[i]Over at Wizbang, a fascinating look inside the raw numbers of the latest Gallup Organization’s polls.
Skip the opening paragraphs about “trolls,” and dive into the numbers he dissects. If you look at the raw numbers, McCain is significantly ahead of Obama and his support is steady or growing in all categories. Meanwhile, Obama is steady or falling in all categories.
But Gallup reports Obama up over McCain by two points. Why? The weighting of voters - basically a guestimate about voter turnout - has changed over at Gallup, favoring Republicans during their convention but now favoring the Democrats. All polling organization weight the numbers. The question is how.
Now, here is where it gets fascinating. Wizbang re-weights the numbers to match ratios established by exit polls (polls of voters exiting the voting booth) in the past few presidential contests. Result: Obama 39%, McCain 45%. [/i]
The Wizbang analysis is found here:
Richard Miniter’s post here: