T Nation

Iran Elections


#1

Anyone else hoping this is the spark that country needed?


#2

Absolutely.

In a sense it's almost a hopeful sign that there have been allegations of election fraud. Usually Iran doesn't need it; opposition candidates are banned from the start. There is a population that wants something different. It's a young country with a large student population, and actually a liberal tradition among the educated.

But I think Ahmedinejad is most likely the next president, whether by fraud or genuine popularity. I'm still hopeful but the news doesn't look too good.


#3

I've been watching them, but I'm not hopeful either. Ahmedinejad is probably not going to be unseated, but I think it's probably going to be by fraud. I don't think there's any way you can turn an election too close to call into a landslide victory by one side. 62% of the vote? I don't think so. He was behind in a number of polls throughout the whole voting process.


#4

So how strong will the opposition be to this apparent fraud?


#5

Are we going to see the Iranian version of Tiananmen square?


#6

http://tehranlive.org/2009/06/13/iranians-protest-election-results/


#7

It's not a fraud.
The majority of Iranians are, well, not exactly fond of experiencing more democracy or ditching A.
Iran consists of more then just students and western observers.

So...
you plan on going in and fixing this mess?


#8

Lixy, what is your take? (besides it's all America's fault)

Do you agree with the results or the protestors?


#9

Hopefully they can sort it out themselves.

But it is interesting. Last time, people blamed the election of Ahmedinejad as a result of Bush putting Iran into the Axis of Evil. This time, Obama is open to a thawing of relations between America and Iran, and what the hey? Ahmedinejad gets elected again.....so perhaps the Iranians actually got the government they want and deserve and it has nothing to do with American foreign policy.


#10

Interesting observation...that the "Revolution" of the 80's started with young people...and so does this desire for more freedoms. (Maybe that's the way it always is).

As we all know, the Religious Leaders of Iran are the actual ones running the Country. So any idea of "reform" will never work UNLESS (as someone mentioned) the change comes from within.

While I think that Ahmedinejad most likely won (due to the rural vote)...winning by an 80% margin is really hard to believe.

Mufasa


#11

Can I just say that there are some STUNNING (yeah, hot!) young women in Iran?

(Just a political observation!)

Mufasa


#12

Moussavi may be under house arrest.


There is more going on here than "getting the government they deserve."


#13

It would be nice.

However, I fear, it guarantees that Israel hits them this summer.

I agree that blaming a-thing's rise on Bush, was always BS.


#14

A fraud election is still a fraud election. I seriously thing Alahglmendskn lost that election, and that the government is doing what they can to stay in power.

I truly hope that these people will stand up... when countries overthrow horrific regimes... those are amongst the best moments in human history.


#15

You're right, Irish.

I guess the better way to put it is that they most likely didn't have to committ fraud for Ahmedinejad to win.

Iran of all places should know and understand the power of its young people.

Then again, maybe they do.

Mufasa


#16

You're right, Irish.

I guess the better way to put it is that they most likely didn't have to committ fraud for Ahmedinejad to win.

Iran of all places should know and understand the power of its young people.

Mufasa


#17

A few points:

  • Ahmadinejad is very popular in Iran. His policies took a hit after oil dropped, but he still enjoys tremendous popularity. His unshakable stance on the nuclear issue coupled with his modest nature helped give him a heroic image (the brave underdog resisting oppressive foreigners). Not with the wealthy, but the bulk of the population living in (relatively) dire conditions are behind him. No doubt about that.

  • Ahmadinejad won by 62%. Not 80% as Mufasa claims.

  • The Iranian political scene is way more democratic than many would have you believe. Sure, it's no Switzerland, but it's more democratic than all Arab league countries (with the exception of Lebanon and the Occupied Territories). Freedoms are another story though...

  • Iranians have been put off revolutions, but reforms are on the way. You might not hear about them or care, but they're there and happening everyday. They're not about the religious nature of the country, its inalienable right to enrich uranium or its fight to preserve the Persian culture, and that's why you probably won't see them on TV.


#18

Some background

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?col=&section=specialfeature&xfile=data/specialfeature
/2009/June/specialfeature_June10.xml


#19

Okay...

A win by Ahmedinejad by garnering 62% of the vote is very believable, mainly because of his popularity.

(The 80% must have come from Fox News!)

Mufasa


#20

This is why the Iranian nuclear program needs to be dealt with. It is not just the nutiness of the present leadership that makes their nuclear program a threat. If they have nukes and a revolution destroys central authority, their arsenal could be up for grabs.

Time has run out.