues to defy “convention” and just about every metric.

Think about it…if someone would have said a year and a half ago that Hillary Clinton would end up in a tight Presidential race with…get ready…Donald Trump???…who in their right mind would have believed it?

And despite an ego that spans at least two continents…I don’t think Trump would have believed it either.


#6

At this point, a Trump victory may be safer/better for the country in the long-term than a Clinton victory.

Clinton needed to CRUSH Trump to gain a mandate and destroy the alt-right from thinking that they have an actual voice.

That doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen.

So, the Republicans need to get their mythical “outsider” who breaks every single expectation that they’ve ever had about him.

Starting with him getting into serious fights with Pence and nominating a pro-abortion Judge for the Supreme Court just to spite the Republicans who tried very hard to fuck him over in the general election.

Seriously, who still believes that Trump is actually a Republican in ideology?

A Clinton presidency will be disastrous, if nothing else than because it just allows the Republicans to continue spewing their vitriol towards her.

Party of traditional values and principles my fucking ass.


#7

I really wonder what it was that got him into the race. Considering that 13 out of the 15 republicans who ran against him were better than he is. I’m not real happy. BUt then 2 out of three who ran against Hilary were better than she is. Its just Sad


#8

Trump is a populist not a Republican. He is much closer to my politics than Hillary is. But I would call him moderately liberal. Not as conservative as Jim Webb


#9

She will win but it would be great if the election is super close. Of how horrible everyone says Donald Trump is what does it say about the other candidate who wins by a small margin?

The problem is I don’t think she will get lower than Clinton 1992 so she won’t break any records for having an unusually low percentage.

What do people think the voter turnout will be like? On one hand many dislike both candidates and may not vote at all, on the other they really hate their opponents candidate so maybe it will be a high turnout because of that?


#10

She has never trailed. Trump has not won a national poll (other than the ridiculous use tracking poll) since July. In my view, trump cannot win. This is not football where a team comes from behind to win with a hail Mary.

Jnd


#11

It can’t end fast enough for me


#12

I don’t share quite the same certitude–there are plenty of polling errors that could resultnin a narrow, very narrow Trump win. It’s just that they won’t. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility mathematically, just not likely and not going to happen.


#13

I think it’s when Obama went after Trump at a White House Correspondents Dinner, he poked the bear and the bear didn’t like it.

I think orange Hitler pulls it off in the end. He is a fighter, he is hungry, and through his decades of management (knowing how to weed out bullshit and bullshitters), he wins. He is an idiot, but has a hidden genius. He has spent nothing compared to Hillary, has almost no ground game to speak of, no political experience whatsoever, and is neck and neck with Hillary.

I had a coach who once said that going against a newbie could be sometimes harder than a seasoned vet because of the unpredictability. Their lack of experience made it hard to attack and defend against. I thought he was nuts when he said this, 7 years ago he was inducted into the College Hall of Fame.


#14

FWIW, it was funny to watch Liberals close to meldown last night on the Bill Maher show. You would think Nov 8 was the last day on Earth if Trump wins by the reactions of these people. The begging and pleading for people to vote Hillary was pathetic. Maher actually apologized for labeling Bush and Romney as being crazy and unhinged.


#15

When someone has been handing you money for years. Publicly insulting them might not be a good idea


#16

Common sense like that has no place here.


#17

Based on my understanding of his views over all the periods except 2015/2016, I’d agree that he’s a moderate liberal.

He’s definitely NOT a social conservative.


#18

The asinine thing is that the black vote is already lower than expected.

Great going there guys. Trump’s rise signals the rise of elements that are directly antithetical to your very existence in the U.S., and yet you don’t vote for Clinton because she’s not Obama?

Hooray.

I fully expect to see massive voting for Trump in the general. The Democrats will be taken completely by surprise.


#19

Definitely don’t disagree with you, jnd…it’s just that I have this “uneasiness” that Trump can.…not will…pull one more victory out…

(Note: I am the first to admit that I have a horrendous track record at predicting an election…)

Yep…I know that we can’t compare winning the GOP nomination with winning the general election…and maybe this is the point that his “luck” (and I mean luck on so many levels…from it being the right time against the right candidate…to tapping into a certain psyche of a segment of the electorate…)…but for me, this guy is hard to easily write off.

We’ll know soon enough, that’s for sure!


#20

Well he fucking should have. Neither of them were fucking crazy or even close to it, and this is what his hyperbole has gotten him. It’s only a few years too late.