T Nation

Gold Moves


#1

Good read:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/so-whats-behind-moves-in-gold.html

Headhunter, you better read this.


#2

He’s dreaming if he thinks the dollar will regain value.

Edit*

Robert Prechter that is.


#3

Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.


#4

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.[/quote]

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?


#5

And its time for me to shamelessly plug another Peter Schiff video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4hzx8_HnNE&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.schiffforsenate.com%2Findex.php%2Fsite%2Fvideos%2Fpeter_schiff_on_gold_prices%2F&feature=player_embedded


#6

Its not likely that the dollar is going to collapse overnight, even if peter is right in the lond run. Considering everyone and their mom is on the ‘dollar is dead’ bandwagon its probably going in the other direction.


#7

[quote]PRCalDude wrote:
Good read:

Headhunter, you better read this. [/quote]

I already had but thank you for posting that.

The Chi-comms recently made gold/silver legal for their citizenry to own. This was done to avert the massive money printing from going into hoarding of consumer items such as toothpaste and tobacco, which would cause inflation and foment unrest. The Chi-comms are terrified of their own people.

At the same time, the US gov’t told the Chi-comms that they were going to drive down the gold price to protect the dollar and the Chi-comm’s reserves. The comms went heavily short gold thinking they’d make billions. But our leaders used paper gold pyramided through derivatives on the COMEX while the physical price kept rising! The Chi-comms are on the hook for billions in shorts. They’re thinking of reneging on all those short positions which will collapse the COMEX (think giant bubble).

When it finally becomes realized that the US gov’t was suppressing the gold price with PAPER GOLD, with DERIVATIVE GOLD, the price will soar. I’m guessing, comparing total dollars out there with actual gold reserves of the USA, that we’re looking at at least $3,000 gold.

I’m actually now getting away from thinking of dollars as my money. I use gold and gold shares as my real wealth and usually convert excess dollars into those. We still own lots of US stocks and t-bills but convert cash excess to gold. I feel like a foreigner now who converts his dollars into his home currency though my home currency is gold.


#8

CNN:

"But against that improving backdrop, one indicator has turned distinctly bearish: Corporate officers and directors have been selling shares at a pace last seen just before the onset of the subprime malaise two years ago.

While a wave of insider selling doesn’t necessarily foretell a stock market downturn, it suggests that those with the first read on business trends don’t believe current stock prices are justified by economic fundamentals.

“It’s not a very complicated story,” said Charles Biderman, who runs market research firm Trim Tabs. “Insiders know better than you and me. If prices are too high, they sell.”

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/10/news/economy/insider.sales/index.htm

This might be of more interest to most here.


#9

[quote]John S. wrote:
JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?[/quote]

Works for me. Ought to be fun. Maybe throw a few charts and numbers in there as we go.
Probably should start a new thread and post the market results daily, kind of life the Tour De France. Have stage winners per week for the eight weeks.
What do you think?


#10

[quote]JEATON wrote:
John S. wrote:
JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?

Works for me. Ought to be fun. Maybe throw a few charts and numbers in there as we go.
Probably should start a new thread and post the market results daily, kind of life the Tour De France. Have stage winners per week for the eight weeks.
What do you think?[/quote]

When I was a kid, I saved genuine silver dimes and quarters from my paper route; sold the dimes in 1980 for $1.25 each and the quarters for $3 each. A few years back, put a huge chunk into gold at $270 an ounce (well, mostly gold shares). I’ve been following this market for 40 years.

We are now at the point where no country will trust another country’s currency. Either gold becomes the new instrument of settling international accounts or trade will die off and the global depression gets a whole lot worse.

Hating objective reality and hating the fact that they can’t spend more than they earn forever, our leadership will HAVE to turn to gold or face an outright revolution. Gold will float and budgets WILL have to balance or no one will trade/invest with you. (Would you invest in Zimbabwe?).

Minimum price -> $3000/ounce. If the price actually reflected the inherent value of US currency, it’d be $35,000 to $50,000 per ounce.


#11

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
JEATON wrote:
John S. wrote:
JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?

Works for me. Ought to be fun. Maybe throw a few charts and numbers in there as we go.
Probably should start a new thread and post the market results daily, kind of life the Tour De France. Have stage winners per week for the eight weeks.
What do you think?

When I was a kid, I saved genuine silver dimes and quarters from my paper route; sold the dimes in 1980 for $1.25 each and the quarters for $3 each. A few years back, put a huge chunk into gold at $270 an ounce (well, mostly gold shares). I’ve been following this market for 40 years.

We are now at the point where no country will trust another country’s currency. Either gold becomes the new instrument of settling international accounts or trade will die off and the global depression gets a whole lot worse.

Hating objective reality and hating the fact that they can’t spend more than they earn forever, our leadership will HAVE to turn to gold or face an outright revolution. Gold will float and budgets WILL have to balance or no one will trade/invest with you. (Would you invest in Zimbabwe?).

