T Nation

Geopolitical Catch-all


A truck full of plainclothes Russian paramilitaries and ordnance crosses into Georgia, joins a Russian-financed separatist cell on a mountain that belongs to a stable country, and begins bombing a Georgian town: “they were already a mess.”


I figured Iran would push the boundaries of the agreement knowing we will not act on minor violations of it. So they have and will violate little parts here and there at a time, nickle and diming the agreement. By the time we figure out those nickle and dimes add up, it will be too late to do anything. Though for the time being, I expect them to keep a low-ish profile at least until they can solidify all their trade agreements and reap all the benefits. As the returns diminish, I sense we will see a more aggressive Iran. Whether they will push it all the way to nuclear weapons is unclear, they may not need them to accomplish their goals. Conventional arms and high tech weapons are far more viable and usable to accomplish their goals of being a major power in the ME.


Short term, they’re obsessed with keeping the agreement and have no desire to push the boundaries.They’re winning big in Syria and Iraq and don’t want to jeopardize this once-in-thousand-years opportunity to reach the Mediterranean.

Trump is a conundrum for them - I’ve been watching a lot of regime TV - they’re afraid of Flynn and his Iranian obsession and his inability to tell shia and sunnis apart - but on the other hand they’re resentful of their Russian allies so the prevailing attitude is “oh fuck Trump is really working for Russia so we’ll have to go and beg Putin again to keep the nuclear deal”


Based on recent observations with respect to Russia and Turkey, Russia tends to respect coercive relationships. Somehow, shooting a Sukhoi out of the sky for barely brushing Turkish territory garnered enough respect from Putin that their relationship seems to be on the rise. That may be the formula with Russia.


Yes, that’s was the scenario in Ukraine and Georgia. Mind you, they can’t fool anyone who speaks Russian as it’s glaringly obvious they’re from Russia proper.

Most of these “local separatists” regularly use Russian military slang (such as “federalka” meaning “federal highway” for major roads and highways - there are no “federal highways” in Ukraine, only in the Russian Federation) so any video clip or an interview is a dead giveaway.

But Western media is always too sensitive and wants to give a “balanced” perspective on the events unfolding, giving RT a free hand to peddle their propaganda bullshit.


Oh I believe they are interested in keeping the deal in the short term, but minor violations will and have been tolerated. Detaining American Sailors, testing balistic missiles, Iranian fly-by’s at the U.S. Navy in the region have not garnered any response. But I do not believe they will go beyond these measures, at least not visibly.


It’s more a marriage of convenience for the time being, both sides are ready to stab each other in the back.


That’s as good as you can hope for with Russia. They stab us in the front.


Actually, it’s part of the quiet power struggle inside Iran as some arch-conservatives who have undue influence in the Iranian Navy and try this petty (petty in geopolitical terms) acts of provocation to negatively affect the deal.

But the main challenges for the regime are domestic - crushing dissent and reviving the economy, thereby alleviating political pressure.


Well, you’ve been there. Do you think reviving the economy will be enough to relieve the crushing dissent? Money appeases a lot of things, even tyranny.


This lady just called into NPR from Minnesota saying Jesse Ventura (former governor, wrestler etc) went to Russia after getting kicked off the TV here.
Apparently he now does a TV show in Russia where he has “the ability to talk about whatever he wants.”

She also said that country has “more Christmas decorations up than there are in Minnesota,” that the country has “gone Christian,” and that “that country has more freedom than we do here.”

I can’t make this up lol


I still laugh when I’m reminded that Jesse Ventura was a Governor.


Well he’s the same moron who went on to harrass Navy SEALs at a watering hole they regularly gathered at, who were at that time, mourning their fallen. Fortunately, the late Chris Kyle punched him in the face and the rest is history.


Lol hey… the beloved Ronald Regan was an actor gone Governor :wink:


Yeah…doesn’t get much lower than that…didn’t he win that lawsuit about the info in Chris Kyle’s book though?





Was just listening to that, had a good laugh.

You’ve got to expect it from anyone that brings up Ventura though…


Literally laughing in my office the entire time she was talking :joy::joy::joy: like holy shit move to Russia.


I just don’t remember that being in the book. It’s been a while though. But funny nonetheless. I am glad Jesse is in Russia and I hope he stays there.
I wish all these loud mouthed celebrities who thinks anybody cares about their political opinion, and promised to move is Trump won, would join him. That alone would improve the country.


Thanks, and I sincerely hope you’re wrong about that. Thanks so much for your response. It was helpful. I’ve been trying to parse out how the treaties that apply to the Ukraine differ from NATO, and that helped. I had read an Op Ed recently that was talking about Ukrainian “guarantees” vs “assurances” in terms of the international community, and particularly the US and the UK standing up for them against Russia. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to get into it.

Thanks. As far as I can tell, this was one reason so many people in my neck of the woods supported Bernie. Concern that she was more likely to get us involved in a war. This has been a little confusing. I’m still not sure what people would expect a good president to do with regard to Putin marching into the Baltics. Ideally, a good president uses diplomacy to prevent it if possible, but Putin is Putin and I’m not sure how much control we really have over him, unfortunately.

To all of you -

Thanks so much for responding. I’m bound to ask some dumb or uninformed questions, so brace yourselves. Thanks for being patient, and for taking the time. Let’s all hope this is a hypothetical situation that we never see realized.