T Nation

Gallup Polls Accurate on Campaign 2008?

Richard Miniter:

[i]Over at Wizbang, a fascinating look inside the raw numbers of the latest Gallup Organization’s polls.

Skip the opening paragraphs about “trolls,” and dive into the numbers he dissects. If you look at the raw numbers, McCain is significantly ahead of Obama and his support is steady or growing in all categories. Meanwhile, Obama is steady or falling in all categories.

But Gallup reports Obama up over McCain by two points. Why? The weighting of voters - basically a guestimate about voter turnout - has changed over at Gallup, favoring Republicans during their convention but now favoring the Democrats. All polling organization weight the numbers. The question is how.

Now, here is where it gets fascinating. Wizbang re-weights the numbers to match ratios established by exit polls (polls of voters exiting the voting booth) in the past few presidential contests. Result: Obama 39%, McCain 45%. [/i]

The Wizbang analysis is found here:

http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php

Richard Miniter’s post here:

http://pajamasmedia.com/richardminiter/2008/09/20/gallups-internals-and-our-nations/#comments

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Mick:

VERY nice analysis EXCEPT one area:

“…The one group which turns out for democrats every four years is white women. Obama is going to win this group for the democrats once again…”

Palin (despite the yells of liberal pundits and feminist) GREATLY eroded into this group. That is proven not only statistically, but in my OWN “little world”.

When women at work are calling her “sister” and are applauding her because she not only has five kids, but a knocked-up one to boot, “just like them”…Obama has almost completely lost this group.

Like you said, this is appearing like a lost campaign for Obama UNLESS he goes into the election with a 5-7 point lead (Poll average).

At THIS point, that appears highly unlikely.

Mufasa

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.

My bad, Mick!

(I was typing and thinking about 2 thoughts ahead!)

It seems like Palin has pretty much captured as many of the white female demographic as the campaign needed.

One problem that I’ve found about ANY select group (like feminist) who think they speak for a whole group and/or demographic, is that they often get “blindsided”.

McCain pulled a “Statue of Liberty” on the whole campaign by picking Palin; and is now likely on his way to the White House.

Mufasa


Is it just me…

Or have Boxer and Pelosi been eerily silent since right before, and certainly after, the conventions?

Is it their positions?

What do you guys think those two up to?

(I haven’t even seen them much on TV; and I don’t think that there is a camera that Pelosi doesn’t like!)

Mufasa

This country contains some DUMB motherfuckers, unfortunately. Never overestimate the intelligence of the American people.

I saw a CNN bit where they were interviewing random people on the street recently. (This was right after the Repub. convention).

They interviewed one woman and she said, “Well, I was pretty much on the fence, but I think I’m leading towards McCain.”

“And what’s making you lean that way now?”

“Well, I like Sarah Palin.”

“What is it about her that you like?”

“Well, she’s a mom.”

*!@#^(*&#R_#@_!!!

I wanted to throw the remote through the fucking plasma. THIS is how you choose someone who could end up being PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES??!

Guess what?! Britney Spears is a fucking “mom” too, dildo!!

We’re all being FedEx-ed to Hell.

Sorry for going off on a tangent.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Is it just me…

Or have Boxer and Pelosi been eerily silent since right before, and certainly after, the conventions?

Is it their positions?

What do you guys think those two up to?

(I haven’t even seen them much on TV; and I don’t think that there is a camera that Pelosi doesn’t like!)

Mufasa[/quote]

Did you not hear the shrill, fingernails-on-the-chalkboard, squawking of Pelosi last week?

She was saying that the financial meltdown was “entirely Bush’s fault” and vehemently defended the Dems as being totally blameless in it?

But yes - the uber-bitches have been uber quiet about Palin. Makes you wonder if they weren’t told to sit down and shut the hell up.

[quote]Damici wrote:
This country contains some DUMB motherfuckers, unfortunately. Never overestimate the intelligence of the American people.

I saw a CNN bit where they were interviewing random people on the street recently. (This was right after the Repub. convention).

They interviewed one woman and she said, “Well, I was pretty much on the fence, but I think I’m leading towards McCain.”

“And what’s making you lean that way now?”

“Well, I like Sarah Palin.”

“What is it about her that you like?”

“Well, she’s a mom.”

*!@#^(*&#R_#@_!!!

I wanted to throw the remote through the fucking plasma. THIS is how you choose someone who could end up being PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES??!

Guess what?! Britney Spears is a fucking “mom” too, dildo!!

We’re all being FedEx-ed to Hell.

Sorry for going off on a tangent.[/quote]

The next election will be determined by nude female mud wrestlers.

Yeah…

I was thinking more in terms of their “silence” about Palin and the campaign overall.

“Keeping quiet” just seems so…well…“Un-Pelosi-ish” and “Un-Boxer-ish”.

Mufasa

[quote]Damici wrote:
This country contains some DUMB motherfuckers, unfortunately. Never overestimate the intelligence of the American people.

I saw a CNN bit where they were interviewing random people on the street recently. (This was right after the Repub. convention).

They interviewed one woman and she said, “Well, I was pretty much on the fence, but I think I’m leading towards McCain.”

“And what’s making you lean that way now?”

“Well, I like Sarah Palin.”

“What is it about her that you like?”

“Well, she’s a mom.”

*!@#^(*&#R_#@_!!!

I wanted to throw the remote through the fucking plasma. THIS is how you choose someone who could end up being PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES??!

Guess what?! Britney Spears is a fucking “mom” too, dildo!!

We’re all being FedEx-ed to Hell.

Sorry for going off on a tangent.[/quote]

You are confusing the maternal instinct with stupidity. You might not know this but statistically speaking women tend to be more pro-life than men. So a pro-life woman candidate is likely to do well with women voters.

Another thing about women is they multi-task much better than men. So the career woman raising a big family is something they can relate to.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Is it just me…

Or have Boxer and Pelosi been eerily silent since right before, and certainly after, the conventions?

Is it their positions?

What do you guys think those two up to?

(I haven’t even seen them much on TV; and I don’t think that there is a camera that Pelosi doesn’t like!)

Mufasa[/quote]

Governor Palin being on the Republican ticked has turned into the new 3rd rail of politics (at least for liberal women such as Pelosi, Boxer, HRC, etc). If they engage that target, they’ll get backlash from their female constituency.

If they engage McCain, Palin will engage them, and they will have to either shut up and take it, or retaliate against Palin…either way is a lose for them.

They realize it’s a lost cause and all they can do is wait for Palin to screw up, then they can confront her on issues.

pw:

Makes sense.

But it sure is strange to see the two of them so quiet after the move McCain made by picking Palin.

Mufasa