T Nation

General Barry McCaffrey on Iran


U.S. public diplomacy and rhetoric about confronting Iranian nuclear weapons is scaring neighbors in the Gulf. They will not support another war. They have no integrated missile and interceptor air defense. They have no credible maritime coastal defense system to protect their ports and oil production facilities. Our Mid-East allies believe correctly that they are ill-equipped to deal with Iranian strikes to close the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.

They do not think they can handle politically or militarily a terrorist threat nested in their domestic Shia populations. A U.S. military confrontation with Iran could result in Sadr attacking our forces in Baghdad - or along our 400 mile line of communications out of Iraq to the sea. The Iranian people have collectively decided to go nuclear.

The Chinese and the Russians will not in the end support serious collective action against Iran. The Iranians will achieve their nuclear weapon purpose within 5-10 years. Now is the time for us to create the asymmetrical alliances and defensive capabilities to hedge the Iranian nuclear threat without pre-emptive warfare. We can bankrupt and isolate the Iranians as we did the Soviet Union and create a stronger Gulf Alliance that will effectively deter this menace to our security.

Makes a ton of sense, much more than the Instapundits, Hugh Hewitts, Mark Steyns and Anne Coulters of the world.


It makes too much sense, really. If they did it that way then Bush could go down in the history books as a "peace president" instead of a "war president". Not good.

In the end, though, Bush is The Decider, and God has already telled him he has to decide to bomb Iran. That's just the way it is.


China and Russia won't join in, if US invades Iran. Why ? Because they can't. Why can't they ? Because any conflict between countries the size of US, China and Russia would involve Nukes. As soon as one country uses Nukes, that's it, Stalemate.

This is why the Cold War ended. Not because Ronald Raygun built up masses of Nukes (Soviets currently have more than US anyway) it was because launching missles at each other, be it intercontinetal or to US allies in Europe would end in everyone launching off rockets which ends in no-one winning or a deciding result.


I have it on good authority that once they go nuclear, the Iranians will be much more willing to "go out with a bang" than the Russians were.

(I made a mistake with communism when I eliminated religion instead of using it for my purposes)


Satan, just wanted to say it's nice to have a voice of reason in these political forums and from the good book taboot!

Whadya think of that "Jaws of Satan" thread started about you awhile back?

Oh, and as far as what tme said once the decider decides it's decided.