T Nation

Here We Go Again

As I write this - CNN is refusing to call Ohio for Bush. Bush has a 100,000 vote lead, and the odds of the provisional/absentee ballots swinging Kerry’s way is almost impossible. He’d have to win at a 75-25 clip just to break even.

What the hell is a Green State?

Looks like the media wanted another Florida so bad, they’re creating one.

How about that exit polling? Looks like we may be seeing the media bias leaking out into their polling techniques.

Sorry for the rant - it’s 1:15 a.m. and I’m ready to see someone declare a winner.

I project

Bush: 286
Kerry: 252

Bush is ahead by 138,953 at 98% counted, with a possible 250,000 provisional and absentee votes to count. That means Kerry would have to win slightly more then 77.7% of those ballots, and that is assuming all provisional ballots are legal.

I heard at work a little while ago that over 3000 lawyers are flying into Ohio to stir up trouble. Maybe it’s BS, but still…

What do you call 3000 lawyers at the bottom of the sea?

A good start! (sorry, BB)

They can try all they want. The people have spoken. The get out the vote program energized the Republican base more then they care to admit.

White House Chief of Staff Andy Card just claimed victory for the President, and said W. would speak later today. THe Ohio Sec. of State has said Bush has a statistically insurmountable lead, considering his current lead and the number of provisional ballots outstanding.

Bush also leads in New Mexico and Iowa.

Hopefully we will see Kerry’s concession speech soon.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
As I write this - CNN is refusing to call Ohio for Bush. Bush has a 100,000 vote lead, and the odds of the provisional/absentee ballots swinging Kerry’s way is almost impossible. He’d have to win at a 75-25 clip just to break even.
[/quote]

In 2000 they apparently called Gore winner. Guess they didn’t want to look the stupid again :slight_smile:

(source: some law student I know)

I voted for Kerry but it looks like W’s going to be president. But I’m actually happy the way this one is turning out. I hope that W’s win (a pretty big one actually) helps give his presidency some legitamacy for us democrats. While I don’t want another 4 years of liberal bitching (I can’t see how it could be even rationalized now), I would like to see Bush become the uniter he said he was going to be and he can’t do that unless he comes to the middle, even just a little bit.

JeffR I’ll change my name when it’s confirmed.

Northwester Law Prof Jim Lindgren comments on Ohio:

http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2004_11_00.shtml#1099474560

[Jim Lindgren, November 3, 2004 at 4:36am] Possible Trackbacks
Provisional Ballots in Ohio.–

At 4am ET early Wednesday morning, this official list of the number of Ohio provisional ballots by county does not have anything listed for Cuyahoga County.

Assuming that there is no way to manufacture new provisional ballots in the next few hours, it appears that Americans were lucky this time that the results in Florida and Ohio were not close. At 4am Wednesday, with 100% of the Ohio precincts reporting, Bush leads Ohio by 145,000 votes (51.1% to 48.4%)–very different from the effective tie in Florida in 2000 (just a few hundred votes difference then). People were so strongly expecting a razor thin result in Ohio that they haven’t yet fully adjusted to the fact that it wasn’t too close. Wins by more than 2% are completely ordinary and–absent special evidence that I am not privy to–not the sort of situation that should merit special scrutiny.

If I were Kerry, I would wait to see how many provisional ballots there are in Ohio (just to be reasonably cautious), assess whether Bush won any one of Iowa, Nevada, or New Mexico, and then make a quick decision. By the way, as I go to bed, Bush is leading by 3% in Nevada with 100% of the precincts reporting (and CNN just called Nevada for Bush).

UPDATE (4:40am Wed.): In just the last 45 minutes, almost half of the missing counties have added counts of provisional ballots, raising the total from 76,000 to 110,000.

2d UPDATE (4:50am): The official Ohio website shows a 134,000 vote difference between Bush and Kerry.

3d UPDATE (5:25am): The Ohio website still has 10 counties outstanding, but Cuyahoga has come through with a plausible number of provisional ballots. The total is now 135,000 but is likely to stay low enough that a Kerry concession on Wednesday is likely–perhaps with the slightest of reservations on his part just in case the count comes out shockingly in his favor.

he is conceding

Man, can’t Bush catch a break??? RLTW

rangertab75