T Nation

Florida Primary


#1

More bad news for those who hate Mitt Romney (I'm thinking they better get used to bad news)

The latest polling data from Rasmusssen as of January 10th:

"Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/2012_florida_republican_primary

I'm thinking that Newt better turn up the heat on Romney if he wants to win....Oh wait ...Newt knows he can't win and his negative advertisements trying to hurt Romney have backfired on him. As I predicted!


#2

IF Romney takes SC then Florida; the nomination is essentially a "lock" (barring some major snafu).

All you have to do is listen to Newt on TV; it's the prideful, angry "Newt of Old".

His "We are Family" persona didn't last for long.

Mufasa


#3

Florida only has 25 delegates.

California and Texas?


#4

Lift:

Point taken.

I'm not neccesarily talking about the numbers; but the fact that Romney's "momentum" will be hard to stop; and the other candiates will surely begin to drop out. (Most think that Paul may be the only other candidate to "go the distance").


#5

When people start dropping out I think Paul will steal some of the anti-Romney delegates.

I think Paul is gunning for the brokered convention strategy.

This is a two man race its just time for the other candidates to realize it and then figure out the best strategy to beat Obama.


#6

No GOP candidate in the modern era has lost Florida and won the nomination.


#7

Fixed


#8

Romney will draw neither dems nor indies away from Obama.

Ron Paul, on the other hand, is daily converting dems and indies to reps.


#9

If Romney wins, Obama wins. I will never vote for that fake worthless POS, and most of the actual conservatives I know won't either. So sexmachine and Zeb, now you have a choice, hold your nose and vote for Paul in the Primary or hand the election to Obama by chasing away the constitutional conservatives, independents and Dems. You will only be left with the RINOs. Which across the country is about 25% of the Republican party.


#10

Any body remember Perot?

If Romney wins and Paul runs 3rd party, it will be very close to being a 3 way split.


#11

We are just talking about the primary. However, Florida is a critical "swing state" for both parties. Along with the PA, OH, WI, MI, VA, NC, IA, MO, NM, CO, NV, MO. The other states are either blue or red. Out of the crucial swing states that I've listed There are four really key states with the most electoral votes. Those are:

Florida- 29

Pennsylvania- 20

Ohio- 18

Michigan- 16

If you add up the numbers above that equals 83 electoral votes. All of the remaining swing states combined are a total of 64 electoral votes. That makes these four states the most crucial of the swing states and virtually assures that both parties will be dumping the most money in these four states. Now here is the key factor that no one is yet talking about. All of these call them "Crucial" swing states have republican governors!

There are a total of 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 270 wins the race. The red states equal a total 165 electoral votes. The blue states equal a total of 178 electoral votes. But here's the catch, with Romney as the nominee Massachuetts then gets taken away from the blue state catagory and into the red state. So the republicans pick up 11 more electoral votes. Giving the republicans 176 electoral vote lock. If they pick up the four "crucial" states that I listed above 176 + 83 = 259 they are now only 11 electoral votes short of winning the Presidency. Throw in New Hampshire's 4 votes, which will swing Romney's way and we are up to 263. That means if they win MO, CO, or NC they've won the Presidency.

The above scenario is one more reason that we can win with Romney and much more difficult to win with any of the other candidates.

For example Santorum would never win Mass on his best day. And there are less than a handful of swing states
which can equal Massachusetts 11 electoral votes.

Electorally this is an uphill climb for Obama with Mitt Romney as the nominee!


#12

First of all Paul is NOT going to run as a third party candidate for many reasons. His son is a well respected member of the GOP and is climbing in stature this would harm him politically. Secondly, you don't just "run" as an independent. You have to have the organization behind you. I realize that Paul has plenty of starry eyed 20 something backers but this is not enough.

Finally, even if Paul did run he would draw from both candidates as Paul is the lefty's dream on foreign affairs and the rights dream on fiscal policy.


#13

Thanks for that analysis, Zeb!

It is working out to be a VERY interesting election year!

Mufasa


#14

I just think it's sad that the best we can put forward is Obama and Romney.


#15

Bones;

Funny...I was talking to someone the other day about why in the hell ANYONE would want to run for Public Office, ESPECIALLY President (heck...even local County Commission races are starting to get ugly).

It's brutal, invasive and filled with half-truths and lies. It takes a huge ego, thick skin and confidence in ones self to run for President.

While we all may disagree with Romney and the President on a LOT of things; both men have these character traits in almost an OVER-abundance.

Mufasa


#16

I'll agree with you 100% on that one.


#17

It really is far more interesting than the McCain fiasco four years ago. This is going to be a real horse race. Perhaps not on par with the Bush/Gore race of 2000, but certainly I don't see a blow out coming in either direction. Do you Mufasa?


#18

Anyone have any conservative third party suggestions? If not, it's time to stay home.


#19

Please do it.


#20

I totally Disagree , I think he would prefer to run as a third party, He will have all the people that disagree with him equally divided and could possibly win