Me thinks, and this is conjecture, I don’t have all the facts and could not have all the facts unless I worked for those arms of the government privy to them, that it is similar to the soviet expansion in the 20th century with one important difference, they are not interested in conquest. I mean this with respect to the ME. The Ukraine is a territorial dispute. The Russians believe it belongs to them and resent it’s solidarity. With the annexing of Crimea, I think the domino effect will eventually follow.
Without having put up a strong resistance backed by the military in the very beginning stages, there was no chance for Ukraine. The Soviets invested a lot into the Ukraine, they want it back… Somewhat understandably if you are seeing it from the Russian perspective. No I don’t support it, but I think it’s too late to do anything about it without major escalation. For Russia, they have nuclear weapons there (I think, I don’t remember any move to remove them during the fall and even if they did, it’s not something they would have telegraphed to the public.). So presuming the Ukraine still has some of Russia’s nukes and their are not a friendly state, that alone is motivation to get it back. Plus Ukraine has oil. It was a major target for the Nazi’s during WW2 to take out the ukrainian oil fields, a target they never managed to hit effectively.
As for face saving, yes partially but Ukraine is important to Russia and it’s west friendly moves and it’s desire to join the EU was too much for Russia to take, especially considering their nukes are there and our nukes are close to there…
With the ME, they aren’t interested in conquest, they want alliances and allegiances. As far as strategic positioning, their is no better geographically positioned state in the ME than Syria. It borders Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel and the Mediterranean. They are friendly with Iran and if they manage to restore Syria to Assad, Putin owns Assad. He can treat it like his own country. It tips the scale of power in their favor if they get Syria on their feet again.
So if Russia has Iran and a stable Syria on their side, the power in the region shifts heavily towards them. Iran gets bolstered as a major power player as sanctions are lifted, 1.7 billion they shouldn’t get ever is infused into their economy and they are a nuclear state. Once Iran gets what they want and they have strong ties with Russia and Syria, it won’t matter much to them if our sanctions ‘snap back’ or don’t. The only thing preventing them, at that point, from obtaining nuclear weapons is Russia.
Needless to say what effect this will have on regional tensions or the wider tensions between Shia and Sunni. With Russia as a power player in the region, the Shia side will be greatly empowered and the Sunni’s will feel threatened. The Shia/ Sunni tension is already rising. Why do you think the regional powers to the west aren’t too bent out of shape because of ISIS? Because ISIS is Sunni and so is Saudi Arabia. If they were Shia, you can bet the Saudi’s would be way more interested in their destruction.