T Nation

Iran Second Uranium Enrichment Plant


#1

VIENNA â?? Officials have told The Associated Press that Iran has revealed the existence of a second uranium enrichment plant.

The officials say Iran's announcement was in a letter sent Monday to International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Iran is under three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions for refusing to freeze enrichment, which can make both nuclear fuel and warhead material. It had previously acknowledged having only one such facility.

The government officials â?? one speaking from his European capital outside Vienna, the other a diplomat in Vienna â?? demanded anonymity Friday because their information was confidential.


#2

I think it may have been HEDO who said it first...

Expect a strike from Israel within the year.

Mufasa


#3

Something may go down. The way the USA is distancing itself from Israel means something will be up in the near future and we're seeing some political maneuvering taking place.


#4

Yep I really see it coming.

I think if the G8 really banded together and squeezed Iran it wouldn't happen but it's too late now.

No way Israel let's this pass. Too much of a threat.


#5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/26/israel-doubt-iran-pursuing-nuclear-weapons/

Israel is certain they are going for nukes. Hope everyone enjoys in increase in gas prices.


#6

The funny thing is that Iran is not even close to enriching uranium to levels that can be used for making a bomb. I think the best Iran has come up with is 4.5%, hence the country's offer to purchase uranium at 20% from the US and other countries.

Even the U.S. officials acknowledge that there is no evidence yet that Iran can make a bomb.

I'm not sure what a war would accomplish; Iran publicly announced ICBM missiles that can reach any point in Israel, shortly after Israel announced that it would be willing to carry out a military strike on Iran in "self-defense."

It's just a stupid pissing match. Sanctions aren't doing shit in Iran except hurting the population; unemployment is near 20% and people at the top are stupid wealthy, while the average salary there is $300/mo and the average rent is $1200/mo.


#7

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32755061

Iran already DOES or is VERY CLOSE to having at least one nukes worth of Uranium. And that's from the IAEA, which is a paper tiger at best, just like the U.N.

If they're saying it I think it's likely they at least have one if not more.

And yes Ponce, the Iranian people are in the shape they are because of our sanctions, not their leaders...genius


#8

These situations really really blow. We have these despotic tyrants who wrap themselves in their populous that doesn't even believe they're legit and it is nearly impossible to harm one and not the other. In this case it's definitely better to let Israel do the dirty work. It won't change anybody's mind about them and we get to say we didn't do it. What is going to be really entertaining is watching our rock ribbed president talk for 15 minutes and not really take a stand on anything.


#9

Why does everyone get a hard on at the opportunity to liken the political situation to the Cuban Missile Crisis? It's not even close.

If anything, we should be more concerned about North Korea (duh, they have nukes) but no, we need to worry about our ally, Israel.

By the way, you imbecile, who do you think created the environment for the mullahs to gain power? You can have one guess.

Iran is NOT close to building a bomb. Very prominent US officials have even claimed this. Uranium needs to be enriched to above 99% concentrations before you can have weapons-grade stuff; Iran has only been able to achieve yields under 5%. So, unless it PURCHASES the really pure stuff from Russia, China or elsewhere, Iran just isn't close to building a bomb. If they DID have a nuke they would have tested one one by now, they way India did a few years ago, just to "warn" other countries nearby about its arsenal. Iran has been very public about it's military capabilities as strategy of deterring enemies.

And it is not some uncivilized wasteland of a country with no military. It won't be another Iraq to just storm into. When Israel directs fighter pilots to run a "routine" mission over Iranian airspace and has one of their planes (rightfully) shot down, Israel will use that as an excuse declare war on Iran, and the US and other allies will rally behind Israel. It's so transparent it makes me sick.


#10

Jimmy Carter created the Iran we have today. North Korea has not threatened to wipe any nation off of the map ( BTW Bill Clinton and Madeline Albright gave them their nuke ability....seeing a pattern here? )

No one said it was an uncivilized wasteland. No one is talking about carpet bombing the entire country, just 10 or 12 well placed MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrator). Minimun civilian loss, and it should set Irans nuke production back about a decade or so. Any objections anyone?


#11

Iran is a dangerous situation partly because it is a sideshow to US-Russian relations. The Russians know that they can bust any 'strict' sanctions regime aimed at Iran by routing refined gasoline to Iran through Turkmenistan. The Russians announced several weeks ago that they opposed new sanctions on Iran and would not participate in them. Moreover, they seemed to dismiss the effectiveness of any U.S. sanctions. With that, the diplomatic option on Iran was off the table. Russia is not eager to see Iran develop nuclear weapons, but it sees the United States as the greater threat at the moment. Moscowâ??s fundamental fear is that the United States â?? and Israel â?? will dramatically strengthen Ukraine, Georgia and other states in the Former Soviet Union and on its periphery, and that Russiaâ??s strategic goal of national security through pre-eminence in the region will be lost. In other words, it's leverage and payback to the USA for perceived meddling in the Russian 'near-abroad,' as they call it (such as Georgia). In the 19th Century they called it "the Great Game"...only then it was between Czarist Russia and the British Empire). Vladimir Putin does not really fear a nuclear-armed Iran, as Russia has enough megatonnage in these weapons for every Allah-loving mullah in the country.