Minimum price -> $3000/ounce. If the price actually reflected the inherent value of US currency, it’d be $35,000 to $50,000 per ounce.
[/quote]

The whole point of this thread is that you can take a major financial haircut if you don’t understand what drives gold. We’ve had inflation since the 1970s but gold has gone up and down several times since then and a lot of people lost money on it in the 80s when gold prices collapsed.

There are several other ways of paying for goods and services besides gold. Beer is one example. Food is another. So is barter. Barter is common amongst companies today even though we have currency.


#12

I have been thinking of converting my money to gold also. Im worried that if i trade my dollars to gold now, it may drop in price in the future and i will be at a net loss.

I recently stopped looking at my money and cash as valuable and am thinking of converting all of it to precious metals. But then there is still the possibility of gold going down in price. Do you feel like it may go back down or will only climb indefinitely? Glad can be a bubble like any investment.


#13

[quote]PRCalDude wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
JEATON wrote:
John S. wrote:
JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?

Works for me. Ought to be fun. Maybe throw a few charts and numbers in there as we go.
Probably should start a new thread and post the market results daily, kind of life the Tour De France. Have stage winners per week for the eight weeks.
What do you think?

When I was a kid, I saved genuine silver dimes and quarters from my paper route; sold the dimes in 1980 for $1.25 each and the quarters for $3 each. A few years back, put a huge chunk into gold at $270 an ounce (well, mostly gold shares). I’ve been following this market for 40 years.

We are now at the point where no country will trust another country’s currency. Either gold becomes the new instrument of settling international accounts or trade will die off and the global depression gets a whole lot worse.

Hating objective reality and hating the fact that they can’t spend more than they earn forever, our leadership will HAVE to turn to gold or face an outright revolution. Gold will float and budgets WILL have to balance or no one will trade/invest with you. (Would you invest in Zimbabwe?).

Minimum price -> $3000/ounce. If the price actually reflected the inherent value of US currency, it’d be $35,000 to $50,000 per ounce.

The whole point of this thread is that you can take a major financial haircut if you don’t understand what drives gold. We’ve had inflation since the 1970s but gold has gone up and down several times since then and a lot of people lost money on it in the 80s when gold prices collapsed.

There are several other ways of paying for goods and services besides gold. Beer is one example. Food is another. So is barter. Barter is common amongst companies today even though we have currency.
[/quote]

I agree. I feel like if those times would be upon us, trade could comntinue with gold or things that will be of equal value. Like guns and ammo. Ammo specifically, among hundreds of other items.


#14

JEATON I like that idea.


#15

[quote]Gregus wrote:
PRCalDude wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
JEATON wrote:
John S. wrote:
JEATON wrote:
Hey John, how about a friendly wager, I say gold tops within the next four weeks and the dollar bottoms. Then large reversals in both. What kind of terms you want. Nothing big. Just for fun.

I will take you up on that, whoever loses has to make a thread stating the other person was right.

Tho if I can make one suggestion, instead of 4 weeks how about 8?

Works for me. Ought to be fun. Maybe throw a few charts and numbers in there as we go.
Probably should start a new thread and post the market results daily, kind of life the Tour De France. Have stage winners per week for the eight weeks.
What do you think?

When I was a kid, I saved genuine silver dimes and quarters from my paper route; sold the dimes in 1980 for $1.25 each and the quarters for $3 each. A few years back, put a huge chunk into gold at $270 an ounce (well, mostly gold shares). I’ve been following this market for 40 years.

We are now at the point where no country will trust another country’s currency. Either gold becomes the new instrument of settling international accounts or trade will die off and the global depression gets a whole lot worse.

Hating objective reality and hating the fact that they can’t spend more than they earn forever, our leadership will HAVE to turn to gold or face an outright revolution. Gold will float and budgets WILL have to balance or no one will trade/invest with you. (Would you invest in Zimbabwe?).

Minimum price -> $3000/ounce. If the price actually reflected the inherent value of US currency, it’d be $35,000 to $50,000 per ounce.

The whole point of this thread is that you can take a major financial haircut if you don’t understand what drives gold. We’ve had inflation since the 1970s but gold has gone up and down several times since then and a lot of people lost money on it in the 80s when gold prices collapsed.

There are several other ways of paying for goods and services besides gold. Beer is one example. Food is another. So is barter. Barter is common amongst companies today even though we have currency.

I agree. I feel like if those times would be upon us, trade could comntinue with gold or things that will be of equal value. Like guns and ammo. Ammo specifically, among hundreds of other items. [/quote]


#16

It’s interesting how you offer nothing of substance. All you do is go thread to thread and post stupid comments that attack the poster and not the post. You offer no argument or anything of any intelligence. Seriously, grow up and look at yourself. You;re pathetic.


#17

[quote]Gregus wrote:
I have been thinking of converting my money to gold also. Im worried that if i trade my dollars to gold now, it may drop in price in the future and i will be at a net loss.

I recently stopped looking at my money and cash as valuable and am thinking of converting all of it to precious metals. But then there is still the possibility of gold going down in price. Do you feel like it may go back down or will only climb indefinitely? Glad can be a bubble like any investment.[/quote]

Governments hate gold with a passion. Gold is like the ‘Dutch Uncle’ who tells you bluntly that you are fucking up.

If you think of dollars as your ‘home currency’, what you use to save and invest, then you should probably stick with dollars. But…and here’s the rub…Obama and all those politicians are counting on YOU giving value to their currency. As time goes on and they continually spend more than they take in, fewer and fewer people are going to be tricked into using dollars as a store of value. They flee to gold.

Do you really want to try and outwit and outguess political demagogues hellbent on destroying your savings? I don’t. And that’s why I simply convert my excess cash into gold. I have removed myself from their game (to a limited extent). I don’t accept substituting their pronouncements about what a wonderful currency the dollar is, in place of objective reality.

Sure, they may drive down the dollar price of gold. I don’t really care any more. They’re counting on me and people like me to give value to their increasingly worthless currency. Well, I don’t trade the product of my brains and labor for paper napkins any more.

They’ve written a big check on the backs of people like me. What’ll happen when the check comes back marked: ‘Account Overdrawn’?


#18

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Gregus wrote:
I have been thinking of converting my money to gold also. Im worried that if i trade my dollars to gold now, it may drop in price in the future and i will be at a net loss.

I recently stopped looking at my money and cash as valuable and am thinking of converting all of it to precious metals. But then there is still the possibility of gold going down in price. Do you feel like it may go back down or will only climb indefinitely? Glad can be a bubble like any investment.

Governments hate gold with a passion. Gold is like the ‘Dutch Uncle’ who tells you bluntly that you are fucking up.

If you think of dollars as your ‘home currency’, what you use to save and invest, then you should probably stick with dollars. But…and here’s the rub…Obama and all those politicians are counting on YOU giving value to their currency.

As time goes on and they continually spend more than they take in, fewer and fewer people are going to be tricked into using dollars as a store of value. They flee to gold.

Do you really want to try and outwit and outguess political demagogues hellbent on destroying your savings? I don’t. And that’s why I simply convert my excess cash into gold. I have removed myself from their game (to a limited extent). I don’t accept substituting their pronouncements about what a wonderful currency the dollar is, in place of objective reality.

Sure, they may drive down the dollar price of gold. I don’t really care any more. They’re counting on me and people like me to give value to their increasingly worthless currency. Well, I don’t trade the product of my brains and labor for paper napkins any more.

They’ve written a big check on the backs of people like me. What’ll happen when the check comes back marked: ‘Account Overdrawn’?
[/quote]

Oh i agree 200%. I already keep most funds in personal safes away from banks. Im just now getting into converting said funds into gold or silver. So i am new to buying Gold, but not new to independently managing and storing our families money. Thanks for the input.


#19

[quote]Gregus wrote:
It’s interesting how you offer nothing of substance. All you do is go thread to thread and post stupid comments that attack the poster and not the post. You offer no argument or anything of any intelligence. Seriously, grow up and look at yourself. You;re pathetic. [/quote]

Pathetic?

Do you even understand what the word means? You are the poster boy for the word pathetic. You only got an eye roll because that’s what I do when my children start talking crazy.

Yes, yes by all means dig a hole and bury your gold in it, and please make sure that you save your bullets bubble gum wrappers and tin foil as well you’ll need to make a hat in order to communicate with the other nut jobs telepathically when the government cuts all of the power lines.

Honestly, from the bottom of my heart where oh were are you coming from with this total and utter nonsense?

Is it the Internet? Is that what makes a rational person talk like an idiot? Do you even understand the basic fundamentals of an economic recession? Have ever actually read a book on the topic? Not a web site a real book written by a credible author on economic cycles?

No, I shouldn’t even have posted on this thread I know that. Most know enough to leave people like you alone to your ignorant rambling, but I, I just couldn’t help it.


#20

[quote]Gregus wrote:
I have been thinking of converting my money to gold also. Im worried that if i trade my dollars to gold now, it may drop in price in the future and i will be at a net loss.

I recently stopped looking at my money and cash as valuable and am thinking of converting all of it to precious metals. But then there is still the possibility of gold going down in price. Do you feel like it may go back down or will only climb indefinitely? Glad can be a bubble like any investment.[/quote]

If you don’t have a basic understanding of what causes an investment to move, then you probably should not be making those investments.

Here’s a chart of weekly gold prices for a couple years. Notice that it has a general rate of growth that appears fairly consistent. (green dotted line.) Right now it’s a little overextended, so yes, it could come back down some.

(That’s called reversion to mean.) OTOH, it has formed a triple top pattern which can indicate a major breakout and increase in price if it jumps above the blue resistance line. There’s an old saying, “test it thrice to make the breakout extra nice” or something like that. (This could also be a cup with handle pattern too.)

Now suppose gold does skyrocket. If it does, it might very well “go parabolic” like oil did. The price rate increases, then increases again. When prices go parabolic, they always revert to the mean, which is equivalent to crashing and burning when prices get too high. Oil did this. So did housing. So watch your back.

(Edited to get the quotation marks correct.)