Big Phillies fan. At the beginning of the season I thought they might have a chance to sneak into the NLCS if things broke their way but it has been amazing watching them get into the World Series. I went NLCS Game 1 and that was one of the most fun nights of my life, the stadium was absolutely rocking!
Obviously the Rays are the better team than the Phillies, but any team can pull out a series if they get a couple of breaks.
I am not as afraid of Garza, he’s a righty fastball pitcher, which is pretty much the only type of pitcher that Ryan Howard can hit- but when he does the ball tends to leave the yard. I think the Phillies will rough up Garza a little bit. I’m most afraid of Kazmir and now Price coming out of the bullpen.
Upton and Longoria are playing at another level right now. It’s going to be a little scary seeing Jamie Moyer matched up against them in Game 3.
Go Rays. I hope they continue their hot play because as a lot of people know, the Phillies are NOT the best team in baseball. The good news is the Rays will also hit in that dinky homer happy box the Phillies call home. The Rays are a great story and have the record to prove it.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Go Phillies. They are due.[/quote]
Agreed 100%, and the Rays have herpes.
[quote]itsthenickman wrote:
Was anyone else annoyed at the bias exhibited by Buck and McCarver. Even the pre and post game crew didn’t hide the fact that it was openly rooting for the Manny’s vs Red Sox. Notice I said Manny’s. That’s the name of the team the Phillies just played, right? [/quote]
you are absolutely right.
Joe Buck is a complete tool, always trying to plug his football commentary work, he wears a ton of make up, fox sweats him big time but I think hes a pretty-boy geek.
[quote]Bigpull wrote:
The good news is the Rays will also hit in that dinky homer happy box the Phillies call home…[/quote]
Biggest myth that won’t die this year.
Citizen Bank Park has a park effect of 1.029, that means it’s a slight hitter’s park (offense is inflated by about 3%). That park factor ranks it 15th. There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball. That means the cb* is smack dab in the middle of all the stadiums in terms of effect on the game.
For home runs it’s at 1.022, again not extreme, which ranks it 11th out of 30.
It’s not even within shouting distance of Camden Yards (1.359), U.S. Cellular (1.353), Coors, (1.299), Great American Ballpark (1.230, or Arlington (1.229) for example.
Of course, if you listen to John Smoltz, it’s the whole reason the Phillie’s have had any success. Of course, he would prefer not to look at the actual numbers which tell you that CBP is pretty much a neutral park these days.
where is the Trop in the field of 30? CBP is closer to top 3rd than the middle.
Trop has always been a slight to moderate pitcher’s park.
ESPN.com has it at .955, which means it depresses runs by about 4.5%. It’s hard as hell to hit a homerun there though, 0.850, 15% less homeruns than normal.
CBP is a slight hitters park while Tropicana is a moderate pitchers park. I think it might be interesting to see how that plays out. Philly was the 2nd-best road team in all of baseball this season, while Tampa Bay was only 40-41 on the road. However, that may be offset by Tampa’s awesome 57-24 record (best in the majors) at home.
The first game is so huge, I think if Cole Hamels can win the first game for Philly (definite possibility), that Philly can take the series. If Philly goes back to Tampa in the final two games needing to win both of them, there’s almost no shot because Tampa has been so good at home this year.
Go Phillies!!!
J.D Drew I hate you, you son of a bitch! you could of taken us to the world series and choked.
[quote]Petermus wrote:
Go Phillies!!!
J.D Drew I hate you, you son of a bitch! you could of taken us to the world series and choked.[/quote]
J.D. is hardly the problem.
Remember without JD we wouldn’t have even seen a game 6 or 7.
Papi is the real disappointing one this series.
[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
Trop has always been a slight to moderate pitcher’s park.
ESPN.com has it at .955, which means it depresses runs by about 4.5%. It’s hard as hell to hit a homerun there though, 0.850, 15% less homeruns than normal.
CBP is a slight hitters park while Tropicana is a moderate pitchers park. I think it might be interesting to see how that plays out. Philly was the 2nd-best road team in all of baseball this season, while Tampa Bay was only 40-41 on the road. However, that may be offset by Tampa’s awesome 57-24 record (best in the majors) at home.
The first game is so huge, I think if Cole Hamels can win the first game for Philly (definite possibility), that Philly can take the series. If Philly goes back to Tampa in the final two games needing to win both of them, there’s almost no shot because Tampa has been so good at home this year.[/quote]
So that would mean that the Sillies are going to have a harder time hitting their weak HR’s in Tampa but when they play in Philly the Rays have the same advantage as the Sillies.
[quote]Bigpull wrote:
So that would mean that the Sillies are going to have a harder time hitting their weak HR’s in Tampa but when they play in Philly the Rays have the same advantage as the Sillies.
[/quote]
?? Trop is a smaller park than CBP.
[quote]Bigpull wrote:
So that would mean that the Sillies are going to have a harder time hitting their weak HR’s in Tampa but when they play in Philly the Rays have the same advantage as the Sillies.
[/quote]
Phillies HR “strength index”: 22.7
Tampa Bay HR “strength index”: 272.5
Phillies road record: 44-37
Tampa road record: 40-41
One of those stats is made up…
Chase Utley didn’t have a hard time tonight hitting one out of the Trop! 
Gooooo Phillies! That ought to make those stupid cowbells quiet.
1-0 – Still a long way to go.
Hamels pitched a great game.
One thing is for sure-- Howard needs to find his swing before this series is over.
I missed that game last night but I sure as hell won’t be missing the game tonight. GO PHILS!!!
1 win down, 3 to go
Before the series, I thought that Tampa was a pretty strong favorite, but with that win I think the Phillies might be slightly favored to win the series. Tampa has been dominant at home but only average on the road, so I think the Phillies will be up 3-2 when the series goes back to Tampa; I think Rays probably win tonight, Hamels probably wins at home and either Moyer or Blanton get one at home.
I think there’s a (slightly) better than 50% change the Phillies can take one of the last two in Tampa, so I think the Phillies have a (slightly) better than 50% chance of taking the series now.
I thought that Manual should have made the Moyer the game 2 starter and put Myers at game 3. Myers has been way better at home this year and I think that Moyer’s soft-tossing style would work better in the Trop where the fly balls have trouble leaving the yard. In that scenario, Myers is still available to pitch game 7. Plus, I think the Phillies have a better chance of success against the righty Garza (as good as he’s been) at home then against the lefty Shields at the Troop.
Either way, I can’t wait for the game tonight!
Hey-- what’s that weather like down there in Philly? Game on tonight or what?
Tied at 1-1. Moyer is up to start-- let’s hope he finds his post-season game.