T Nation

German Chancellor Says...(Impt Read Gents)


â??If the euro fails, Europe will fail,â?? says Ms. Merkel, chancellor of Germany.

And if the euro failsâ?¦banks failâ?¦companies failâ?¦trade failsâ?¦and then US companies failâ?¦US banks failâ?¦

Who knows where this would lead? And only we seem to want to find out.

But what to do? A colleague warns us:

â??Itâ??s time to save every possible penny. Next year is going to be worse than 2008 â?? a lot worse.

â??Hereâ??s why:

The euro is going to fail. Ireland, Spain, and Italyâ??s sovereign debt cannot be financed.
Shares of even the biggest and strongest of Europeâ??s banks (Deutsche Bank) have begun to â??roll-over.â??

More QE in Europe and America will make it much more difficult for businesses to invest across borders. That will result in massive trade problems and could easily cause a global famine. Most people donâ??t realize how dependent the world has become on free trade for basics, like food. Hereâ??s what agriculture prices have done since July when QE II began. Vastly higher ag prices are not bullish for financial markets or world order.

Housing in the US is going to collapse, again. The various games that have been played to prop up the housing market in the US have failed. Tax credits, etc. havenâ??t workedâ?¦and they never had a chance. I have good contacts in this industry and it is completely bleak. With foreclosed properties making up 25%â??50% of the inventories, housing prices will continue to fall 10%â??15% a year â?? or more. There will be no new net demand for homes for a long time. Several major homebuilders will go bankrupt, including the largest, Pulte.

Lots of major US corporations â?? see GE â?? have unsustainable debt loads. These companies will end up bankrupt and will fire at least 50% of their employees over the next three years.

Muni/State finance: You guys have seen all of the numbers. Probably half of the states and munis in the US are being run in a way thatâ??s completely unsustainable. As these cuts are made it will have a big impact on the economy. See what happened to Cisco last quarter, all because of cutbacks at the local government level."


Lots of good links in the original.

The Great Collapse of the 21st century proceeds...


The megalomaniacal, socialist, super state of Europe needs to fail. The Euro was created solely for the benefit of the Germans. By having weak economies like Greece in the Euro, the Germans are able to enjoy a massive export economy without pushing up the value of their currency to a point that would limit their exports. This is also why the weak economies are being hurt so badly. Because the German economy keeps the Euro strong the weak countries can't devalue and get their economies going again.

That is why against all common sense countries with atrocious history of unsound monetary policy were brought into the Euro. They took a gamble on something they knew not to do and lost. What we need to do is protect ourselves and not prop up the European dictatorship. The failure of Europe will clear the way for a rebirth of democracy there.


Countries like Greece that have adopted the Euro are regretting it, obviously. Brussels have all the power, sort of like D.C. policymakers have all the power over US states.


I do not agree with your reasoning, but I agree that EU is bad and is a treath to democracy based on
that sentralisation of power in the bureacracy in brussel equal less national indipendence.


Which part of my reasoning do you disagree with? It is a fact that if the Germans still had their own currency it would be very highly valued due to their high level of exports. As the currency increases in value it becomes harder to maintain high exports. By being in the Euro with weaker economies holding down the valuation, the Germans are able to maintain their high level of exports.

The threat of the EU to freedom is a simple formula. As ever more power is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, freedom evaporates. Europe today is a soft totalitarian state. Breaking it up will be a good thing.


Yeah the EU was always heading towards failure.

The Financial Crisis rumbles on.

Didn't they try all these stopgap measures last time?


  1. you call EU a state. Eu is not a state, it doesnt have its own military. Its better to call EU a union.

  2. Eu is not socialist. Its a liberal project. It promotes liberalist policys.

  3. when it comes to the german thing I dont know enough about that so thats not what I was objecting to.


Germany is an export-driven economy. Was the euro created just to enhance that? Excuse my ignorance but if THAT'S what it boils down to, then the rest of Europe should simply go back to their local currencies.

More of the world needs to emulate the Swiss, though I know they have issues too.