To reach weapons-grade material, the enrichment level of the U-235 isotope has to reach more than 90 percent. Little Boy, the Hiroshima bomb, used 141 pounds of enriched uranium, although a device can also be built from between 33-55 pounds of material, according to experts at Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico. A small plant with roughly 3,000 of the newer P-2 gas centrifuges at the just-discovered 'secret' Iranian facility could churn out enough 90% U-235 for 1-3 implosion-style devices per year.

The wild card is Israel, because a nuclear Iran under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an existential threat to the State of Israel (sometimes wacky dictators actually DO mean what they say..such as 'the Holocaust never happened,' or 'Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth.' Israel cannot act on it's own to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, due to geopolitical linkage, and because Iran WILL retaliate regionally with asymmetric warfare, the most likely option closing the Straits of Hormuz by mining them courtesy of the Revolutionary Guards Navy. As this would be economically unacceptable to the West (read America), the only logical thing to do if an Israeli attack cannot be forestalled would be for the US Navy to pre-emptively strike at the Revolutionary Guards Navy's waterway mining assets. The alternative of instant $225 a barrel oil would be unacceptable to the West; would plunge the World into a quick Depression and likely trigger a much wider conflict. (And the USA is not going to take Zbigniew Brzezinski's advice to 'shoot down the Israeli Air Force' on its way to Iran...something only Jimmy Carter's National Security Adviser would suggest)


#12

Actually 225 dollar a barrel oil would work into this bunche's "green" agenda quite nicely though if they couldn't convince the masses that it wasn't within their means to prevent it would also be a political disaster.


#13

See, what's hilarious is that Ahmadinejad never actually said that Israel should be physically "wiped off the map." I listened to the speech in Farsi and there's a great web site about the mistranslation.

He said the current Israeli regime should be wiped from the history books, meaning they should be REPLACED by another government (because the current government is an embarrassment, has committed atrocities against Palestinians, etc), not that there should literally be a second Holocaust killing more Jews.

Also, with respect to his Holocaust comment, although VERY poorly worded, his point was that in WWII there were a good 11 million people killed; to speak only of a Holocaust which is associated with the Jews (when referencing WWII) would be to deny the genocide against the other 5 or so million people that died. Now, KNOWING the world stance against Iran in general should have tipped off Ahmadinejad's advisors to keep the president's mouth shut about anything regarding Israel.

It's a very poor misstep for a political leader to say such a thing at all, but we all know demonizing an entity begins with propaganda. Naturally, all countries against Iran needed this sort of word play to start painting the desired picture.

Minimum civilian loss as part of a proposed short term solution that would cause ANY future government regime in Iran to STILL HATE THE US. Do you think it matters that the government has a bunch of Mullahs that are religious zealots? Are the North Koreans a bunch of religious zealots?

If Iran is bombed and there are civilian casualties and then a revolution (not related to the bombing) takes place, do you think the new government will forget about those casualties, even if it were a pro-West democratic government? No, the new government would still try to stand up to the US.

The whole argument that Iran should not have nukes is retarded. Why is the US not part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty but demands that other countries - namely those that Washington is not happy with - not have nukes? Answer that question honestly. Please do not respond to my post without an answer to this question that is well thought out and not some redneck response that "well, them dern terr'rists shouldn't have nukes!"

Why do you think Iran is sour with the US? Duh, they funded the Shah (who abused the shit out of his people), gave weapons and intelligence to Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, where a majority of an entire generation of young men who served ended up sterile or with fertility problems because of the chemical weapons that Saddam used and the US provided him.

Iran was laughing at the US accusing Saddam of harboring chemical weapons. Of course he'd have them; the US gave him a fucking stock pile for the war against Iran.

That's like me giving you a $100 bill to put in your pocket and then accusing you of having a $100 bill that belongs to me.

Iran would never launch a nuke at Israel. Never. The point of having nukes is that your neighbors have them so you want them, too, as a deterrent. If my neighbors on both sides have guns, I will want to own a gun. Simple.

The only chance for war is if Israel tries to pre-emptively strike Iran. What's the difference between that argument and Iran striking Israel first with an ICBM because "Netanyahu called Iran a bunch of terrorists" ? It's only a matter of perspective but the argument is equally valid in principle.

If Washington really wants to cripple the Iranian government, it should make it VERY easy for Iranian nationals to get visas (in general, offer great incentives for their professionals to leave the country) and it should discreetly fund a revolution in Iran. Or are coup d'etats passe these days?

There are plenty of ex-pats living the States that have been successful and see the US as their second home, a lot of them very prominent in their industries (e.g. Pierre Omidyar of eBay, Omid Kordestani of Google). Besides, Iranian culture actually predates Islam by a good 5,000-7,000 years, so in many ways the current population views Islam as an intrusion on what were once Iranian (read: virtually faith-agnostic) traditions and values.


#14

Well, as you say, $225/bbl oil would be very green. Think of all that nasty carbon not being emitted. Perhaps Obama could announce again, Now is the time the planet will heal, now is the time the oceans will stop rising: we are the ones the world has been waiting for.

I mean, a line like that shouldn't be put on the shelf after just one use.


#15

#16

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#17

Mid-October of 2009.

And sell all stocks immediately, buy t-bills or TIPS. Just a bonus for y'all. :wink: