[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“Lack of Intiative”?[/quote]
I was wondering about that too. It’s easy to talk, but what solutions are worth the price?
Huntsman said the other day something akin to “There is a day coming in the next 3-5 years where Israel will say, ‘Do you have our backs’ and the American President and people will have to be ready to answer” (not a perfect quotation). I think this is what is coming. I do, however, welcome anyone who has any serious alternatives in mind.
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The ‘state’ of Iran will not launch a nuclear weapon. Why would they, when 200 Israeli and 13,000 American ones by proxy would launch in retaliation. We have seen however how North Korea has been left almost to its own devices with a nuclear weapon. The Iranian government (not the people who by large are very nice and far more tolerant than many other predominantly muslim states) are many things but not stupid.
What the main concern would be an Iranian proxy, or a terrorist organisation infiltrating the program and stealing nuclear weapons, with catastrophic consequences. Yet this seems far more likely in Pakistan, a state openly descending into anarchy much more quickly than Iran.
The other concern is that a nuclear-armed Iran will trigger a nuclear arms race. Definitely the Saudis (who are far more belligerent than the Israelis) and possibly the Egyptians and Turks will start developing their own nuclear arms, possibly with covert help from us. The consequences of that are ultimately frightening.
Sanctions? Will only drive the Iranian people to the mullahs.
A ground invasion? Even though the attack of Iraq was mostly successful, the insurgency took its toll on well-armed, well-trained coalition forces. Collaboration like the British tried only resulted in growing religious fantacism. There is not the religious divide of Sunnis/Shiites/Kurds that there is in Iraq but the Iranian border with Pakistan would be porous and the troops better trained, possibly with Russian and Chinese military hardware. It would be a brutal battle. Not to mention the wrecking effect bombing the Straits of Hormuz and Saudi oil platforms would have on the oil market (a third of the international supply immediately out of action, you’re looking at $12 a gallon easily.)
I cannot see a military solution that is not catastrophic. Yet I doubt the ability of sanctions as well. I’m going away to have a further think.